Twirling Drongo - 2015 Aussie Open and warm-ups

[Janik]

Karlovic beats Djokovic 6-7(2) 7-6(6) 6-4 in Qatar. Good old Ivo. I wonder if he saved an match points in the second set?
Plays Ferrer in the Semi. Novak and Rafa can concentrate on their Doubles. Edit - which I've just noticed is underway. Moncao/Nadal up by a tie-break set and an early break.

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

Twirling Drongo - 2015 Aussie Open and warm-ups

Of all the Slams, the Aussie Open is the one that most frequently throws up an unexpected finalist (and even winner) among the men; Wawrinka of course won it last year.

Taking the group of "never been to a final before", any most likely candidates to join the Stan and Tsonga list in 2015, or will it just be Djok v Fed?

[ad hoc]

Twirling Drongo - 2015 Aussie Open and warm-ups

Janik wrote:
The Shenzhen event is also on course for a #1 vs #2 Final, as Simona Halep and Petra Kvitova has more or less cruised through, though Halep did have to fight back from a set down in her opening match. The most fascinating name in the draw didn't make the Semis, though. Vera Zvonereva continues to try and come back, and she racked up a couple of wins including beating third seed Peng Shuai in the opening round. Alas it ended with yet another retirement against Bacsinszky in the QFs. Given she last retired from an event only two weeks ago and was apparently fit enough to start this one, the hope must be she is withdrawing as a precaution if she feels the slightest niggle.

Halep will face Bacsinszky in the final (I confess to never having heard of her before)(Bacsinszky, I mean. I have heard of Halep, who has reached such superstar status here in Romania that they interrupt programming whenever she wins a match, and she will soon be able to give up tennis and just spend all of her life on every singe advert that exists in the country)

[Janik]

Twirling Drongo - 2015 Aussie Open and warm-ups

Poland 2-1 France
A.Radwanska l to Cornet 4-6 6-2 5-7
Janowicz b Paire 6-4 7-6(8)
A.Radwanska/Janowicz b Cornet/Paire 6-4*

* - Poland were sure of a place in the Final after the Men's Singles, so the Doubles was a best of one set affair.

This is revenge for Poland for last years final, where France (Cornet/Tsonga) beat their side (A.Radwanksa/Panfil) 2-1. But also revenge for Cornet, as Aga got Poland's one in that final. Nearly a complete role reversal, then.

[ad hoc]

Twirling Drongo - 2015 Aussie Open and warm-ups

I've seen it reported as a 2-1 win for France, with the Poles retiring after winning the first set. Your explanation is more understandable, but its still being reported as a Fr win on the site I saw it at

[ad hoc]

Twirling Drongo - 2015 Aussie Open and warm-ups

Also on what I take to be the official Hopamn cup site http://hopmancup.com/results/completed-matches

Friday 9 January

Jerzy Janowicz (POL) d Benoit Paire (FRA) 6-4 7-6 (6)

Alize Cornet (FRA) bt Agnieszka Radwanska (POL) 6-4 2-6 7-5

Cornet/Paire (FRA) d Radwanska/Janowicz (POL) 4-6 0-0 ret

[ad hoc]

Twirling Drongo - 2015 Aussie Open and warm-ups

Nice pay day for Halep as she cruises past Bacsinszky to win 2 and 2. Hope this means the amazing improvements she made in 2014 are continuing into 2015

[ursus arctos]

Twirling Drongo - 2015 Aussie Open and warm-ups

Federer becomes the first man to win ATP titles in 15 consecutive years, and the third to win 1,000 matches.

Chapeau.

[Janik]

Twirling Drongo - 2015 Aussie Open and warm-ups

Lendl and Conners the only two ahead of him in wins. He might catch Lendl. Should if he plays in 2016 as well as this year.

Other titles went as follows
Brisbane (Women) - Sharapova bt Ivanovic from a set down. Standard.
Auckland - Venus bt Wozniacki from a set down. Impressive given her health.
Qatar (singles) - Ferrer bt Berdych in straights
Chennai - Wawrinka bt Bedene in straights
Qatar (doubles) - Monaco/Nadal bt Knowle/Oswald in straights
Hopman Cup - Poland bt USA 2-1. Radwanska bt Serena(!) in three, Janowizc l to Isner in two, Radwanska/Janowicz bt Serena/Isner in two.

