The others have all forgotten that it's Lawn Tennis

[Janik]

And the challenges in getting to round three for the various Brits, of various degrees of pluck.

Gentleman’s Singles

Lucas Pouille Fra [17] vs Denis Kudla USA [WC]
Peter Polansky Can [LL] vs Dennis Novak Aut [Q]
John Millman Aus vs Stefano Travaglia Ita [Q]
Liam Broady GBr [WC] vs Milos Raonic Can [13]

John Isner USA [9] vs Yannick Maden Ger [Q]
Steve Johnson USA vs Ruben Bemelmans Bel [Q]
Aljaz Bedene Slo vs Cameron Norrie GBr
Radu Albot Rou vs Pablo Carreno Busta Esp [20]

Kyle Edmund GBr [21] vs Alex Bolt Aus [Q]
Yuichi Sugita Jpn vs Bradley Klahn USA [Q]
Guido Andreozzi Arg vs Horacio Zeballos Arg
Tennys Sandgren USA vs Novak Djokovic Srb [12]

Damir Dzumhur BiH [27] vs Maximilian Marterer Ger
Ernests Gulbis Lat [Q] vs Jay Clarke GBr [WC]
Lorenzo Sonego Ita [LL] vs Taylor Fritz USA
James Duckworth Aus [PR] vs Alexander Zverev Ger [4]


Ladies Singles

Johanna Konta GBr [22] vs Natalia Vikhlyantseva Rus
Alize Cornet Fra vs Dominika Cibulkova Svk
Marketa Vondrousova Cze vs Sachia Vickery USA
Danielle Collins USA vs Elise Mertens Bel [15]

Jelena Ostapenko Lat [12] vs Katy Dunne GBr [WC]
Heather Watson GBr vs Kirsten Flipkens Bel
Sofia Kenin USA vs Maria Sakkari Gre
Vitalia Diatchenko Rus [Q] vs Maria Sharapova Rus [24]

Garbine Muguruza Esp [3] vs Naomi Broady GBr [WC]
Alison Van Uytvanck Bel vs Polona Hercog Slo
Jennifer Brady USA vs Kateryna Kozlova Ukr
Denisa Allertova Cze vs Anett Kontaveit Est [28]

Ashleigh Barty Aus [17] vs Stefanie Vogele Sui
Gabriella Taylor GBr [WC] vs Eugenie Bouchard Can [Q]
Magda Linette Pol vs Yulia Putinseva Kaz
Jana Fett Cro vs Daria Kasatkina Rus [14]

Angelique Kerber Ger [11] vs Vera Zvonereva Rus [Q]
Ana Konjuh Cro vs Claire Liu USA [Q]
Katie Boulter GBr [WC] vs Veronica Cepede Royg Par
Monica Niculescu Rou vs Naomi Osaka Jpn [18]

Karolina Pliskova Cze [7] vs Harriet Dart GBr [WC]
Ekaterina Alexandrova Rus vs Victoria Azarenka Blr
Irina-Camelia Begu Rou vs Katie Swan GBr [WC]
Aryna Sabalenka Blr vs Mihaela Buzarnescu Rou [29]

[Janik]

Anyone want to risk any tips or predictions, then?

[San Bernardhinault]

Federer might just be too old, and Nadal not quite grass-court enough in his dotage. So I'm going for one of those outlier Ivanisevic type years. Jack Sock to win it, beating Dimitrov in the final.

On the womens side, I think now that the duck has been broken, so has the dam, and we'll see back-to-backs for Simona. And, almost plucking random names, Pliskova as her oppponent.

[Janik]

Worth noting for any non-Brits that it has been bone dry and warm for around two weeks, and its forecast to stay that way for essentially the duration of the Championships. This is highly unusual weather for Britain, almost to the point of freakishness, 1:100 year event type of thing.

The courts will have been heavily watered but they must be baked, and will likely play higher bouncing and therefore effectively slower than usual as a result. Conversely the ball should move through the air quicker. Both of these aspect favour baseliners, like the two World No.1s.

[Janik]

The last six Men’s Slam winners reads:- Federer, Nadal, Federer, Nadal, Federer, Nadal. If anyone had predicted that in the autumn of 2016, when Nadal had been Slam-less for two-plus years and Federer for over four*, they would have been laughed at long and hard. However right now the scenario regarded by most as likeliest is that the sequence will continue, i.e. Federer will defend his Wimbledon crown as he defended his Aussie Open one back in January. But, y’know, I dunno. Such runs are made to be broken…

* - there was a ten-Slam period from Wimbledon 2014 to the US Open 2016 when Federer and Nadal won diddly squat between them. Pots in that time broke down as Djokovic – 6, Wawrinka – 2, Cilic – 1, Murray – 1.

