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    #26
    On the pitch (which is all I have a clue about), the problems to me seemed to be two in number.

    First, the lack of pace left them very vulnerable on the counter attack. Mexico were nippy and should have taken fuller advantage, while Sweden were also pacy enough to give them some problems, but it was really underlined earlier, I thought, by South Korea. South Korea's players looked quite a lot of the time like they were running through treacle. They really didn't seem to be a particularly fast team. And yet if they'd had a clue how to shoot straight, they might have handed out a hiding for the ages.

    The other issue is that while Germany have quality throughout the squad, they don't really have a centre forward now Klose has gone (erm ... Klose has gone, right?). It's often simplistic to say that's what teams are lacking when they can't score, but based on their group games I do think it's the case for them.

    And the other thing that went wrong, of course, is that they won the last World Cup, and are European.

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      #27
      The conundrum is how a side that was so untouchable in the qualifiers -- 100% record, 43 goals in ten games -- turned so much into shit in the space of nine months? Mats Hummels mentioned that in his post-match interview. "The last time we played well was really last October, I think" (though they did play well against Spain). There was Löw's complacency that the poor run of results in friendlies meant nothing and that things would click in the tournament, as they always do. But he was wrong on that.

      In the OP I listed some of the major factors that led to Germany's collapse. I didn't even really go into the tactics or team selection, which is where Germany has been standing still over the past four years, repeating Spain's error from four years before. As Mexico especially showed, they were comprehensively found out, and had no coherent Plan B (other than throwing on Chancekiller Gomez). Wasn't it obvious that opponents would put a marker on Kroos, as Mexico did? Germany played like Louis van Gaal's Manchester United. You can have the best players in the world, but if you play a ponderous build-up game (despite having some super-fast players in your team), you'll lose the ball and get hit on the counter. Mexico and South Korea profited from that.

      I don't believe there is a question of Germany having poor players. It's one of great players having flopped for Germany; some because they were long injured and not in good form (Hummels, Boateng, Neuer). Some because they just were out of sorts (Müller, Khedira, Ozil, Gundogan). Some because they weren't used right (Werner, Sané in the friendlies). And some were dragged down by the mediocrity of Germany's game, as was the case with Goretzka yesterday and in the friendly against Brazil.

      And losing the opening game just piled on the pressure. As I said before, it was already tremendous (and self-inflicted) before the World Cup, not made easier by the poor run of results in the friendlies. Now it was amplified. It paralysed the players on the pitch.

      Another factor seems to have been a lack of spirit in the squad. There was talk of division between the Class of 2014 and the Confed Cuppers. It is said that the Ozil/Gundogan affair (the public outrage over their ill-advised meeting with Erdogan) cast a cloud over them, and that this affected the squad. And nobody liked the team hotel in Moscow; Bierhoff got that one wrong (Löw wanted to go to Sotchi, and who knows how the sunny resort vibes night have changed things).

      There is a temptation to ascribe the elimination to a few simple factors, but I think it takes a confluence of many things -- big and small -- to create a situation where a side as good on paper as Germany, one not caught up in chaos, falls apart like that.

      And still, slim margins change destiny. The commentator yesterday perceptively used the term "sliding doors". What if Brandt's shot against Mexico hits the net instead of the post? Germany draw against Mexico, the pressure lifts and confidence grows. What if Hummels' header from four metres against South Korea goes in? We'd defer the post-mortem to the listless 2-0 defeat against Brazil.

      But that itself would have masked the malaise. There's no shame in losing to Brazil, after all, and group stages are always hard work. I think it's better that the sliding door closed, that Germany were well and truly humbled, that old certainties are now open to challenge.

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        #28
        Originally posted by G-Man View Post
        The conundrum is how a side that was so untouchable in the qualifiers -- 100% record, 43 goals in ten games -- turned so much into shit in the space of nine months?
        Well, one reason for that is that this is the World Cup now. It's a lot harder than the qualifiers. Particularly if you're a seeded European nation who's played sides like Azerbaijan and San Marino. England go through qualifying with amazing records.

