Rafa’s Parisian Pad

[Satchmo Distel]

Nadal v Novak final seems nailed on.

[Janik]

Struff and Londero were not about to prevent that. But there are some slightly better chances of an upset coming in the next few days. Fognini and Zverev both have recent or recentish clay court wins in Masters Series events against Djokovic, and Nishikori and Wawrinka have both properly challenged Nadal on the surface over the years. Sometimes.



Sad for La Monf :-(

[Evariste Euler Gauss]

That fine against Tatishvili - her entire R1 loser earnings - for being rubbish - are there many precedents for such a penalty? Sounds really weird.

[Janik]

It's about the same thing as the fuss regarding Katie Boulter entering then withdrawing when obviously injured, and the rash of 1st round retirements that happened last year. Basically the Tennis authorities have dug a hole for themselves with a well-meaning but ill-thought through change, and are trying to legislate their way out of it.

A few years ago it was widely accepted that the prize money didn't spread down far enough, and that players around the 100 mark and lower were struggling to cover their expenses. So over the past decade, the R1 and R2 prize money in Slams has been driven up and up, at a rather faster rate than the winner's cheques have increased. The idea was, this was a way of getting money to those players who make up the bulk of the ~200 players that go out in these rounds. However, that now makes it worthwhile for a player to schlepp to a slam when he or she cannot realistically compete. So we now have various rules to try and prevent players simply taking the money that their previous efforts have entitled them to. Anna Tatishvili is a case in point. She is a former top 100 player, but has been injured for the best part of two years. So she hasn't earned anything in that time as there is no sick pay in Tennis. Protected rankings only last for 24 months as well - if she wants to take advantage of what the rules say is hers by right of previous efforts, she has to make her way to a slam. It's quite possible she is in urgent and dire need of the €40k. But the slams only have the amount of money they do because they are spectator spectacles. And a clearly injured player simply showing up for the money is not a spectacle. Hence the rule to try and prevent players doing that.

Basically, it's a mess and they need to think of a better way of redistributing income to lower ranked players than the current bodge.

[Satchmo Distel]

Could they have independent fitness tests to ensure a player is likely to be able to get through a match unhindered?

[Janik]

Quarter-Finals

Men’s

Stan Wawrinka Sui [24] vs Roger Federer Sui [3]
The two best male Swiss players ever do battle. But down the years it hasn’t been a particularly even contest. Roger Federer leads the h2h 22-3, and the Slam title count by a similar margin (20-3). Stan Wawrinka would be the all-time hero of Swiss Tennis, if he hadn’t been thoroughly eclipsed by another close to his own age [and that is leaving Martina Hingis and her 5 singles and 20 doubles slams and 200+ weeks as World No.1 to one side]. However mostly cordial relations between the two have been on the surface, that’s got to sting. That 2014 Tour Finals incident may have been a bit closer to the truth than the public front normally presented. I’m not saying they are constantly fighting, but there is a bit of needle there, surely? Frenemies, to use a modern phrase.
And if they are not, maybe they should be more like that from Wawrinka’s perspective? In the ESPN Documentary Unmatched on Martina Navratilova and Chris Evert, Navratilova admits to listening to a coach for a number of years that she had to stop being really good friends with Evert if she wanted to dominate her (Evert and Navratilova even practiced together on the morning of Slam finals when they were playing each other! ). And this worked – Martina had a multi-year lock on Evert at the height of their careers. So yes, maybe Stan needs to take a leaf out of Martina and Sofia Kenin’s book and be altogether less respectful of his GOATiness.
If there was ever somewhere to do it, Roland Garros is the place. Wawrinka’s three wins in the series have all been on clay, with the really important one being the Quarter-Final four years ago, which Stan won in straight sets on his way to the title. You know the one, it was the last match Federer played on these courts prior to a giving the tournament a miss for the next three years. That respect really is something of a river isn’t it? It just flows in the one direction...
Can Stan do it again? Well, the powerful attacking game is still just about there. More and more of it is coming out with each month, each tournament, even each match at this event. But match fitness? Now that is a different issue. Both are fragile these days, and Wawrinka was sorely tested in the last round when he won a dramatic 4+ hour match against Stefanos Tsitsipas. That is going to come at a cost to a body not used to such exertions. Federer, by contrast, has had it serenely easy, not dropping a set on his way to this stage and only seeing one of the 12 go beyond 10 games (Casper Ruud forced their third to a tie-break).
There are no secrets here in terms of style, and the play ought to be spectacularly attacking. But I go back to two days ago and think, even if these days Tsitsipas on clay is probably a greater challenge than Federer, dealing with the pair of them back-to-back is too much.
Federer in four.

