Brazilian presidential election, 2018

[Diable Rouge]

So, it appears the wave of populism that has already reached a crescendo over large swathes of Europe is now poised to engulf Brazil, through the election of Jair Bolsonaro. Of course, fatigue with corruption scandals, along with the desire for a strengthening of law and order has been evident, but has the ascendance of Evangelical Protestantism nationwide also proven a critical factor?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...shows-big-lead

[ursus arctos]

https://twitter.com/MSavarese/status/1048968340016943109?s=19

[Evariste Euler Gauss]

That is seriously scary news for Brazilians. The guy is off the scale. Obviously, he's operating in a more volatile context which offers more opportunity to shamelessly parade outright fascism than Europe or the US, but even so, his comments and stated intentions are vicious and violent in a way that even Orban, Erdogan and Trump are nowhere near.

I mean, ffs, he has talked not only of his admiraton of Ustra and his crimes against humanity, but also of his desire for more "killing". The guy could hardly be clearer about his plans to bring back the most appalling human rights abuses and plunge Brazil into totalitarian fascism.

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...jair-bolsonaro

And he is getting around 47 to 48 per cent in the first round. Christ, that puts America's problem with Trump voters in the shade.

[cantagalo]

With 96% of the votes cast, he’s on 46.5% and will go to the second round with the PT’s Fernando Haddad. Polls show them neck and neck in the run-off but those same polls underestimated Bolsonaro’s vote in the first round.

The only way he’s going to be defeated is by getting anti-Bolsonaro voters to turn out for Haddad but this is problematic as, outside the North-East there are high levels of disgust at the corruption of the PT and it could prove difficult to get centre-right voters to support Haddad. Third placed Ciro Gomes would have been more likely to beat Bolsonaro.

[cantagalo]

Then there’s the Venezuela factor. The PT, despite the evidence of their 14 years in power, has been characterised as a pro-Communist, pro-Chavez and Maduro party and desperate, hungry Venezuelans have been pouring into bordering states in the north of Brazil.

Here’s how Bolsonaro supporters view the North-East, where 8 out of 9 states voted for Haddad (and the other for Ciro Gomes).

https://twitter.com/pirescarol/statu...861246471?s=21

[cantagalo]

Here’s Ronaldinho showing his support. (17 is Bolsonaro’s electoral number).



Other Bolsonaro voters - Felipe Melo of Palmeiras and Lucas Moura of Spurs.

[cantagalo]

To continue the football theme, Romário has failed in his attempt to become Governor of Rio. He came in fourth place with less than 10% of the vote.

The second round run-off is between Eduardo Paes, the man who brought the Olympics to Rio and is, to no-one’s great surprise, under accusations of corruption, and a guy from Bolsonaro’s PSL party who has emerged from nowhere to get double the votes of Paes in the first round.

[Nefertiti2]

Who voted where

https://twitter.com/thomassnegaroff/status/1049173217410273280?s=21

[cantagalo]

On the face of it, Haddad has an uphill task. Bolsonaro needs an extra 4%; 1.25% of that will come from Cabo Daciola, another far right and frankly bonkers candidate. This means he only needs to secure just over half the 4.75% of votes for centre-right candidate Geraldo Alckmin.

Haddad’s only chance is a massively increased turnout in the second round. He will have to change his first round strategy of increasing voter recognition by associating himself with Lula - his campaign slogan was ‘Haddad é Lula, Lula é Haddad’. This means no more visits to Lula in jail in Curitiba and a much broader-based campaign in defence of democracy.

Much could depend on the series of televised debates. Bolsonaro avoided the most recent ones before the first round on medical advice. Haddad’s performance in debates so far has not been particularly convincing but there is the possibility that Bolsonaro could scare off undecided voters with some outrageous comments, though it has to be said that so far, as with Trump, these comments only seem to have had the opposite effect.

[Eggchaser]

When faced with a (relatively) moderate candidate saying things will be tough but there's a light at the end of the tunnel or a populist giving an easy target to blame and offering the moon in a stick for nothing, humanity has consistently plumped for the latter.