Aga had taken one set off Williams in eight previous meetings. And that was on grass, where her magnificently quick hands make her a very serious threat. The last five meetings of the two (all on hard between 2012-13) saw Radwanska averaging 4 games won per match!
If Serena struggles in Melbourne, I think all bets might be off.

[Janik]

Twirling Drongo - 2015 Aussie Open and warm-ups

Most of the main interest this week will be the Aussie Open qualifiers later starting in a few days, but there are full tour events players are using as prep.

Highest ranked male player in action, following David Ferrer’s withdrawal from Auckland, is Ernests Gulbis. He is seeded #2 in NZ. Other probable Melbourne seeds involved there are Bautista-Agut, Anderson, Robredo and Giraldo. The Hobart event has a very good second Division field. Top seed, Fabio Fognini is ranked #18, but eighth seed Martin Klizan is only down at #34 and will likely be the 32nd seed in Melbourne after the withdrawals of Cilic and Tsonga from the Slam. Goffin, Kohlschreiber, Benneteau, Mayer, Cuevas and Chardy fill the gap.

However the biggest name to see on a Men’s drawsheet this week is Juan Martín del Potro, who has taken a wild card in Sydney as he begins his comeback from his latest long layoff due to wrist trouble. He plays Stakhovsky in R1 and possibly Fognini in R2. Fingers crossed it is good enough for him to play in Melbourne next week, as it is very good to have him back. His official ranking is #338 for the record, though he is clearly operating off wild cards and protected rankings.

Another player returning to action in Sydney is Nick Kyrgios. He was meant to play in the Hopman Cup but had to pull out due to a back injury. Kyrgios called time early on his 2014 campaign, finishing in September saying he was ‘emotionally spent’ and needed to recuperate to give his best for the Aussie season. So this back problem is ill-timed to say the least. One wonders if he is really fit, or if he is playing because he feels he has to? Hopefully not. Jerzy Janowicz, fresh from winning the Hopman Cup, will give it a proper work out in R1. Lots of heavy ball striking coming in that one, assuming Kyrgios is fit.

More of the top Women play, as the Sydney tournament is a Premier event for them. This is actually pretty standard on the WTA schedule, with Eastbourne and New Haven also being Premier’s in the week preceding a Slam. Top seed is #2 Simona Halep, eighth seed was #12 Flavia Pennetta. ‘Was’ because Pennetta is already out, losing in R1 to defending champion Tsvetana Pironkova.

The tournament has actually treated their Pironkova surprisingly shabbily. She won it as a qualifier last year (her first and so far only WTA title), but her ranking just wasn’t high enough to get her into the main draw this time. Rather than give her a wild card, which would surely have been the right thing, the Tournament Director instead put Pironkova into qualifying where she was the top seed and gave the free spots to two Aussie naturalised slavs (Gajdošová and Gavrilova. Gavrilova is even playing under the Russian flag!). Scheepers, Vekic and Gibbs have been beaten, only Scheepers taking a set. And now Pennetta as well in straights. Tsevtana is rolling again. And by playing the qualies, if she were to retain her title then she would get to keep* all her ranking points instead of just most of them. Plays Madison Keys next.

* - actually get them back, as the schedule this year runs a week behind last years. Pironkova has dropped from 37 to 67 on this morning’s rankings as a result, but can climb all the way back if she wins the whole shebang again.

Only other seed out so far in Sydney is Wozniacki, who retired hurt from her R1 match. Which is a concern. Hopefully just a precaution. Wins for A.Radwanska over Cornet (just hammering it home, and quite comprehensively as well 6-3 6-2), Kerber, Makarova and Cibulkova. Halep and #2 seed Kvitova had R1 byes.