Kei Nishikori Jpn [7] vs Rafael Nadal Esp [2]
There are only a handful of players whose chances of upsetting Rafael Nadal on a clay court over 5 sets that I would put at >5%. But Kei Nishikori is one of the few (Djokovic obviously, Thiem, Tsitsipas, del Potro, Fognini and Wawrinka are the others). His sheer work rate and rapid hands, and ability to generate power from seemingly minimal backswings are all major assets in this match up. Because there really is only one way to win this sort of game, and that is to hold the baseline and fight fire with fire. Drop back and Rafa will grind you down into an extra sprinkling of top dressing.
The problem for the Japanese is to play the way he needs to play to win, all out aggression and hitting allied with lightning-quick movements in defence, relies on being very fresh. And he can’t be that. Not after going four sets against Tsonga in R2, then five (to 8-6 in the fifth) in R3 against Djere, followed by another five concluding yesterday against Benoit Paire. At least that wasn’t a full 4 hours in one go, as the match was split by the setting sun at the end of set 3 on Sunday. But equally that means Kei has effectively played two full normal length matches in the last two days, and that having only had a single day to recover from the extra tax that a Slam five setters imposes on players.
Past experience would indicate some caution, as famously Nishikori’s conditioning is remarkable (when he hasn’t broken down into injury that is); we will always go back to him coming off the back to two epic five setters against Raonic and Wawrinka and still beating Djokovic in the 2014 US Open Semis, which must go down as one of the most remarkable matches of this decade. But the challenge of taking on the most dominant combination of player and surface in Tennis history is another matter.
Lots of reason to worry on one side of the net? And to concern Rafa at the other end? Nope. Three of the four matches to get here have been cakewalks, and actually the one that wasn’t against Goffin in R3 (won three sets to one) as probably useful as an exercise in sharpening Nadal up for the business end of the event. Which starts in earnest here, even if I’m still going one-sided. Nishikori will have to serve big and hit hard and flat with no margin for error, and do that completely consistently for four hours if he wants to win and reach his first French Open semi (previous best is QF x2). I can’t see him being physically capable of doing so.
Nadal in three.

[Janik]

Women’s

Sloane Stephens USA [7] vs Johanna Konta GBr [26]
Prior to this year, Sloane Stephens and Johanna Konta had not played a match. Coming into this one, they have had two previous meetings. And the winner both times was... Konta. Straight sets in Brisbane at the start of the year, and then coming from a set down on the Roman clay a few weeks ago. So that means that the Briton is the favourite to make it through to her third Slam Semi-Final on a third different surface? Well, not so fast.
Sloane Stephens was a revelation here last year, looking entirely comfortable on clay as she built a set and a break lead on Simona Halep in last year’s final. She appeared on course to win the title and have done so by playing superbly until a slight case of finishing line jitters and a much, much larger dose of Halep putting her foot down and saying “This. Will. Not. Happen. To me. Again!” turned the match around and saw the Romanian take the title. But the dénouement isn’t important here, it’s the level of play that Stephens had achieved before it that matters. And that was brilliant athleticism and court coverage in defence allied to judiciously applied power to counter-punch when the opportunity arose.
It could be argued that what Stephens potentially brings makes for something of a nightmare match-up for Konta, given her need to punch through her opponents from the baseline. However, I’m not entirely buying that. Yes, Konta will need to land four, five, six telling shots into the corners without overhitting, but actually that plays nicely into the main area of improvement in her game over the last few months; her self-belief in her shots, her level of trust that she can execute time and again looks to be back and the inexplicable unforced errors on rallying balls are way down. Rhythmic play will actually suit Jo, repeatedly making the same shot time after time will just groove her shots. For Miss Process, this sounds ideal rather than scary.
I mean, there is a reason why Konta’s clay court results have massively improved, and that isn’t just luck (though that did play a part – where would she be now if she hadn’t saved five match balls in R1 of Rabat against Wang Yafan, which was the start of the confidence bubble?). Her movement on the surface has certainly improved, and that has come from a greater sureness underfoot that means her base to swing from is more secure. But it’s also the whole package, the shot making and the choices. However, please cut the drop shots out for this one, Jo. Sloane is much too quick, she will simply get there and biff the winner past you.
Another aspect of Konta’s game which is back to something like 2016 levels is her serve. That is functioning well, probably as a linked benefit to everything else feeling much more secure. And that matters a lot, as Jo’s serve is a potent weapon. So is Stephens of course, but here we come into an issue for the American, and that is her form coming in has been rather more patchy than her opponents. The confidence structure for Sloane is less sturdy, and that may mean it’s her rather than Konta who will overpush.
I’ve rather talked myself into this, but in all honesty I think the oddsmakers (who make Stephens the marginal favourite) are wrong and this one goes Jo’s way. Konta in three.