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          #29
          Germany qualified with 30 points and 40 goals because they were consistently very good. European qualifiers are testing enough. Ask the Dutch or Croats

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            #30
            They're not as testing as an actual World Cup group though, is what I'm saying. The bar gets raised.

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              #31
              Originally posted by anton pulisov View Post
              Arsene Wenger speaks fluent German, doesn't he?
              Yes. Then again, so does Felix Magath.

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                #32
                Originally posted by Stumpy Pepys View Post
                Then again, so does Felix Magath.

                Are you sure? What we know of his methods suggests that he may have been bluffing, using a handful of phrases cribbed from old Victor comics.

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                  #33
                  Originally posted by Duncan Gardner View Post
                  Germany qualified with 30 points and 40 goals because they were consistently very good. European qualifiers are testing enough. Ask the Dutch or Croats
                  Michael O'Neill was making the point that the German team that played Northern Ireland in qualifiers, differed from the team they met in the European championships by one player because of injury, (Howedes for Boateng) Even then the only changes to those teams from 2014 was the fullbacks Hector and Kimmich. There's a real danger if you are a big country that the Qualifiers simply act as a series of false positives. Think of england qualifiers for instance.

                  There's nothing that complicated with what went wrong for germany. It's the same story all the time. Team with strong squad mostly at its peak, and with one of the highest standard of team play gets bounce of the ball and wins all their games. These players become world champions, which accords them legendary status. Most of these players stick around then and are still good enough as a unit to make a decent impression at the following european championships, but by the following world cup, too many key players have fallen too far to make up for it, and the team game plan falls apart. Suddenly instead of consistently being better than all the other teams, they drop to a level where they are more reliant on events and they don't get the bounce of the ball. (Or don't have Klose to score one of the six free headers from six yards in the case of germany)

                  Keeping the same manager ensures that opportunity for change, and new blood is minimized in the extreme, and not enough time is given to younger players to adapt to the team and settle in. And then it all goes to shit in the tournament. There's simply not a lot of point in having a really successful underage set up if you're just going to pick Sami Khedira in midfield. But ultimately the lesson really is that Germany weren't as great as everyone thought in 2014, and they're nowhere near as bad as everyone thinks now. The major change is that in 2014 Germany were at a level where they could at any point in time, against any opponent, simply string six passes together, without a second thought.

                  Comment


                    #34
                    Originally posted by Sam View Post
                    They're [the qualifiers] not as testing as an actual World Cup group though, is what I'm saying. The bar gets raised
                    True, but the large number of qualifiers cuts both ways. You get potentially 8 or 9 goes to shake off a bad result, rather than 1 or 2 at most in a tournament. On the other hand who wants to trek to Belfast or Baku when there are friendly petrodollars on offer?

                    No-one pretends a rebuilding Czechia or Norway famous in the last century were much of a threat this time, but are they really weaker than Panama or Saudi- or even a Korean side that included NI in a series of pre-tournament friendly defeats?

                    Originally posted by Berbaslug
                    new blood is minimized in the extreme, and not enough time is given to younger players to adapt to the team and settle in. And then it all goes to shit in the tournament. There's simply not a lot of point in having a really successful underage set up if you're just going to pick Sami Khedira in midfield
                    Loew used 38 players in the qualifiers. 21 of them scored. Maybe Yogi was giving them game time with Euro qualifying in mind, or perhaps as DM suggests they just didn't show enough to get a long run of games

                    Last edited by Duncan Gardner; 30-06-2018, 10:19.

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                      #35
                      Yeah, I'm dubious about the idea that the group stages of a World Cup are a lot harder than the European qualifiers. Or indeed any harder. I strongly suspect that, if World Cup qualifiers were run on a worldwide basis rather than by confederations, UEFA would have 20+ teams in a 32 side World Cup. The bar gets lowered, not raised. But some European teams lose form in the meantime and limbo under it anyway.

