Driving Away From Home (Park) - Division Two / Championship 2023/24

[longeared]

My general rule of thumb in this league is that 50 is the magic number for survival, the only times I can remember teams going down with that were Leicester 2008 and that bonkers 2013 season mentioned above when half the division looked like it might get relegated. Somebody will have a collapse and get nowhere near it - Blackburn look in the shit, one win since mid-December, no manager bounce from Eustace and they've got an horrible looking run in, it's difficult to see where they're going to get another ten points from given that they couldn't beat Millwall home last night. Swansea have got an interesting finish, lots of games against teams in the bottom half and they might slide into real trouble without really noticing.

[Sunderporinostesta]

You know that team that comes from nowhere to get relegated on the last day having not been in the bottom three all season?

That's us that is. We've gone woeful.

Wooooaaaahhhh. Hold your horses there.

[Sunderporinostesta]

I'm thinking it will be higher than 50 this season

Easily. There’s a bunch of strugglers who are now on the up and a bunch of mid tables who’ve lost four out of five……..or worse. IE us.

[Fussbudget]

Christ your form is even worse than ours! That 44 to 47 points bracket is currently full of teams that can't buy a win to save their lives at the moment isn't it. Wednesday will be fine

[Logan Mountstuart]

Yep. Add Bristol City to the NE anxious society too.

[Disco Child Ballads]

I've just noticed Sunderland's poor form - 5 defeats in a row! Maybe even they are not safe.

[Sunderporinostesta]

I've just noticed Sunderland's poor form - 5 defeats in a row! Maybe even they are not safe.

Our problem is we’ve already announced the current caretaker will be in the job until the end of the season…….and Jack Clarkes out for six weeks.
Having to sack a semi permanent caretaker after already sacking two head coaches in one season would make it look as if the current ownership regime arent as competent as they believe. Also that the so called club ownership “model” that they’ve been doubling down on ever since Alec Neil walked out for Stoke is exactly what a % of the fan base say it is: penny pinching bollocks dressed up as the keys to the kingdom.
A struggle keeps the season alive I suppose.

[Sunderporinostesta]

A look at the guardians championship table with the red n green bars for losses and wins plus dots for draws shows a majority of Green at the top and bottom ends with most red in the middle. I’ve never seen it looking like that before.

[Janik]

For the points total required at the top AND the points total required at the bottom to both be at the very upper bounds of the usual range, indeed even beyond the usual range to be all-time outliers, feels intuitively wrong. Football isn't quite a zero-sum game under 3 points for a win... but it's still pretty close to that.*
However the two situations can be mutually compatible if the points totals in the mid-table positions are all unusually low. And that fits with the idea that effectively over half the Division is battling relegation against.


* - the non-zero sum nature of three points for a win creates another way that points totals might be higher across the board, and that is a game with a victor adds 3 points to the cumulative all-Division points total (3 + 0), whereas a draw only adds 2 points (1 + 1). If the number of draws is lower than normal that will push the overall total points awarded in a 24-team Division closer to the theoretical maximum of 1656 (46 rounds x 12 matches per round x 3 points per game). There isn't a theoretical minimum of course given points deductions exist, but the minimum prior to deductions is 1104.

But this is examinable. Let's do it.
So... there were 149 draws out of 552 Championship fixtures last season. That is 27% of the games ending all square, or 3.24 draws per 12-match round of fixtures. So far this season there have been 97 draws from 426 fixtures. 23% or 2.73 per 12 games. Draws are happening less frequently so far this season than the average rate of them last season, then... but project this seasons rate of draws over the entire season and you get an expected value of 126. And that differs from last season's actual total of 149 (when 3rd place ended with 80 points and 21st with 49) by only 23. Which is moreorless only a point per game per team down once it's spread across the league. And the point target variances to go up/stay up are much greater than one point away from the average requirement. Which takes us back to an atypical points distribution which is skewed low across the middle.

[Amor de Cosmos]

We're look as if we're in form for sure, but only three games past the load of tripe we played at Stoke, arguably our worst performance of the year. Nothing is certain.

[nmrfox]

Could be as much as 2012/13 where 54 points weren't enough to stay up. 5 wins out of 6 for Wednesday and we've gone from 23rd to erm 23rd! Great to be back with the pack though. Next two games a lot harder - Leeds (h) and Ipswich (a). If we can stay in relative contact with those above after those two games there's a chance

Here's hoping that you not only stay in contact but the points accrued from those two games put you clear of the relegation zone....

[nmrfox]

Hey Sean of the Shed - get yer own avatar!

[Capybara]

Hey Sean of the Shed - get yer own avatar!

It's a bug. Something to do with indexing or summat (if you say that it makes you look like you know what you are talking about). Currently this thread shows SotS as the most recent poster but with the avatar of the actual most recent poster. So it should now show SotS's user name with my avatar. Of course it won't now that I've said that, will it?

[Sean of the Shed]

What the fuck are you both on about?

[Capybara]

Despite that intervention, it's still showing the time of the last post as 7:32.

