He still can win the green jersey by winning in Paris. He'd need Petacchi and Hushovd to be a little way back, but I'm not sure how far. Anyone know the points available at the finish? And any intermediate points?
Just been doing the sums. Assuming neither of the top 3 place in the time trial, and the intermediate sprints (there are two, worth 6,4 and 2 points each) on sunday are won by others - then i think Cavendish needs to win and hope that Petacchi doesnt come 6th or better, and that hushovd doesnt come 2nd.
It's rare to have a breakaway on this stage (apart from the Simeoni incident, I can't think of one even being attempted), so it's quite likely they'll contest the intermediate ones, and equally likely they;ll have teammates trying to spoil it on each other...
Given Cavendish has just ridden comfortably along at the front of a peloton that was doing, I don't know, 45 km per hour for the whole of today's stage and blasted home at over 70 km per hour at the finish, why doesn't he similarly win TT stages? I suppose the question in reverse might be why don't the TT specialists just go for it on stages like today, if they know they can take a minute or so out of the rest when they do?
I guess that only answers part one of your question. Part two is that even the fastest cyclists, like Cancellara or Contador can't ride faster than the peloton if both are going flat out, because of the advantages of sharing the work and better aerodynamics.
Aye. Some sprinters *are* excellent time-triallists, at least for prologues and the like - Hushovd is the best example.
Can Cav become more all-round? Probably, but it's not clear how much incentive there would be to do so if it made him dominant in terms of stage wins...
I should also have said, you almost never see a *serious* or *committed* attack on the last day, at least before they reach Paris.
It may be that Contador is just following Schleck's times, waiting to up the pace later on if he needs to. Or Schleck may have chcuked everything into the start and may struggle later. Or Contador may be in real trouble.
The official tour website only had Contador at 2 seconds down on Schleck at the first checkpoint, not the six that the TV guys were suggesting. That sounds right to me, I thought the clock read 23:12 when Contador went through rather than 23:16.
Also, in terms of position on the stage, Schelck was joint 23 at the first check, and 35th at the second check, which suggests that Schleck has gone out hard and is failing to keep the pace up, rather than Contador going out a bit gently and uping it.
Super test by Tony Martin, the only one anywhere near Canch. He's an excellent climber, too, I think he's going to be a serious GC prospect if he ever gets to a team with more in its mind than Cav...
An unintentional consequence of Renshaw's disqualification was that Cav was able to show that he can win races without the need for his train in full flight. That finishing kick is outrageous.
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