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Grand Slam or Sham? Tour de France 2018

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    #26



    BORA - hansgrohe

    Peter Sagan
    Maciej Bodnar
    Marcus Burghardt
    Rafal Majka
    Gregor Muehlberger
    Daniel Oss
    Pawel Poljanski
    Lukas Poestlberger

    Bodnar is a strong time trialist, Burghardt is a powerful domestique, Majka will initially target the GC, lose time, then go for the polka dots, Muehlberger is only 24 but has a couple of wins to his name - a decent climber, Oss is a classics rider who will be very useful on most stages, Poljanski is a domestique who can climb a bit, and Poestlberger is a powerful rouleur who took a memorable win in the Giro last year with a solo breakaway.

    Oh yes, and there's the best cyclist in the world. Peter Sagan will start out in the world champion's rainbow jersey, which he won for the third time in a row last autumn. He will be looking for any stage wins he can get but otherwise will, I assume, hoover up points at finishes and intermediate sprints in an attempt to regain the green jersey. Remember, he won it in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016. He didn't win it last year after being kicked out for taking down Cav, with Michael Matthews ultimately taking it.
    Last edited by Kevin S; 26-06-2018, 12:16.

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      #27


      The green jersey (maillot vert)

      The green jersey is worn by the leader of the race's points classification which, in the Tour, traditionally is one of the sprinters. Sagan has dominated this primarily because as well as being one of the fastest finishers, he is equally at home in Ardennes-esque hills and so gobbles up points on stages which have been out of the flat-track specialists' reach. However his disqualification last year opened it up for Michael Matthews to take the prize, as the Aussie showed the desire to put in the work required for the best possible haul of points - getting in the right moves, going for the intermediates, picking up points at the finish.

      The most explosive flat-track bully is Kittel, who won five stages last year - but his form this year has been pretty dire at his new team. Gaviria definitely has the ability to pick up several stage wins in his debut Tour but perhaps a lot depends on how good a start he gets. If he wins the first one, Quick-Step's tail will be up and he should manage a few more.

      So Sagan has the best bag of tricks for this competition and will surely want to win it back. Gaviria and Groenewegen appear to be setting the benchmark in sprinting at the moment and Matthews is the defending champ. I reckon that gives something like this:

      ***** Sagan
      **** Gaviria
      *** Matthews, Groenewegen
      ** Kittel, Kristoff, Demare, Cavendish, Cort Neilsen
      * Colbrelli, Bouhanni, Greipel, Degenkolb, Rojas, Vanmarcke , Boasson Hagen

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        #28
        Roglic might be the king of one week stage races this season but that doesn't necessarily mean that can be translated into Grand Tour success - see for example Simon Spilak or to a lesser extent Geraint Thomas or Richie Porte. He's done two Grand Tours and won stages in both but hasn't so far made any sort of impression on the GC. I think he could contend in Grand Tours but at his age he needs to start putting together some sort of performance that shows his potential.

        Speaking of ages, was rather surprised to learn the other day that Kruijswijk is 31, I thought he was a few years younger than that.

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          #29


          BMC

          Patrick Bevin
          Damiano Caruso
          Simon Gerrans
          Stefan Küng
          Richie Porte
          Michael Schär
          Greg Van Avermaet
          Tejay van Garderen

          Caruso and Van Garderen are described as the mountain support for Richie. This is the relegation for Van Garderen that has been coming for some time now after he has failed to hit the heights his early promise suggested. Both should be good quality support with the pressure off them though - Caruso himself has achieved 11th or better in all three Grand Tours.

          The remaining riders are very strong on flat and rolling terrain, and includes one of the strongest time triallists in Kueng as well as the Olympic road race champion Greg Van Avermaet who likes to have gold accents on his cuffs (third in the train above). He will be looking for stage wins. Gerrans is a veteran who would be a good road captain - as a former Australian national champion he has gold and green accents on his cuffs (fourth above).