There is also a Women’s draw alongside the Men’s in Hobart, but their field isn’t quite as strong. Top seed is home player Casey Dellacqua (rank #29), with Zarina Diyas (#31) on the opposite side of the draw. They are likely the only players who will also be seeded in Melbourne, though it wouldn’t take many withdrawals for Sloane Stephens (#34) or Camilla Girogi (#35) to join them.

Last years champ in Hobart was Garbiñe Muguruza, but she is playing Sydney instead this year. Faces Aga Radwanska in R2, which is a fascinating match-up.

[Janik]

Twirling Drongo - 2015 Aussie Open and warm-ups

Rogin the Armchair Fan wrote: Of all the Slams, the Aussie Open is the one that most frequently throws up an unexpected finalist (and even winner) among the men; Wawrinka of course won it last year.

Taking the group of "never been to a final before", any most likely candidates to join the Stan and Tsonga list in 2015, or will it just be Djok v Fed?

I wasn't ignoring you, Rogin. Just waiting for last weeks warm-ups to finish before formulating a response.

I suppose the main thing I would say is completely left-field runs to the Final like Tsonga's feel a thing of the past. Wawrinka was the 8th seed last year and had built to it over the previous 12 months, coming within a handful of points of beating Djokovic in the 2013 Aussie and then getting to the US Open semi before going now again to Nole in a brilliant five-setter.
Was it a shock? Yes, certainly, the h2hs against Djokovic and Nadal made it so. But was it well flagged as at least some sort of possibility? Also yes.
If you are looking for people who fulfill the criteria of really unexpected Men's slam finalists, then Cilic and Nishikori in the US last year were much more left field than Wawrinka in the Aussie. And even they had served some notice of what was coming.

I think there are good reasons for this. The gaps in standard at the top of the Men's game are wider now than previously. And the professionalism of training in the down-times is improved. What used to be a ten-month long slog, with the Aussie coming too early to be really ready for, is now treated as a series of short sprints that the top guys meticulously prepare for.

Remember that it isn't like those complete shock winners of the tournament went on a complete tear, beating all the big names; what happened was a massacre of the seeds early on, opening the field right up for someone else to step through. That is where the extra gaps and professionalism count, getting the big names to the last eight consistently. Check out the composition of the Men's Singles QFs in 2002 (Johansson's year) and 2014:-

2002
#7 Haas
#9 Safin
#16 Johansson
#26 Novak
Rios
Ferreira
Koubek
Bjorkman

2014
#1 Nadal
#2 Djokovic
#3 Ferrer
#4 Murray
#6 Federer
#7 Berdych
#8 Wawrinka
#22 Dimitrov

The 2014 US was open for something like this as so many of the leading lights were injured, off-form or distracted by new marriages. And even then the 'outsiders' of the QFs were the 10th, 14th and 20th seeds.

So I wouldn't look beyond the top 20 to the likes of Kyrgios or Vesely here. If you want an a likely name for a new finalist it will be one who has already flagged their potential. I went with Milos Raonic to do this in New York and I'm not dissuaded by his performance last week, which was of an extra-ordinarily high level. The Brisbane final with Federer was late-round Slam intensity. Similarly hard to look beyond Grigor Dimitrov. But I doubt any of these, or the Kei Nishikori, the other name I would have tagged had he not been in the New York Final and so not exactly fitting your criteria, will be one-offs in the way that Johansson was, it appears Tsonga will be and in all likelihood Cilic will end up as.

But just for a laugh, I will nominate a really left-field choice:- David Goffin. He is riding the crest of a wave at the moment.

[ad hoc]

Twirling Drongo - 2015 Aussie Open and warm-ups

Halep's withdrawn from Sydney with a stomach bug. Cue panic in the Romanian media that it;s something more serious and she risks missing Melbourne

[Seven Saxon Kings]

Twirling Drongo - 2015 Aussie Open and warm-ups

I'm going for Djokovic to beat Fed in the final. Think the GOAT will still be a little rusty coming off injury but hope he can prove me wrong.

How on earth did The Lovely Tsvetana not get a wild card? One ranking place off a direct entry anyway and defending champion? She's into the quarters anyway after Madison Keys retired.

