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    #26
    Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

    It's just following the Dow;

    Not entirely, it's dropped farther, this fracas is having an effect.

    The GG's only answerable to to HRM isn't she? I'm with AG, she should tell them all to stop being silly boys and play together nicely. Mind you it would take a fair bit of bottle on her part, precedents shattered all over the place and that.

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      #27
      Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

      AdC, maybe the TSX' drop has been sharper because commodity prices have been dropping steeper than the broader market indeces (the TSX is heavily weighted with commodities.) The dollar is still steady, above US$0.80.

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        #28
        Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

        Could be, I'm certainly no expert. But the guys in the G&M who look at this stuff for a living said today that the events of the weekend had an impact. Not primary, but certainly supplementary. I mean, if you think about it, it's kind of bound to isn't it? Where's the much vaunted Canadian government stability, the even hand on the tiller and all that bollocks?

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          #29
          Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

          The Loonie did drop by half a cent today, so there probably was a bit of a response to the political situation in the drop, but that impact was relatively small (so far...)

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            #30
            Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

            I'm watching The National on CSPAN.

            This is wild.

            So when are we going to find out what's going to happen? If there's another election, when will it be?

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              #31
              Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

              AdC, yes, the GG is answerable only to Liz.

              How does all this unfold? Start with the cofidence vote. Assume President Steve doesn't prorogue the House or declare martial law and the vote is held as scheduled on the 8th of December. The next moring, he goes to Rideau Hall and says to the GG - I no longer command the confidence of the house, and i am asking you for fresh elections. Then she has a decision to make - the kind of decision that has to get made maybe once every couple of decades anywhere in the commonwealth, but it's basically the central purpose of their existence: to decide if an alternate candidate *could* command the confidence of the house. Only if she concludes that the answer is no will she grant fresh elections. The whole point of this maneuver is to give the GG an option *besides* that. I have a really hard time seeing how the GG can say no to this, though, much as I might like her to.

              The last time a GG had to make that call in Canada was 1979 - and in that instance, the opposition had no intention of taking power without going to the ballot box, so there was no issue. This is the first time since WWI that we've seen an actual coalition government in Canada (and that one was a wartime emergency thing, not a "shit, none of us have enough seats to do this on our own" thing). This is basically unprecedented.

              On reflection, I'm possibly going overboard on the separatist thing. I mean, if anti-separatist Dion can swallow it...I still don't like it, though. Though if it's annoying the PQ hard core, it obviously has some interesting side effects.

              The central part of this gamble, it seems to me, is that the Tories will get so pissed at Harper for pissing away their best result in 20 years that they boot him off island. They'd better hope so. A wounded Harper is still very dangerous. A dead Harper, with the paleo-cons in full throat and a bunch of B-teamers running for leader, would be kind of amusing. There's the possibility that they could replace him with someone like Jason Kenney or Rob Anders, which would be hilarious.

              On the other hand, they might replace him with Jim Prentice or Bernard Lord, either of whom would be a decent opponent for whoever comes out of the Liberal rat race.

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                #32
                Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

                I think you did go overboard with the separatists thing AG, but I'm guessing there is a whole lot of that going on west of Gatineau on talk show radios and CanWest columns. The fact is the Bloc won 49 of 75 seats in Quebec (though it only represents 38% of the popular vote of the province) so it should not be marginalized. Their status within Quebec was like that of Harper, a minority vote and a relatively short leash from the voters, the great majority of whom do not support a separatist agenda.

                Could Harper have calculated that handing over the government to his opponents at a time of economic crisis might get him a bigger mandate when the next election rolls in? Maybe that pushed him towards a more aggressive stance prior to the coup.

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                  #33
                  Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

                  The last time a GG had to make that call in Canada was 1979 - and in that instance, the opposition had no intention of taking power without going to the ballot box, so there was no issue. This is the first time since WWI that we've seen an actual coalition government in Canada (and that one was a wartime emergency thing, not a "shit, none of us have enough seats to do this on our own" thing). This is basically unprecedented.
                  Now I'm lost. There isn't a coalition government now is there? It's a minority government, I thought. What the BQ, LP and NDP are proposing would be a coalition, but that hasn't happened yet, right?

                  elections. Then she has a decision to make - the kind of decision that has to get made maybe once every couple of decades anywhere in the commonwealth, but it's basically the central purpose of their existence: to decide if an alternate candidate *could* command the confidence of the house. Only if she concludes that the answer is no will she grant fresh elections. The whole point of this maneuver is to give the GG an option *besides* that. I have a really hard time seeing how the GG can say no to this, though, much as I might like her to.
                  So the GG, who was picked by some old lady over in London, could just hand over the reigns of government without another election? Supreme executive power comes from a mandate from the masses, not from some farcical aquatic ceremony.