Markéta Vondroušová Cze vs Petra Martić Cro [31]
Both Marketa Vondrousova [sorry, I’m dropping the diacritics in the body of this] and Petra Martic are making their Slam Quarter-Final debuts in this match. But whilst that circumstance is the same, it’s also rather different and that is down to their ages. Vondrousova is 19; this is where she will have been planning on being and expecting to be. She will feel it’s just the first of many deep runs into Slams. Petra Martic, by contrast, is 28 and whilst she still has a few years to play at the top she doesn’t have the bulk of her career ahead of her. She won’t be looking at this as the only time she will play such a match, but she must be aware that the overall stock of such opportunities is necessarily limited, so it’s essential she makes the most of the chance. Particularly when she finds herself facing an equally green opponent.
In terms of game style, both prefer to operate from the baseline but with slightly different approaches to each other. Martic has a typical female clay courter style, top spun shots with margin and extremely good and efficient side-to-side footwork. An approach somewhat reminiscent of how Roberta Vinci (a player who grew up on clay) described her approach when she was closing out her signature win against Serena Williams in the US Open; “Just put all the ball in the court. And run!” Vondrousova is also well made for clay, but she is a little more experimental at times with decent hard to read drop shots being a proper weapon.
One notable thing about this match-up is that the previous h2h is more extensive than in some women’s matches given the more open draws on the female side (4 meetings); is all recent (matches only in 2018 and 19, but then Vondrousova is still a teenager); and is notably lopsided – Martic leads it 4-0! That includes an important match for both only a couple of months ago, the final of the Istanbul Cup. Martic went into that without a WTA crown to her name (0-2 in her previous Finals) and Vondrousova with a 1-1 record in Tour finals. Vondrousova won the first set 6-1, but Martic turned it around and was going away by the end for a 1-6 6-4 6-1 victory. There is undoubtably a psychological blow there in the Croat’s favour. However Vondrousova will be telling herself that was close, as were the other matches, which were all straight sets but all also included at least one 7-5 set or breaker.
The wild card in all of this is nerves, of course. If one player finds herself tight as a drum and the other doesn’t, then it could all be over pretty rapidly. However, neither showed any signs of that during R4 matches that were nearly as big, Vondrousova running all over an admittedly out-of-sorts Anastasija Sevastova and Martic digging out a great comeback victory over Kaia Kanepi. In personality terms, I think the Czech is the least likely to suffer from it – she has an arrogance about her, a way of carrying herself as if this is not exceptional but merely inevitable. That she belongs at this level. Maybe a little off-putting on a personal level, but a good thing for a Sportsperson trying to operate under high tension. So if any player is going to suffer from this, I think it might be Martic.
Or neither. Hopefully neither. And if that is the case, then it comes down to who can deliver the better Tennis. On that one, I’m going Czech. Vondrousova has that little bit more about her. Given the history I think it will take a long time to close out, but Vondrousova in three.

[Janik]

Could they have independent fitness tests to ensure a player is likely to be able to get through a match unhindered?

There will be legal and moral problems with that. A medic cannot order someone to do something, they can only advise. Strongly advise if the situation is clear maybe, but it's still up to the patient what they do. And if the patient choses to ignore strong advice, the medic is bound by confidentiality so can't inform others that the patient is making a strange choice.

