Goodreads and the Law of Large Numbers

[WOM]

I have a theory, likely flimsy, that the law of large numbers is at work on Goodreads. Because it seems that every book eventually settles on a rating of 3.7 / 5.

Of course I've seen exceptions, but I wonder if there's some Goodreads Effect where fans of a book always give it 5 stars, people who didn't like it always give it 1, a few 'honest' reviewers give something in between, and after 10,000 ratings it's always 3.7.

Or, are most books just sorta average? Average being average, that's probably it, isn't it?

[imp]

I checked my books to test your theory. The Quiet Fan has a 3.78 average from 9 ratings. Rock n Roll Soccer has a 3.79 average from 119 ratings. For Whom the Ball Rolls bucks the trend with a 4.33 average from 12 ratings. So that one's possibly above "sorta average". Though in fact it's what you'd expect with something as subjective as literary taste. I tend to search out books based on reviews I trust or from authors I already know, so on Goodreads I give a lot of four or five star reviews. If I don't like them, it tends to be two stars.

This is my favourite review of Rock n Roll Soccer (2 stars):
'A shame this book was written by a snobby Brit who seems to enjoy making sneering asides at North Americans, such as the following comment, on page 216 of the hardcover version: "Canadian Buzz Parsons played for the Vancouver Whitecaps, while American Buzz Demling turned out for the San Jose Earthquakes--this is stated merely to prove that in North America it is perfectly legal to name a child Buzz." I'm sure all the readers in Cornwall were floored by that broadside. After reading that comment, I put the book down.'

The reviewer's called "Jim", but I bet his real name's Buzz.

[ad hoc]

Love that he got to page 216 before the Buzz comment caused him to ditch the book.

[imp]

I like to think of him stomping about the house in a rage and his wife saying, "Is everything okay, dear?" And he replies, "NO! NO! Everything's not okay. Some snobby Brit I was reading just insulted Buzz!"
"Buzz who, dear?"
"No Buzz in particular, Martha. Just Buzz!"

[WOM]

"Let's just hope to god Buzz Aldrin never develops an interest in soccer and picks up that pile of dreck. All his accomplishments will have been for nought."