So, to the most thankless job in the world, attempting to put down some pointers for the year ahead in golf. I haven't successfully predicted the winner of a major championship since Woods won the 2007 PGA at Southern Hills, but here goes:
Despite losing his number one position, Woods will continue to be the story in golf in 2011. For the third year running, the season begins with everyone asking "will Woods ever return to form?", after he tore up his knee in 2008 and then tore up his marriage in 2009. 2010 really was a very poor year indeed for Woods, he only made the top 5 twice in the 15 tournaments he entered, and for the first time ever in his career has not been invited to the season-opening Tournament of Champions in Hawaii today. Woods often skips that event anyway but it's always nice to be invited. If Woods has a 2011 similar to his 2010 he'll end up somewhere around 40th in the world rankings.
So, what to expect. First, the Masters. Fate would demand that Lee Westwood should win this - Ian Woosnam, and Fred Couples both won the Masters as the very next major after they became world number ones, and it would be fitting for Westwood to follow suit. Lee started last year's Masters 67-69-68 to lead, he just needs to do that again and throw in a Sunday round. If not Westwood, then it's hard to see past Woods or Mickelson, "lefty" in particular if he can bring any kind of form to Augusta - he's been in the top ten there an astonishing 11 times in the last 12 years and if he can even walk round the course I'll have him as an each-way bet.
Then to the US Open. If Woods is going to have a "comeback" major win in 2011, it will be here - It's at Congressional in Bethseda, and Woods won, the last time a PGA Tour event was played here, in 2009. Other Congressional "form horses" are Anthony Kim and Jim Furyk, so watch out for those two if their form looks good - Furyk in particular had a solid 2010 and is the sort of player who wins US Opens. Ernie Els won the 1997 US Open at this course, and might be worth a lengthy each-way bet.
The Open Championship has made such a fool out of most pundits in the last few years that it seems churlish to predict what will happen a week ahead of it, let alone six months. It's at Royal St.George's this year, the course where complete unknown American qualifier Ben Curtis came in with a decent score in 2003 and sat, probably as incredulous as the rest of us, as Woods, Singh and notably Thomas Bjorn all messed up chances to match his score. Three of the last four Open Champions had not won a major before, and I can see that continuing. A European winner would be nice, and a British one even better. Rory McIlroy or Paul Casey would be my choices, but it'll probably be Ian Poulter.
The USPGA is returning to Atlanta, where the Tour Championship has been held the last few years. Jim Furyk (him again!) won that last year, so seems a reasonable e/w bet for this one too, and Tiger Woods, if he can remember how he used to play, won in 2007 with a 23-under-par 257 to win by eight shots. Worth noting, though, is that Luke Donald kind of backed out of winning the Tour Championship last year, and Nick Watney played well too - Watney in particular would fit the "Toms, Beem, Micheel" prototype of recent PGA champions (mid-ranking US pros winning one big event then fading back to relative obscurity). I'll say Watney.
One final prediction for 2011: someone will shoot a 58 in a main PGA tour event. Last year, Paul Goydos and Stuart Appleby became the 5th and 6th players in history to shoot 59 on the US Tour, and Ross Fisher and Johan Edfors shot 61s on the European Tour. It's only a matter of time before someone, somewhere breaks the magical 59 barrier in a proper event.
There you have it then, Rogin's long-range look at golf in 2011. I have more chance of hitting the pin from 200 yards with a 4-iron than I do of seeing any of these come off!
Despite losing his number one position, Woods will continue to be the story in golf in 2011. For the third year running, the season begins with everyone asking "will Woods ever return to form?", after he tore up his knee in 2008 and then tore up his marriage in 2009. 2010 really was a very poor year indeed for Woods, he only made the top 5 twice in the 15 tournaments he entered, and for the first time ever in his career has not been invited to the season-opening Tournament of Champions in Hawaii today. Woods often skips that event anyway but it's always nice to be invited. If Woods has a 2011 similar to his 2010 he'll end up somewhere around 40th in the world rankings.
So, what to expect. First, the Masters. Fate would demand that Lee Westwood should win this - Ian Woosnam, and Fred Couples both won the Masters as the very next major after they became world number ones, and it would be fitting for Westwood to follow suit. Lee started last year's Masters 67-69-68 to lead, he just needs to do that again and throw in a Sunday round. If not Westwood, then it's hard to see past Woods or Mickelson, "lefty" in particular if he can bring any kind of form to Augusta - he's been in the top ten there an astonishing 11 times in the last 12 years and if he can even walk round the course I'll have him as an each-way bet.
Then to the US Open. If Woods is going to have a "comeback" major win in 2011, it will be here - It's at Congressional in Bethseda, and Woods won, the last time a PGA Tour event was played here, in 2009. Other Congressional "form horses" are Anthony Kim and Jim Furyk, so watch out for those two if their form looks good - Furyk in particular had a solid 2010 and is the sort of player who wins US Opens. Ernie Els won the 1997 US Open at this course, and might be worth a lengthy each-way bet.
The Open Championship has made such a fool out of most pundits in the last few years that it seems churlish to predict what will happen a week ahead of it, let alone six months. It's at Royal St.George's this year, the course where complete unknown American qualifier Ben Curtis came in with a decent score in 2003 and sat, probably as incredulous as the rest of us, as Woods, Singh and notably Thomas Bjorn all messed up chances to match his score. Three of the last four Open Champions had not won a major before, and I can see that continuing. A European winner would be nice, and a British one even better. Rory McIlroy or Paul Casey would be my choices, but it'll probably be Ian Poulter.
The USPGA is returning to Atlanta, where the Tour Championship has been held the last few years. Jim Furyk (him again!) won that last year, so seems a reasonable e/w bet for this one too, and Tiger Woods, if he can remember how he used to play, won in 2007 with a 23-under-par 257 to win by eight shots. Worth noting, though, is that Luke Donald kind of backed out of winning the Tour Championship last year, and Nick Watney played well too - Watney in particular would fit the "Toms, Beem, Micheel" prototype of recent PGA champions (mid-ranking US pros winning one big event then fading back to relative obscurity). I'll say Watney.
One final prediction for 2011: someone will shoot a 58 in a main PGA tour event. Last year, Paul Goydos and Stuart Appleby became the 5th and 6th players in history to shoot 59 on the US Tour, and Ross Fisher and Johan Edfors shot 61s on the European Tour. It's only a matter of time before someone, somewhere breaks the magical 59 barrier in a proper event.
There you have it then, Rogin's long-range look at golf in 2011. I have more chance of hitting the pin from 200 yards with a 4-iron than I do of seeing any of these come off!