A ses Mark, une dernière fois: Tour de France 2023

[Kevin S]

Dedicated thread time, no?

Cav has got the nod, of course. And it wouldn't have made sense for Astana to have signed him for any reason other than to give him this tilt at breaking Merckx's record, but things making sense hasn't always been the Astana way.

Having a look through some of the squads now and Ineos's team looks quite the thrown-together patchwork to me.

[matt j]

I think I should have a good opportunity to watch this year, just like last, so very much look forward to extended coverage (I think on Peacock, I hope free on Peacock).

Pogacar still eligible for the white feels kind of crazy.

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

It's a route this year that completely avoids everywhere I've ever been in France except Paris (Normandy, Britanny, the Vendee, the Loire and the Riviera), so there'll be lots of bits I can wistfully check out the look of and dream of future holidays.

[Kevin S]

So who are the contenders for the Tour-without-Pogacar-and-Vingegaard (i.e. whom do we think gets on the podium, or wins if those two don't)?

Ben O’Connor
David Gaudu
Jai Hindley
Enric Mas
Richard Carapaz
Someone from INEOS who happens to be in the right form
Adam Yates (Pog's #2)
Wilko Kelderman (Vingegaard's #2)
Simon Yates
Mattias Skjelmose (this is the 'youngster on a hot streak' pick. Surely not a chance of sustaining it over three weeks though.... is there....?)

Any shouts for other possible would-be-winners?

[longeared]

The teams being announced yesterday and today was a surprisingly un-newsy event, there wasn't much unexpected in there at all beyond what we knew last week. Ag2r have gone all in behind O'Connor so there was no van Avermaet, didn't really expect to see Quinn Simmons for Lidl - Trek given that he won the American national champs on Sunday, there was no surprise late call up for Evenepoel and that was it. Cavendish had to be picked for Astana, that was the entire purpose of the deal in the first place, his win in the last stage of the Giro was the only time that team has won a World Tour race in the last two years and beyond Lutsenko there's nobody else who could change that. Difficult to see him beating all of Jakobsen / Ewan / Groenewegen / Philipsen in a straight fight, he could do with a crashtastic day or hang in until the sprinty stages in the final week by when some of the others might have gone home. INEOS are an absolute hot mess at the moment - it's become apparent that Nico Portal was the brains there, not Brailsford or Ellingworth - and having prioritised the Giro they hilariously admitted they're going for stages here. How are the mighty fallen.

It should be a two horse race for yellow. Vingegaard has bossed every race he's done this season ... apart from when he came up against Pogacar at Paris - Nice. Vingegaard's race has three possible eventual outcomes, he wins, he finishes second to Pog, he DNFs. I'm not sure where Pog's form is after he broke his wrist, there's always a degree of bluff and mystery in this but the team didn't send him to the Tour of Slovenia which suggests he isn't where they wanted him to be. Beating up modest opposition in the nationals didn't tell us a great deal other than he got round. If he doesn't win then there will be a lot of soul searching and revising his programme next year - UAE don't pay a shitload of money to buy big name climbers for Pog to win Paris - Nice and Amstel Gold.

We could do with both the big guns being on form and avoiding crashes / Covid, the worst thing for the race would be for one of them to be eliminated from contention early and the other just strolls to victory because they're clearly a level above everybody else. Whoever is best of the rest won't be within five minutes of the winner. Gaudu and Carapaz were all over the place in the Dauphine. Hindley's on Tour debut and with his Giro background he could add himself as an appendix to the long list of big name Italian riders who come to their debut Tour and fall flat on their face. Some of those climbs look as if they might suit Enric Mas in full diesel mode so I'd have him to round out the podium.

[Sits]

Pog to ride himself into form in the first week and win.

I like Hindley out of the also-rans, and Matteo Jorgensen to embarrass his teammate Mas.

[Kevin S]

Here's a website I've not come across before: https://cyclinguptodate.com/

Some of the posts on there are the sorts of lists that appeal to me, like who are the riders at this year's Tour who have won a stage at the Giro and the Vuelta and need one in France to complete the set (answer: Carapaz, Chavez, Landa, Arndt), and which new national champions jerseys will we see in road race and time trial stages? Answer - https://cyclinguptodate.com/cycling/...tour-de-france

I was also thinking Mas to be best of the rest, but can kind of visualise a situation where Adam Yates rides so closely with Pog that they present a double threat and he gets onto the podium. That said, you would have to make the equal case for Wilko Kelderman with Vingegaard, and I couldn't easily call between him and Yates. Better edit and add Wilko to the list above, mind.