[Janik]

Twirling Drongo - 2015 Aussie Open and warm-ups

They only had two to award, but it is ridiculous. It shows how the idea of wild cards has been totally subverted. Incidents like this should make the IFT seriously consider banning them.

The Tournament Director may defend himself by pointing out the G-ova's both won their R1 matches, against strong players in Bencic and Petkovic (everybody in this event is a strong player. And most are Slavs!).

Janik wrote: Last years champ in Hobart was Garbiñe Muguruza, but she is playing Sydney instead this year. Faces Aga Radwanska in R2, which is a fascinating match-up.

And an intriguing result; Muguruza wins 3-6 7-2(4) 6-2

Oh, and Halep's replacement in the Sydney draw was Nicole Gibbs, a 'lucky loser'. One double bagel defeat to Karolína Plíšková later, maybe she didn't feel so lucky? On the other hand it did add $10,220 to her back pocket...

[ad hoc]

Twirling Drongo - 2015 Aussie Open and warm-ups

Here's your fact for the day, Halep actually belongs to an ethnic group known as the Aromanians http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aromanians

I read somewhere that both Gheorghe Hagi and Hristo Stoichkov are claimed by the same group, though I have't seen any confirmation that it is the case.

[ursus arctos]

Twirling Drongo - 2015 Aussie Open and warm-ups

I have a friend who is Aromanian. She definitely considers Halep and Hagi to be, evidently Stoichkov (and Pete Sampras) are less clear cut cases.

[Janik]

Twirling Drongo - 2015 Aussie Open and warm-ups

Seven Saxon Kings wrote: How on earth did The Lovely Tsvetana not get a wild card? One ranking place off a direct entry anyway and defending champion?

I've only just clocked that del Potro was the other Sydney singles champ last year, and he got his wild card. I would love to hear how the TD justifies himself.

[ad hoc]

Twirling Drongo - 2015 Aussie Open and warm-ups

ursus arctos wrote: I have a friend who is Aromanian. She definitely considers Halep and Hagi to be, evidently Stoichkov (and Pete Sampras) are less clear cut cases.

Hagi is a real Balkan mix. He's often seen as being Macedonian-Albanian (hence the obviously Muslim surname).

Before Halep's rise, the most famous self- proclaimed Aromanian in Romania was, unfortunately, Gigi Becali.

[ursus arctos]

Twirling Drongo - 2015 Aussie Open and warm-ups

I see that your diacritical marks game is in mid-season form

[Janik]

Twirling Drongo - 2015 Aussie Open and warm-ups

Yeah, I'm currently bothering.

[Seven Saxon Kings]

Twirling Drongo - 2015 Aussie Open and warm-ups

Weird how Pironkova seems to have precisely two tournaments that she's good at, namely Sydney and Wimbledon, while rarely stringing two wins in a row together the rest of the year.

[tee rex]

Twirling Drongo - 2015 Aussie Open and warm-ups

The Czech* has won in Auckland.

(*to avoid spelling and squiggly bits)

[multipleman78]

Twirling Drongo - 2015 Aussie Open and warm-ups

I am looking at the draw for the best early matches in the mens singles. I think the best little section is Del Potro v Janowicz with the winner almost certainly meeting Monfils.

[Janik]

Twirling Drongo - 2015 Aussie Open and warm-ups

Best Women's section. This little beaut;

Sloane Stephens vs Victoria Azarenka
Taylor Townsend vs Caroline Wozniacki

Winner to the third round.

All four will have seen that and gone 'Oh f*ck'.