So, the contenders.

In the Men’s it’s very hard to see past Federer (#1), but I’m going to do so. Time has to start to catch up eventually. Nadal (#2) would be the alternative choice of most causal followers of the game as the second biggest name it has, and the conditions will tip things slightly less against him than in a normal year, but he also hasn’t even made the QFs on his last five efforts. I think he’ll do better this year, but I’m struggling to see him in the final (though a repeat of 2008, which has been getting a lot of nostalgic coverage being a decade ago, would be wonderful).
Zverev (#4) just needs to get to at least the last four before he is considered, the transition to a contender is taking a long while here. Plus clay looks like Sascha’s best surface. Del Potro (#5) and Dimitrov (#6) both have the skill to do it, and are mercurial enough that if either gets hot they could pull off a surprise, but it would be a surprise. The consistency needed to win seven five setters in a row is lacking in Dimitrov and with Delpo the worry is always fitness and as a conseuqnce of that conditioning.
Then come a bunch of players with big strengths and flaws like the American big servers Isner (#9) and Querrey (#11) and their South African counterpart Anderson (#8). It’s been a long, long while since a player could server their way to the Wimbledon title, which is what it will take. The return reactions of players like Federer and Djokovic (#12) are too good. Talking of which, Nole looked somewhere back to his near best at Queens, and his best is still the only one to match the top two. He was probably hitting his serve, which implies the elbow was not bothering him. Whether the personal issues and motivation are sorted is a different question…
Two other top 10 seeds I’m yet to mention are Thiem (#7) and Goffin (#10), who are the big servers in reverse, even though Thiem does have a stinging delivery of his own. Both are shot makers but at their best on clay, who might benefit from what I’m expecting the weather conditions to do to the courts. However if either were to win that would be really left field.
Two more serious contenders lurk in Milos Raonic (#13) and Nick Kyrgios (#15). The seeding formula has significantly raised Raonic up the ladder and as a former finalist he has to be taken very seriously, but fitness is such an issue for him. He has been plagued in the last couple of years and didn’t even play in Paris last month. As for Kyrgios, well, he is really mercurial. But he will have a breakout tournament where it all comes together. Surely…
Under the radar names would be Borna Coric (#16), who ended Federer’s unbeaten run on grass by beating him in the Halle final which is a darn significant result even if it’s just a three setter, and Dennis Shapovalov (#26), who won the Boys Singles title just two years ago and has rocketed up the rankings.
But my pick is the name I’ve left out so far – Marin Cilic (#3). If the dreamed of Federer-Nadal final is to happen, Marin Cilic cannot make the final. And this might prove the biggest hurdle. The big Croat is getting closer and closer to adding to his US Open crown, making both the final last year here and in Melbourne a few months ago. He is also getting closer to Federer. The 2017 Wimbledon title match was not close, Federer won easily, but the one in Australia was a real tooth and nail struggle. He won Queens again in the warm-up, playing very well when needed against Djokovic, and is third in the odds. In ordinary circumstances would be considered a very significant threat, but such is the star of Federer he comes across as more like a dark horse (I think he might be second in the odds if he was on the other side of the draw from the Swiss). But he is a very strong one… which is why I feel this year is his time. Marin has the serve, and the big overall game to back it up. He is willing to come to the net when needed, but will also benefit if the courts are not playing as zippy. It could even by a day of days for Croatia, seeing as the Men’s Final is almost certain to overlap with the Football Final…

[Janik]