[JM Footzee]

From the start of February, Watford have one win (Rotherham away) and tonight's home draw with Swansea, and five defeats. We're eight home games without a win (nine if you include the FA Cup against Southampton), and only have one game in our remaining ten against a side outside the top half (Birmingham).

I think we'll be OK, but eesh.

[Jobi1]

If Hull manage to sneak into the playoffs by a single point, I imagine you might hear a bit more griping about this...

https://twitter.com/centregoals/status/1765324424624939091

[Antepli Ejderha]

My general rule of thumb in this league is that 50 is the magic number for survival, the only times I can remember teams going down with that were Leicester 2008 and that bonkers 2013 season mentioned above when half the division looked like it might get relegated. Somebody will have a collapse and get nowhere near it - Blackburn look in the shit, one win since mid-December, no manager bounce from Eustace and they've got an horrible looking run in, it's difficult to see where they're going to get another ten points from given that they couldn't beat Millwall home last night. Swansea have got an interesting finish, lots of games against teams in the bottom half and they might slide into real trouble without really noticing.

A few games ago I was really worried, now much less so. We've managed to win two games 2-1 after looking comfortable and then getting the jitters. It also looks like the manager knows his best side but will rotate for the Saturday Tuesday routine. We're also playing football with a purpose and the players know their role.

Didn't realise we had so many games against our potential relegation rivals, I think that will help us as there's more positivity about now.

All famous last words.

[ad hoc]

So the short-lived but damaging Nico Schulz affair has come to an end, thankfully. For those unaware, Wednesday had former Dortmund (and German international) left back Nico Schulz practising with the club and apparently ready to sign for the remainder of the season, as he was a free-agent. On the face of it this was a bit of a coup, because we're short of cover there and the player we took on loan for that very job in January promptly got injured. However, that's the bare bones that doesn't tell anything like the real story, because the reason he is a free-agent is because he was fired by Dortmund last summer as he had been charged with domestic abuse. That case came to court a week ago, at which he was ordered to pay money to a number of charities for the case to be "discontinued" (he'd already paid an undisclosed sum to his ex-partner, who would not as a result be testifying)

A couple of fan groups (a women's one supported by an LGBT one) spoke out and said that this wasn't the kind of player we wanted on the team and that signing him would be a big problem, and would give women the message that they didn't matter. Wednesday/Danny Rohl have now dropped their interest, thankfully, though not by really coming out and saying "yes we fucked up, we can see why this would have sent the wrong message. Sorry", more "we've decided we don't need him", which leaves a bad taste.

There is a fairly long and good piece on the Athletic about this, which for reasons I don't really understand I was able to read this morning (I'm not a subscriber), but can't now. It's linked here for anyone who can and wants to read it https://theathletic.com/5309677/2024...y-nico-schulz/

[Tony C]

A couple of fan groups (a women's one supported by an LGBT one) spoke out and said that this wasn't the kind of player we wanted on the team and that signing him would be a big problem, and would give women the message that they didn't matter. Wednesday/Danny Rohl have now dropped their interest, thankfully, though not by really coming out and saying "yes we fucked up, we can see why this would have sent the wrong message. Sorry", more "we've decided we don't need him", which leaves a bad taste.https://theathletic.com/5309677/2024...y-nico-schulz/

I’d be inclined to give Wednesday the benefit of the doubt here as i think it’s inferred that they understood they “fucked up” by dropping interest in the player as soon as they found out about the abuse case (I couldn’t access the Athletic piece so there may be something in it to contradict that).

I mean, the likes of Fleetwood, Preston and Getafe showed no such moral scruples when they saw a cut price deal for Ched Evans or Mason Greenwood in similar circumstances. I’m sure there are more examples too.

[Evariste Euler Gauss]

Meanwhile the ethical-when-pushed-hard-by-fans Wednesday "entertain" Leeds tomorrow night. The pesky outfit grabbed a share of the points from us when we played them at our own place earlier in the season, at a time when they were otherwise rubbish and losing to almost everyone, so hell knows how badly we will fare at their place now that they are on a run of promotion form even if still - just - in a relegation spot. Very challenging fixture for the pride of West Yorkshire.

[ad hoc]

Haha. Given that our best player since January is someone we've got on loan from you, and who couldn't even get in your squad, shows the vast gulf in class.

[Jon]

Talking of gulf in class, there wasn't one last night when eternally fifth place west brom travelled to relegation strugglers QPR. QPR probably deserved more than the point they got.

[Amor de Cosmos]

In our last ten matches (W5 D3 L2) we've gained points on most of our rivals: Sunderland 11; Millwall, Bristol City & Blackburn 10; Stoke 9; Swansea, Birmingham, & Plymouth 7; Huddersfield 5; Wednesday 2. But such is the state of the division right now we're still only a single point above the relegation zone.

[Janik]

Talking of gulf in class, there wasn't one last night when eternally fifth place west brom travelled to relegation strugglers QPR. QPR probably deserved more than the point they got.

That would tally well with my speculations on the previous page...