[cantagalo]

Bolsonaro won every state except one (Pará) outside the North-East. Even within the North-East, he won five out of the nine state capitals.

He won the three most populous states - São Paulo (53%), Minas Gerais (48%) and Rio de Janeiro (60%). Haddad won the 4th largest, Bahia with 60%.

[cantagalo]

https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statu...279165443?s=21

[cantagalo]

https://youtu.be/0V4tz_PmjBA

Roger Waters played the Arena Palmeiras last night.

It’s fair to say his voting advice split opinions.

[cantagalo]

This is Haddad’s new election poster.



No red. No mention of Lula. No mention of the PT.

In the first opinion poll after Sunday, Bolsonaro has a 58:42 lead over Haddad.

Oh and Bolsonaro has opted out of the first TV debate on medical advice.

[Lang Spoon]

Has Proper Ronaldo taken a side in this yet?

[cantagalo]

He’s said that this time he’s remaining neutral and will not support either candidate.

In 2014 he campaigned for the losing PSDB candidate Aécio Neves and in 2016 he supported Dilma’s impeachment.



‘It’s not my fault. I voted for Aécio’.

[cantagalo]

This is Bolsonaro’s new campaign video.

https://youtu.be/M0DeOoqNKuQ

You don’t need to understand Portuguese to work out what’s going on in the first part - Cuba, Venezuela, corrupt PT, Brazil on the edge of the abyss, flag is yellow and green, not red and God above all.

Then at 2:30 comes the personal bit. Bolsonaro shares with us how he reversed his vasectomy in order to have a daughter with his third wife to go along with his four sons. He chokes up, apparently unable to speak.

Cringeworthy, but he’s going to romp the second round.

[cantagalo]

Latest poll: Bolsonaro 59% Haddad 41%

[Pérou Flaquettes]

Great ITW of Lyon legend Juninho (Pernambucano) in El Pais of October 6th, This is his first ITW since leaving the daily El Globo last May.

Click on the Translate function for the English (translation is not great, probably automatic but no barrier to understanding. The "sectorists" – setoristas – Juninho talks about, and questions the ethics of, are those journalists who cover a particular club on a daily basis).

https://brasil.elpais.com/brasil/201...19_927623.html

"Me revolto quando vejo jogador e ex-jogador de direita. Nós viemos de baixo, fomos criados com a massa. Como vamos ficar do lado de lá? Vai apoiar Bolsonaro, meu irmão?"

[I am outraged when I see a former player vote for the right. We come from the bottom, our background is firmly working class. We cannot forget that. Are you going to support Bolsonaro, brother?]

In French on this site (much better translation): http://www.lagrinta.fr/juninho-le-fo...le-monde&7245/

And on the Radio France International site, in a summarised form: Brésil: Juninho Pernambucano, ex-footballeur et rare opposant à Bolsonaro

"Ronaldinho, Rivaldo, Cafu, Felipe Melo, Lucas Moura soutiennent [support] Bolsonaro"

[Lang Spoon]

Thank fuck someone isnt being a cunt.

[Pérou Flaquettes]

I've just found this: http://www.tellerreport.com/sports/-...SyIBYkT5Q.html

[G-Man]

"Ronaldinho, Rivaldo, Cafu, Felipe Melo, Lucas Moura soutiennent [support] Bolsonaro"

Well, Lucas Moura is a right-winger...

[cantagalo]

https://brasil.elpais.com/brasil/201...19_927623.html

Thanks for that. Great interview. Aside from the politics, his views on Brazilian football are pretty much spot-on as well.

[cantagalo]

Bolsonaro’s illegal campaign financing?

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/a...mpression=true

[ad hoc]

I have a number of good Brazilian friends, and obviously most of them are firmly #elenao. But I've just seen a Facebook update by a friend calling for a vote for Bolsanero. This friend is gay. He's lived with his partner for 20 years. I just cannot compute. I understand why someone would choose not to vote for Haddad (even if I don't agree), but to vote and campaign for someone who openly hates you. I'm completely flipped out by this. I can't (yet) even bring myself to ask him.