And the Women?
Well, Halep (#1) has the monkey off her back now with the title in Paris and should be free to express herself. The question is whether this is too soon? We have seen a number of Women take a while to process the life change that being a Slam champion entails, and not playing in the build-up is a worrying sign. I’m confident Simona will add multiple Slams to the one to her name to date, but this one doesn’t feel that likely. In fact Wimbledon is always going to prove a stretch as her game is a little too defensive to really function on this surface.
The same is also true of the second seed, Wozniacki. Caroline has made the Quarters of better of all the other Slams at least twice. She has never been past R4 at Wimbledon, not once. This is somewhat surprising in a two-time Eastbourne champion (mostly recently – Saturday!), but even back in 2009 and last year when she made the final on the South Coast, come SW19 it was underwhelming (R4 both times). May fall in R3 against Radwanska.
And what of the defending champion, Muguruza (#3)? Well, she was one of the prime examples of a player who took time to adjust to being a Slam champion, underachieving following her French Open crown in 2016 (where she went toe-to-toe with a fully fit and firing Serena Williams and beat her) for a whole 12 months, not even making a single final… until she came from basically nowhere to win Wimbledon last year. Rather unpredictable therefore, but as there are no real signs she is on that sort of form I overlook her.
The bookies favourite is Kvitova (#8) following both her title at Edgbaston, her two previous wins in SW19 and her Tour leading five titles to date in 2018 and number of match wins (38). As I’ve mentioned in previous years, there is a horses for courses sense at Wimbledon with similar names cropping up again and again, and Petra is absolutely one of those. If she can negotiate her way to the QFs she will become extremely hard to stop – like Serena her conversion ratio once she reaches the latter stages is awesome. She is still responsible for one of the best performances I’ve ever seen from a Woman, when she destroyed Bouchard in the 2014 final. She was unbeatable that day, and as they she looks fit and moving well, which when you add that to all the other strengths… However my worry is a potential R4 match-up with Ostapenko or Sharapova. That may come early enough to catch her out.
In the rest of the top ten seeds, there are strengths and weaknesses. Elena Svitolina (#5) has the same overdue to deliver issue as Zverev and also the German’s greater suitability for clay. She has only won five matches at Wimbledon in total, but at least the trend is in the right direction as she made R4 for the first time last year. Caroline Garcia (#6) is similar, a nice player for sure but another without significant depth in Slams previously and confidence just seems a bit fragile. See also Karolina Pliskova (#7) who ought to still be regretting not delivering last year. Grass really ought to be her surface, but does she believe? Also does she move well enough?
The top ten is rounded off with Americans, including Venus (#9) and Keys (#10). Both are clearly potential champions thanks to their huge serves and generally big games. But both are also up-and-down. Venus did extremely well to make the final last year, but age and fitness is a big issue with her (38 is ancient in Singles terms) and 2018 hasn’t been anything like 2017 was. As for Madison, she seems to have been knocked back by losing the US Open final last year and that harms a player who thrives on confidence.
There are some significant contenders outside the top 10 seeds, particularly in the 11-16 band. Kerber (#11) made the final two years ago, has a generally good record on grass and is back in form somewhat reminiscent of the annus mirabilis, but she does need to pop on her shots to be at 2016 levels or she will get gunned down eventually. Ostapenko (#12) is very up-and-down, but I’m convinced remains more of a grass court player than other surfaces, notwithstanding that French Open crown. She may also benefit from a hard draw that in theory means she needs to go through Sharapova, Kvitova, Halep and Muguruza to make the final. As a player who thrives on emotion, that sort of thing might actually help drive her level up to stratospheric levels again. Vandeweghe (#16) has a disappointing QF from Wimbledon and SF in New York as a painful memories from last year and seems to be being hindered by those. Her game is much better than her 2018 results to date.
But we can go outside the top 16 seeds to find very significant contenders. Very, very significant ones. Such as Serena (#25). She is talking a good game in terms of fitness, but she did the same before Paris. Is she telling the truth or trying to convince herself? Only time will tell on that one. Obviously if she is fit she is an overwhelming favourite to win the title, but sometimes life gets in the way of professional ambitions.
Serena isn’t the only significant seed in the 17-32 bracket who one can make a strong if caveated case for. There is also Barty (#17), Osaka (#18), Rybarikova (#19), Konta (#22), Strycova (#23), Sharapova (#24) and Radwanska (#32). Barty is a brilliant grass court player but lacks experience of deep runs in Slams (singles!). Osaka likewise, though she could well make a breakout run as in Indian Wells. She certainly has the huge game for it. Rybarikova, Strycova and Radwanska are all players who rely on more guile and have strong records on grass as a result. As noted above, players from outside the top echelon with previous deep runs at Wimbledon often manage to repeat them and all three of these are have that past. Very significantly in Radwanska’s case, and she might be close to the last chance saloon. She would be up there with Kvitova as a people’s champion if she were to do it.
Konta’s run last year was very reminiscent Henmanesque in the sense of a load of tight matches that she somehow dragged herself through almost by willpower alone. And then fell tamely in the Semi. She has loads of points to defend, and a tough draw (potentially Cibulkova, the World No.32 and a frustrated non-seed, in R2!). She does remain a good grass court player though, so fingers crossed. And in the opposite sense regarding Sharapova, who is a former champion of course.
My tip then? Again, the player missing from the top ten analysis above – Sloane Stephens. She played exceptionally well to win in New York last summer, and unlike others she seems to have grown with being a Slam champion rather than been overwhelmed by it. To get to the French final, on a clay court that really isn’t her friend, was exceptional. On a grass court that will help her big game, she ought to be too hot to handle. Slam Sloane is no longer a slightly barbed epithet, she could start to gather lots of them.