The opposite does happen, i.e. with Boulter and similar situations. Players who want to withdraw and still claim 50% of the R1 prize money need to go to the on-site doctor and be examined before they will be paid. They can't just not play and claim the money, they genuinely must have a problem. However the clear difference there is that the choice of entering or not has been made by the player, the doctor is just confirming the player has a genuine reason for making that call.


Some people who watched the match are disbelieving that Tatishvili was below an acceptable standard.

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

At this rate they're going to have to come up with a new name for Henman Hill/Murray Mound at Wimbledon. I'm not sure what goes with Konta, though.

[ursus arctos]

Konta's Kuppe?

[Gangster Octopus]

Actually it'd be Konta's Kop. Same source, but known to the British.

[Janik]

That was jaw-dropping. I was saying nothing as I didn't want to jinx it.

Konta only lost one point on serve in the entire second set. And that was a double-fault (at 30-0 as she served it out). Anne Keothavong said pre-match that Jo had several more levels she could improve. I think she just found all of them.


Konta's win means we will have a debutant Slam Finalist from the bottom half of the Women's draw.

[Evariste Euler Gauss]

Due to a combination of holiday absence from any telly with Eurosport, work and other commitments, that was the first action I've been able to watch in this tournament (and in fact the first live tennis I've seen at all since this year's Aussie Open). How lucky am I to get that match (which I saw all of) - just awesome!

[Janik]

Federer-Wawrinka at one set all. Wawrinka is 1/1 on break points (he broke Federer by taking four points in a row from 40-15 down in game four of the second set). Federer is 0/7 (only won set one on a breaker). However, the longer and deeper it goes, the more the efforts of two days ago become a factor, one would have thought...

[Janik]

Nadal breaks Nishikori in the second game of the match. And that is what it feels like when all the air rushes out of a court...

[Janik]

Well, the crowd on Chatrier are getting to watch two masterclasses today. Jo Konta's little gem, followed by the latest casually tossed-off bit of perfection from Rafa Nadal. It seems likely that both of those matches will be completed before Federer and Wawrinka finish. That is all Roger's fault - he is now 1/15 on converting break points! Just a little more efficiency and he would already be back in the locker room. That said, the one time he did break was rather crucial as he was a break down in the third set at the time. Federer eventually won that on another breaker and currently leads 2-1, but 3-2 down on serve in set four.

[Janik]

Five games. That is all Nishikori got. It only lasted until just now due to a rain delay. That break also appears to have helped Federer - he and Wawrinka resumed at 3-3 in the fourth, but Roger has just broken and is serving for the match. The tournament would really like him to wrap things up now, so Vondrousova-Martic has a good chance of getting played and finished as scheduled.

[Janik]

We have had a match point and a break point in this game. Currently at deuce.

[Janik]

Another mp comes and goes...

[Janik]

But the third is converted.

[Janik]

OK, so on to the girls. And actually, the knowledge of the Konta result adds another layer to Vondrousova-Martic, because however impressively Jo played the idea of playing her rather than any of the other possible options in a Roland Garros Semi-Final is an attractive one. No-one would expect a Slam semi to be easy, but some challenges are more daunting than others.

[Janik]

The joys and pains of the Tennis scoring system, part 731:-
15 minutes ago everything looked brilliant for Petra Martic. Vondrousova was serving to stay in set 1 at 5-6, and fell 0-40 down, i.e. treble set point. A poor drop shot in the next rally from Martic sparked the Czech, who then won the next four points to hold, rushed through the breaker 7-1, and now is 3-0 up in set 2 with barely a point going Martic's way. 16 of the last 18 points going against in fact. Martic has to hold at 0-3...

[Janik]

She did, and she also made Vondrousova take a tumble chasing a drop shot. That also happened to Marketa early in the last round, and was quickly followed by the only games she lost all match!

[Janik]

And indeed Vondrousova rather gifts the break back.

[Janik]

Part 732:-
Vondrousova regained the break immediately and held to lead 5-2. She had a match point on Martic's serve then, and also at 5-3 on her own. That was instructive - a godawful double fault with both attempts being close to bouncing before the net. Martic has just held serve (a tad sketchily) to make it 5-5.

Vondrousova had shown very few signs of nerves up until they hit her like a truck. She was just pushing the ball in and hoping against hope that Martic would gift it to her. Martic didn't (which was actually something of a change from the preceding games where that was exactly what was going on).