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                    #34
                    Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

                    No, there's a minority government now. The opposition parties have formed a coalition and are proposing to the GG that they take over the leadership of the country after a non-confidence vote on Monday. Which may or may not happen, depending on whether Harper prorogues Parliament.

                    Second part: um...more or less, yeah. Her job is to decide whether the opposition would have the confidence of the house to govern [yep, looks like it] or whether the issue should go to 'the people' to decide. According to the panel of constitutional scholars on the CBC this morning, this is a no-brainer for Michaelle Jean (the GG). A coalition has been formed and they have said they'll work together to govern, and they've signed documents to attest to this agreement.

                    The only way this won't happen is if Fat Steve pops the poison pill and prorogues Parliament.

                    That mandate from the masses thing isn't really the Parliamentary way of doing things. We don't elect a leader, per se. We elect a member of Parliament. The leader of the party with the most members of Parliament is therefor the leader.

                    But this coalition thing is all above board and perfectly democratic. And when you think about it, it represents the wishes of more Canadians than does the Conservative Party.

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                      #35
                      Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

                      What's this prorogues business about? Does that just shut down the whole operation? What happens after that?

                      But this coalition thing is all above board and perfectly democratic. And when you think about it, it represents the wishes of more Canadians than does the Conservative Party.
                      Sort of. Insofar as the coalition all want the same thing, that's true, but if they end up giving up some of their positions to make the coalition work, then perhaps that's not really what a lot of people thought they were voting for when they picked NDP instead of Liberal or vice versa, for example.

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                        #36
                        Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

                        I've never heard the word "prorogue" before, and I have no idea what "GG" means, or what their role is.

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                          #37
                          Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

                          What's this prorogues business about? Does that just shut down the whole operation? What happens after that?
                          From today's Globe & Mail:

                          If Fat Steve asks the GG to prorogue, or adjourn, Parliament, she has two options.

                          a) Decide the request is a ruse by Harper to avoid meeting the house, and refuse to prorogue because the House has only been sitting for two weeks and has conducted virtually no business. In that case, Harper would have to resign, because the GG rejected his advice, and she would ask the coalition to form the new government.

                          b) Decide that Harper's request is legitimate because he is asking for an adjournment of only a few weeks - which includes the Christmas holidays - and he plans to introduce a budget as soon as the house resumes sitting.

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                            #38
                            Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

                            The GG is the Governor General - the Queen's envoy in Canada. Largely (very largely) a ceremonial position, until things exactly like this occur.

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                              #39
                              Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

                              So what's the general sense of public opinion on this? My gut reaction (admittedly, knowing almost nothing about the issues here) is that changing governments without an election is not a good thing.

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                                #40
                                Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

                                From what I've picked up, a general sense of excitement about the possibility of something genuinely interesting happening in Canadian politics.
                                Plus, the sense of a swift comeuppance to Fat Steve for doing such a partisan hatchet job on his first post-election budget note. Once again, he was arrogant in a minority position. Not wise.
                                No one wants another election so soon. Nobody. Everyone agrees it was a massive expenditure for no real change. I think people will actually be comfortable with the coalition, because it's a party they're comfortable with (Liberal) being supported by a party they flirt with, intellectually, but would never vote for federally (the NDP).
                                Oh, and there's the Bloc, but that's Quebec...not us.
                                I think most people wish it weren't Dion taking over as PM until the leadership convention in May (I said March/April yesterday).

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                                  #41
                                  Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

                                  I think people will actually be comfortable with the coalition, because it's a party they're comfortable with (Liberal.)

                                  Not out here they won't be. My guess the Liberals will pay for this big time, and for a long time.

                                  Several overheard conversations run this morning run along these lines: "Sure can Harper, he deserves it... but the NDP with six cabinet seats! and the fuckin' Bloc with a say in running the country! No effing way!

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                                    #42
                                    Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

                                    Very true. And I know they're going utterly ballistic in Alberta.
                                    But I think that, given that Dion will be replaced in 5 months, and that this coalition could last for 30 months under new leadership, the punishment factor won't be as big as it might have been. Dion will be seen as the 'undeserving' leader with the stink of a 'coup' on him. The new guy (Ignatieff) will come in legitimately and have a couple of years to make a positive mark on the country. All will be forgiven and he could then be (re)elected with a genuine majority. Alberta will never forget, however.

                                    Comment


                                      #43
                                      Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

                                      There are innumerable ways this thing could play out, but — WADR — the scenario you describe seems one of the least likely.

                                      Dion will be replaced in 5 months

                                      True.