[Janik]

There are just more contenders to consider in the Women's draw, aren't there? I hadn't realised the length of those was so different.

My picks for the day one are six Women's and four Men's matches. Which I genuinely believe represents the most likely games to be interesting. I will try and add thoughts in a bit.


Sabalenka vs Buzarnescu [29]
Goerges [13] vs Puig
Kuznetsova vs Strycova [23]
Zhang [31] vs Petkovic
Vekic vs Stephens [4]
Giorgi vs Sevastova [21]

Aryna Sabalenka is coming off the week of her life after making the final at Eastbourne. She is in excellent form. Mihaela Buzaernescu is in the middle of the year of her life, having established herself as a seed. Due to the lack of name reocnigtion the match is ferreted away on an outside court, fourth on on Court #16 so one for the aficionados rather than day trippers. It should be excellent, and I tend to favour the Belarussian’s bigger game to win through in the end.
Julia Goerges has been in fine form in 2018, but Wimbledon has not been kind to her recently. I think it’s about five years since she even won a match here. Grass is not her best surface, whilst Olympic champion Monica Puig is good on the surface. It should be a pugnacious match with lots of hard hitting, and I think Goerges will halt her losing run in the end. They get a show court for it, fourth slot on Court #18.
Svetlana Kuznetsova is finally into the veteran stage, as is Barbora Strycova. The Russian has had the greater career and is the better known, but Strycova is much more adapted to grass. There should be some subtlety and variation on show as Kuznetsova is hardly all biff, but I go with the Czech here to weave her web. Again an evening match, the fourth one on Court #12 (which again is one of the outside show courts, these are #2, #3, #12 and #18 for reference).
Zhang Shuai famously made her Slam breakthrough in the 2016 Aussie Open when, following 14 straight R1 eliminations, she finally won her first match at this level and then another, and then another, up until losing to Jo Konta in the QFs. Since then she has won games at all the other Slams… apart from Wimbledon! Andrea Petkovic, whilst not at her best on grass (never past R3) is more than good enough to keep that run going, and indeed is already a set up in the first match on on Court 17.
Donna Vekic and Sloane Stephens open proceedings on Court 1 at 1pm in the best Women’s match of the day. Vekic is not quite the same player she was in 2017, but she remains an excellent and truly dangerous opponent on a grass court, one that Stephens, who will be hoping and expecting to be around for most if not all the two weeks, would surely have preferred to avoid in R1. The serving in this should be excellent, and likely decisive. Having tipped Stephens for the title, I have to pick her for this, but it could need three.
There could hardly be a greater contrast in styles between Camila Giorgi and Anastasija Sevastova, who play second on Court 8. If I were there, I would be making a beeline for this, because it should be fascinating. Giorgi hits everything as hard as she can, Sevastova works the ball around the court in a cerebral manner. And enjoys totally undermining the rhythm of biff-merchants, such as Giorgi. It really depends on who dictates to the other, but I’ll go for a shock and the Italian.


Federer [1] vs Lajovic
Karlovic vs Youzhny
Monfils vs Gasquet [23]
Wawrinka vs Dimitrov [6]