                      It is going to be very tough for the DFB not to sack Loew, whatever new contract he has. He will be blamed, already is being blamed, by the fans and press. However they really shouldn't do that, he has had enough successes that one failure doesn't make him a bad coach or busted flush. Particularly when, as has been noted, he is dealing with what seems a common problem these days in defending a World Cup. He will have learned from the failure, just as much as he learned from the previous successes and if the German Federation has the guts to stick with him may be able to ride out the ill-feeling until the next Euros where a new-look German side can put this behind them. A complete revolution really doesn't seem necessary.
                      Last edited by Janik; 28-06-2018, 10:58.

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                        #36
                        He's been in charge for six tournaments. He's taking the piss.

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                          #37
                          Five of them pretty successful, the second last one extremely so. He was also key in rebuilding from a genuinely crap German team of 2000-04 that got what it deserved in the Euros of that era and were stupendously lucky in 2002 to the good side of 2006 to 2016.
                          He's failed to deal with the same political issue of clearing out the old guard that Italy, Spain and France had. Which is a failing, but is also one that other good coaches have succumbed to, and is also very specific and now in the past. He is the best man to rebuild Germany again.
                          Last edited by Janik; 28-06-2018, 11:05.

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                            #38
                            I think you're giving him a lot of credit for Germany being Germany. He's done a more than decent job, but 6 tournaments is a long time for an international football manager.

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                              #39
                              I think he's stale and the players would benefit from new ideas.

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                                #40
                                Does he want to carry on? There was a lot of talk from him prior to and during the tournament about the pressure he/Germany were under.

                                Of course he may want to try and rectify their current position rather than leave the job on a...I'm sorry but I can't avoid the oncoming pun...low.

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                                  #41
                                  It was eminently avoidable, which suggests you didn't want to.

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                                    #42
                                    Followed by Heroes and Lodger.

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                                      #43
                                      Aladdin Sane should get game time in the Nations League.

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                                        #44
                                        Very good.

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                                          #45
                                          With 3 straight champs going out in the group stage, it's becoming common wisdom:

                                          You win a World Cup with your players in their peak, then lose the next one when they are too old and the coach doesn't want to be the one to take the pressure and pull the plug on defending champion players who need walkers and scooters and canes to get around.

                                          Also, VAR did GER in while in previous WC's they could rely on that ref to get away with a "close offsides that went their way" or a ref to not call a penalty here for a handball (still not bitter about 2002, nope.)

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                                            #46
                                            I can't understand why many people are talking about the Germany squad being 'old'. Two outfield players (Gomez and Khedira) are the wrong side of 30. The current squad would be old for Euro 2020, but not now.

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                                              #47
                                              hmm. in 2014 hummels was just on the cusp of being too slow to pull off playing in a team with a high line. the last four years haven't been kind. Khedira wasn't great in 2014, but spent much of the next two years injured, and his legs are mostly scar tissue. Thomas muller woke up one morning in may 2016, and was half the player. He hasn't scored in 8 finals games in a row, which is extraordinary given just how enthusiastically he scored up to that point. Gotze has had his career essentially crushed by a long standing illness, schurrle has fallen off the face of the planet.

                                              The loss of a centre forward who could reliably score from free headers from six yards (Klose) the collapse in form of an attacking midfielder who banged in international goals like gerd muller seems to have completely erased germany's ability to score goals from the balance of play. Leaving them reliant on moments of individual brilliance or set pieces. If a team that plays the way germany try to loses the ability to efficiently score goals, then suddenly the opposition are free to ask many more questions about the high line of the defence.

                                              I must say that the German team seem to be unusually unlucky when it comes to injuries, particularly ones that keep you out for quite a while. Maybe they've fallen behind the other countries, in the field of "Sports science," or "Scientific preparation". Perhaps the time has come to bring back Muller-Wohlfahrt, and his horse placenta.
                                              Last edited by The Awesome Berbaslug!!!; 29-06-2018, 18:14.

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                                                #48
                                                Good call re Philip Lahm. I had momentarily forgotten about the man's genius.

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                                                  #49
                                                  The DFB have confirmed that Löw is staying.

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                                                    #50
                                                    I'm glad. There are no alternatives to Löw. And Löw will know exactly what went wrong, and is better placed than anyone to know how to fix it.

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