[Janik]

Twirling Drongo - 2015 Aussie Open and warm-ups

Notable first round matches

Men's
Novak Djokovic vs Aljaz Bedene
Dominic Thiem vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Juan Martin del Potro vs Jerzy Janowicz
Nicolas Almagro vs Kei Nishikori
Jiri Vesely vs Viktor Troicki
Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Ernests Gulbis
Mikhail Youzhny vs Rafael Nadal
Dustin Brown vs Grigor Dimitrov
Federico Delbonis vs Nick Kyrgios

Djokovic vs Bedene or Serbia vs Hertfordshire. Bedene is one of the form players of the ATP Tour so far this year; he now has 10 wins to his name. The only player to beat him is Stan Wawrinka. His body of work so far this year is good. This also pairs up a player the LTA look like persuading to become British with one who they tried this on, but failed.
Thiem was making a big noise this time last year, but has stalled a bit since the clay court season ended. Fairly disappointing to see him as a non-seed here, in fact. Bautista Agut is very capable on any surface and made his own substantial jump in recent season, but Thiem could be rather more and needs to start delivering.
Del Potro vs Janowicz needs little intro. That will be a shuddering clash.
Nishikori will have designs on the title, so getting someone first up who would be seeded high apart from injury like Almagro is not a great draw at all. Will be some fearsome groundstrokes hit in this one, for sure.
Vesely vs Troicki is the form encounter, seeing as both have a title from this week in their back pocket. Should be of a good standard, as both must be seeing the ball really well.
Kokkinakis is an 18 year-old Aussie of whom great things are expected. He made a big noise last year by winning in R1 and then facing Nadal in the second. And then got whupped, and up popped Nick Kyrgios to become the main Aussie hype (sorry, hope). A chance to show what he has learned and how he has filled out in the 12 months since then. Gulbis blows hot and cold and has a fearsome temperament on him, so could be ripe for a crowd-baiting session.
Talking of Nadal, facing Youzhny first up is non-ideal. Pretty rare to see the Russian unseeded. He is a veteran, so will be canny enough to take advantage if Nadal is still rusty, as he was in the warm-up events. Their hard court h2h is encouraging for those looking for a shock. Nadal leads, but only 5-4. That said, they haven’t played that much recently, with the few that have happened being comfortable wins for Rafa.
Brown vs Dimitrov will excite the crowd. Dimitrov’s smooth style against Brown’s all-out aggression and anachronistic serve-volley style.
Finally Delbonis and Kyrgios, which is really all about Kyrgios. Whoever he played, his match was getting on to this list. Can he live up to the pressure of being the star attraction?

Women’s
Tsvetana Pironkova vs Heather Watson
Sloane Stephens vs Victoria Azarenka
Taylor Townsend vs Caroline Wozniacki
Flavia Pennetta vs Camilla Giorgi
Julia Goerges vs Belinda Bencic
Caroline Garcia vs Svetlana Kuznetsova
Zarina Diyas vs Urszula Radwanska

Pironkova vs Watson matches up two players coming off brilliant weeks, who ought to be in great form. It also pairs two of the best thinkers on the WTA tour against each other. History says this is a very even match; the h2h reads 2-2, with the last three all going to a deciding set. Both Watson’s two wins, slightly surprisingly, have come on grass (at Eastbourne to be precise).
Stephens vs Azarenka appears to be some kind of an annual deal. It is probably the tie of the round, alongside del Potro vs Janowicz. Of their previous meetings The one that stands in the memory is the ‘choking’ semi-final of two years back. But Sloane had a chance of revenge for that in the last 16 last year, and didn’t come close to taking it. In fact, Stephens won five games in both matches (1-6 4-6 in 2013, 3-6 2-6 in 2014). Few doubts who the crowd will side with here.
Townsend is another young American talent who will believe she can upset Wozniacki. Probably wrongly given how Caro is playing, but it will be fun to see her try.
Pennetta vs Giorgi is an all-Italian affair, featuring one of their established Fed Cup stars against a young pretender for her crown. Watch for Giorgi’s mad Dad in the stands.
Roles have been reversed somewhat between Goerges and Bencic, a Bencic comes in as the seeded player this time. A style contrast, Bencic is an all-rounder; Goerges has a forehand. It isn’t hard to see where either got their inspiration from!
Caroline Garcia still has a long way to go to prove Andy Murray’s prediction right (he called her a future no.1 a couple of years back). But she is beginning to move in the right direction; her ranking is up to #36 and she is more than capable of beating Sveta here.
As with Garcia, Diyas is a youngster seemingly on a fast track for the top. U-Rad will be a test, especially with the qualifying wins under her belt. Hard one to call, this.