                                      this coalition could last for 30 months under new leadership

                                      Not likely. They may not form a government at all, that depends on the GG, or the electorate. Assuming they do it's highly unlikely it will last anything like thirty months. Also, in the event the participants don't rip each other to shreds first, the Bloc have only promised a year remember.

                                      The new guy (Ignatieff) will come in legitimately and have a couple of years to make a positive mark on the country.

                                      The call for a public mandate will become deafening when the new Liberal leader is sworn in as PM. If all is going well with the three monkeys there'll be an early summer election, October at the absolute outside. Most likely though there'll be blood all over the carpet by February.

                                      All will be forgiven and he could then be (re)elected with a genuine majority.

                                      Yes, and I may become a Canada Research Fellow too, but a lot of shit has got to go around the U-bend before either of those things stand a chance of happening.

                                      Alberta will never forget, however.

                                      Neither will BC, nor (I'd guess) Saskatchwen. In the West the Liberals will be reduced to a smaller rump than they were in the last days of Trudeau. Unlike then, however, now we can't be ignored electorally. There are more seats out here now, and will be still more in the future. What's more Québec isn't a gimme either like it was back then. Counting on half the seats in the Maritimes, Southern Ontario and some of Québec just won't cut it.

                                      Comment


                                        #44
                                        Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

                                        Reading between the lines, I hear you disagreeing with me.

                                        Who knows how this will play out. So many variables. And the public has a very long memory, except when it doesn't, you know?

                                        I mean, what would become of Harper? Who's his replacement? Does Rae win or Ignatieff? Or maybe Leblanc? Does the economy pull up or head down? So many 'givens' just don't transpire sometimes.

                                        I'm just guess, obviously. One man's opinion, and all that.

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                                          #45
                                          Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

                                          b) Decide that Harper's request is legitimate because he is asking for an adjournment of only a few weeks - which includes the Christmas holidays - and he plans to introduce a budget as soon as the house resumes sitting.
                                          Given the direction things are going, why can't Harper climb down on the party funding issue and agree to talk about the economic stimulus issue and therefore get a budget that won't be rejected and therefore stay in power? Is he simply so stubborn that he wants to take his party down or is it the case that the insult of the first budget proposal will always linger like a henious fart in a small car so now his opponents are committed to booting him out regardless?

                                          Comment


                                            #46
                                            Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

                                            He's already climbed down on the party funding thing. In fact, that was the very first thing he did, along with two other really contentious points about the right to strike for civil servants.

                                            But from what we hear, the coalition thing was already in the works, and any budget he delivered would have been deemed unacceptable. I think this 'coup' was a foregone conclusion. Which, really, is a bit shit for him. The fact that he was such a dick just made it more palatable to those on the fence.

                                            A couple of his deputies were doing damage control on the interview circuit today and said Harper had big things up his sleeve for January when he was to deliver the full budget. The interviewer asked, rightly, "well why didn't he just say something about it last week?"

                                            All he had to say was that he wanted to wait until the Obama administration was in place and the Big 3 assistance package was hammered out before committing to Canada's part of a stimulus package. He'd have bought himself almost two months and comforted the masses who are thinking he's doing too little, too late.

                                            But he didn't, and that's how he's conducted himself all along. Like he's a one-man roadshow who shouldn't have to answer to anyone. He seriously fucked himself.

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                                              #47
                                              Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

                                              So all of this is because Harper is a bit of a douche, not really any substantive policy issue?

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                                                #48
                                                Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

                                                I'd say it's his unwillingness to work collaboratively, as a minority Parliament should. Coupled with a lack of (capital L) Leadership in the face of the current economic climate.

                                                But broadly, uh...yeah.

                                                I think everyone was good and pissed off that he called an election this fall when his Parliament was chugging along just fine. The specter of him cutting off party funding in anticipation of another election (which could see him finally tip into majority territory) was enough to make everyone snap and say 'enuf z'enuf'.

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                                                  #49
                                                  Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

                                                  He's already climbed down on the party funding and government employee's right to strike bills — of course they could always reappear later. But the three horseman of the apocalypse have the bit between their teeth. Bob Rae said yesterday, nothing less than a complete apology from Harper for causing this mess would lead them to consider changing their minds.

                                                  what would become of Harper? Who's his replacement?

                                                  No idea. What he could do to save his ass, I think, is to acknowledge he doesn't have the confidence of parliament and appoint himself as a caretaker PM until he can build his own coalition somehow. No appointments, no bills until he has enough support. It would take the wind out of the oppo's sails and get the GG off the hook too. Of course It would also tie up government, at a time when they're supposed to be actually governing, for who knows how long.

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                                                    #50
                                                    Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

                                                    I guess my question is, if the three parties are willing and able to form a coalition now, why weren't they able to form a coalition a few months ago before the election?

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