[Sits]

I would sneak Jack Haig onto that also-rans list too. Better than Landa these days I’d say.

[longeared]

Haig has done the Giro - Dauphine - Tour trifecta, so he'll be knackered. Although I agree with the argument that he's now better than Landa "who loses a load of time in the first week and spends the rest of the race trying to catch it up" as Pippa York once memorably put it.

Adam Yates can't do a third week, which is always his big negative. Going to ignore the argument there that week three doesn't have all that much in it this time. It'll be interesting to see how much protection he gets across the Basque and Pyrenean stages across the first week, which will quietly tell us a lot about how the team views Pog's prospects.

[Sits]

I’ve just realised none of McNulty, Bennett, Formolo, Ullissi or Vine are in the squad supporting Pog.

[Kevin S]

Inner Ring has written about the contenders for the green and polka dot jerseys. The articles are well worth a read, as always.

Points:
OOOOO -
OOOO - van Aert, Philipsen
OOO -
OO - Jakobsen, Girmay
O - Pedersen, Groenewegen, Kristoff
Full article at: https://inrng.com/2023/06/tour-de-fr...ey-contenders/

Polka dot:
OOOOO - Vingegaard
OOOO - Pogačar, Ciccone
OOO -
OO - Carapaz, Pinot, Alaphilippe, Bernal
O - Martinez, Landa, S Yates, Woods, Gall, Teuns, Powless
Full article at: https://inrng.com/2023/06/tour-de-fr...rs/#more-43188

[Kevin S]

Trentin not mentioned in the articles on the points jersey and I do just have a sneaking suspicion he'll go well. I mean, he's on Pog's team and all that, but I wonder if he will have a free role to pick up points across a range of stages. A very wily operator, but I suppose van Aert is that with bells on.

Edit: and Trentin is 75/1 for the green jersey, making him a fair each way shout. Kristoff is another at very long odds, but you're relying on him to dominate the bunch sprints I think.

[Sits]

Thanks Kev, fascinating. I see they didn’t bother doing White, with Pog in the race.

[Hot Orange]

Here we go, then. Cadel Evans looks terrified in his punditry role on ITV. Hopefully he’ll ease into it.

[Billy Casper]

Interesting to see that Pete Kennaugh has joined a Disney boy bad.

[diggedy derek]

Why are some riders in interviews wearing facemasks? Covid, pollution, illness, just generally being careful?

[ursus arctos]

They were required near the end of the Giro after multiple COViD outbreaks and some teams/riders have kept the protocol

[delicatemoth]

Riders who I like despite their stinky teams:-

UAE - Pogacar
Ineos - Bernal, Kwiatkowski
Bahrain - Landa, Arndt (had no idea he'd ended up there)
Israel - none. Why sign Pozzovivo if you're not going to bring him to Grand Tours?
Jayco - meh
Astana - Lutsenko maybe? Ugggggh they have Moscon, just crash out en masse lads

[delicatemoth]

Carapaz and Mas both look fucked after a coming together, they've lost minutes. Carapaz eventually got going but Mas is still standing roadside with medical staff, not looking in any hurry to get back on a bike.

[delicatemoth]

Pogacar finishes 3rd, taking four seconds on Vingegaard. Mas is indeed out of the race.

[Kevin S]

A Yates 1-2! Incredible!

[ursus arctos]

Carapaz may be as well

[The Red Max]

Blimey, that was a great stage. We've got 3 whole weeks of this to look forward to.

[Lobachevsky]

that was like a one day classic. brilliant stage and great finish.

[longeared]

Managed to avoid the results until the ITV highlights, which felt pleasantly old school. A lot to unpick from that anyway, absolutely delighted to see the mighty Cofidis in the thick of it so early. Never really cared for the Yateses all that much but was impressed with that as a ride and then enjoyed Pog celebrating behind. That was certainly a show of strength from UAE, more so than Jumbo who looked to be riding purely defensively throughout. First week climbs can often tell us who is and isn't on form, Hindley getting distanced from the front group wasn't a great sign, O'Connor was miles down, Rodriguez as the only INEOS rider in the front group was an amusing surprise. Good ride from Corbin Strong to lead the third group in, pity he rides for Start Up. Apologies to Enric Mas for jinxing him and I see Carapaz is now out too.

Was going to remark on Kennaugh but see Billy has beaten me to it. Brave of Friebe to call Indurain Basque as I always thought he was Navarran. Cadel Evans misnamed a team in the finest Kirby style by twice referring to "Lotto Jumbo". Surprised they didn't show the footage of the burning cars at the San Sebastian start in 1992, maybe we'll get that tomorrow.