As is traditional, the defending Men’s champion will open proceedings on Centre at 1pm. So hello again Mr Federer. Dusan Lajovic is a fairly tough opening round draw, a player at about a career high ranking in the mid-50s and someone with a big serve. But surely that won’t throw the champ?
Talking of big serves… Two players well into the veteran phase meet in Ivo Karlovic and Mikhail Youzhny in a precursor to some Croatia vs Russia Football match or other in a few days time. Unlike that one, the Croat will not be a massive favourite for this, in fact it looks hard to call. It may go to penalties/tie-breaks. And repeatedly. Both have strong previous records at Wimbledon (each has made the QFs), though the last significant impacts for both were rather a long time ago. At age 39 this must be close to the last time Ivo will play, and similar for the 36 year-old Misha. More of a nostalgia fest, but it could take a while to get through. They follow Zhang-Petkovic on Court 17.
Under most circumstances a meeting between Gael Monfils and Richard Gasquet in R1 of a Slam would be match of the day, but the one below trumps it. Even so, this should be very high level for such an early meeting. Monfils edges the h2h 9-7, and the pair have shared their last two meetings which were both in the brief 2017 grass court season. Both live up to the stereotype of gallic flair. The Court 2 crowd ought to be in for a treat (its third match on).
However match of the day on the Men’s side is clearly Stan Wawrinka vs Grigor Dimitrov, which is why it gets a Centre Court stage (third on). At least hopefully. Stan did not look really ready to play when been dismantled by an equally rusty Murray in Eastbourne and grass has never been his best surface. Grigor, meanwhile, has struggled for form recently. Those in the who like singlehanded backhands ought to love this, but if Wawrinka doesn’t find greater form it could be quite one-sided.

[Satchmo Distel]

Tough draws for Edmund and Konta

[Janik]

On Brits already underway, Harriet Dart is putting up a really good showing against Karolina Pliskova. She is a set down but that was a tie-break, and is now a double break up in the second. I'm going home for lunch to watch for a bit.

[Janik]

Dart wins the second set 6-2, despite a heavy tumble at 4-1 that saw her have to leave the court to get strapping on her hip. Dart is out-aceing Pliskova 5-0, which is pretty remarkable. Hardly anyone breaks Pliskova three times in a row, especially on grass, but Dart managed that in set two.

[ad hoc]

Good start for the ever increasing number of Romanian women in or around the top 100. Cirstea beats 19th seed Rybarikova and Dulgheru knocks out the lesser Pliskova

[Etienne]

Sloane Stephens only manages 4 games against Vekic. Pretty tough draw first up.

[ad hoc]

Swan wins the first set 6-2 against Begu

[Janik]

Good start for the ever increasing number of Romanian women in or around the top 100. Cirstea beats 19th seed Rybarikova and Dulgheru knocks out the lesser Pliskova

There are a record eight Romanians in the Women's draw. They should target a real run at the Fed Cup next season...

[Janik]

Swan wins the first set 6-2 against Begu

Begu is the World No.33. She would be seeded in most Slams as there usually are a couple of injury absentees at least. But Swan now has two match points for a has completed a 2&2 victory.

As for my tip for the Women's title, well...

[ad hoc]

Swan wins. And in other good news I have just discovered that Wimbledon is on Eurosport this year. Usually it is the only one of the grand slams on a pay channel I don't get

[Janik]

1/3 so far for the Brits, and Dart's showing was very creditable despite the third set defeat. That was 6-1, and one would assume that Dart's level and confidence dropped and Pliskova's raised. Which was what happened, but not immediately. Dart actually had three break point chances in the first game of the set, then held her own service game comfortably and was at 30-all in Pliskova's next delivery. However Pliskova held that, and then the match changed with a poor Dart service game at 1-2 and got away from her massively quickly. A pity, as she played really well for close to two hours and two-and-a-half sets. Hopefully it will be a building block.

[Janik]

Swan wins. And in other good news I have just discovered that Wimbledon is on Eurosport this year. Usually it is the only one of the grand slams on a pay channel I don't get

It was last year as well, at least in the UK.

[ad hoc]

It was last year as well, at least in the UK.

Not here

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

What are the odds on a "no rain break" Wimbledon this year? Short of evening thunderstorms the 2018 British heatwave shows no sign of ending yet.

[Southport Zeb]

Aranxta Rus lives in a place called Monster

[Janik]

Dimitrov in trouble against Wawrinka. He was a break up in set three, had points for a double break, but let the situation slip and lost the set in a breaker. Now at two sets to one down his body language is not good at all.

[Satchmo Distel]

Begu is the World No.33. She would be seeded in most Slams as there usually are a couple of injury absentees at least. But Swan now has two match points for a has completed a 2&2 victory.

As for my tip for the Women's title, well...

She was my tip too. Perhaps the huge effort at the French took too much out of her mentally?

Swan seems to have lots of potential: good junior record and only 19.

Norrie wins first set against London resident Bedene.

[Janik]

Dimitrov rather capitulates. The Stanimal in four!

[Etienne]

Yes, I think British tennis was expecting Swan to be a future grand slam winner when she was 15. But her progress hasn't been as rapid as expected. I'm not sure she will be a slam winner but she could easily be as successful as Watson or even Konta.