          Porte himself comes fresh off the back of winning the Tour de Suisse (see the yellow jersey above). He was in pretty good nick this time last year as well after dominating most of the Dauphine before being ambushed out of the GC on the final day - but his Tour de France was cut short by his crash on a nasty descent. There will be tricky obstacles to overcome again this time but he really should be a contender this year. If not now, when?
          Last edited by Kevin S; 27-06-2018, 12:18.

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            #30



            Bahrain-Merida

            Kristijan Koren
            Sonny Colbrelli
            Gorka Izagirre
            Ion Izagirre
            Vincenzo Nibali
            Domenico Pozzovivo
            Heinrich Haussler
            Franco Pellizotti

            A team that has a lot of focus on the climbs, but riders like Haussler and Colbrelli will mix it up on the flat. Nibali won't need as much support over the cobbles as other GC riders, as in the last World Cup year, when we also went over them, he rode them like a Flanders specialist. Oh yes, and he won the Tour that year, of course...

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              #31


              Katusha-Alpecin


              Ilnur Zakarin
              Marcel Kittel (pictured)
              Ian Boswell
              Robert Kiserlovski
              Pavel Kochetkov
              Tony Martin
              Nils Politt
              Rick Zabel

              Not a lot of support for Zakarin in the mountains so I suspect he will be looking to 'do a Zubeldia' and get a good placing without being seen, though he has struggled to make top 10s this year. So perhaps he will go in the break on mountainous days.

              Tony Martin was for a good while the best time triallist in the world but he only won two races last year and not a sausage so far in 2018.

              Kittel has also disappointed this year.

              Basically, this is a team of out-of-form riders with support of less-than-top-notch quality. They badly need one or more of those three key names to step up and do something. King of the Mountains for Zakarin and stage wins for Kittel would be a very good result for them if they can do it.

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                #32
                After making a note about the way BMC have recognised their former national champions in the traditional way, I note that Bahrain-Merida have completely failed to take on board this aspect of cycling tradition. I think five of their eight are former national road race champions (the two Izagirres for Spain, Nibali and Pellizotti for Italy and Haussler for Australia). A shame that they have not been given special cuffs for these titles.

                Here, for example, is Pellizotti at his former team (Androni), who gave him the proper cuffs of a champion, or Haussler, whose former team (IAM, now defunct) went for chunky bands on the cuffs of the jersey and the shorts.



                Details matter.
                Last edited by Kevin S; 27-06-2018, 13:26.

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                  #33
                  At least Gorka will be wearing the Spanish Champions' jersey.

                  It's a bit strange that Bahrain Merida don't do the cuffs. It isn't Nibali's idea, because he wore them at Astana

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                    #34
                    Ha! Of course (*slaps head*), his win was only at the weekend, so he should get the full works. Will Bahrain-Merida be able to pull this look off, I wonder? I mean, all they need to do really is to square off the yellow band and put the sponsor's name in a darker colour. They can even keep the little pattern thing they have under it.

                    Comment


                      #35


                      Education First-Drapac

                      Rigoberto Uran
                      Pierre Rolland
                      Taylor Phinney
                      Sep Vanmarcke (pictured)
                      Daniel Martinez
                      Simon Clarke
                      Tom Scully
                      Lawson Craddock

                      Still seems a bit weird seeing Tom Scully on the World Tour when he was doing things like the Tour Series around Aberystwyth, Ryde and Redditch a few years ago. The Kiwi completed the Vuelta last year but not this year's Giro, and he gets his first crack at the Tour in the supporting cast to the leader Rigoberto Uran.

                      Uran came 2nd in the Tour to Froome last year and also has a couple of Giro runner up prizes to his name. He is a couple of years younger than Froome, Nibali and Porte, and few years older than Dumoulin, Bardet, Quintana, Landa and Roglic. Perhaps he is the rider in the prime of his career who can claim the big one this year? However he finished second to Roglic in the Tour of Slovenia recently after an uncharacteristically weak time trial - though perhaps he was keeping something back.

                      Rolland and Clarke provide experience to the team, and Vanmarcke is a classics specialist who will be useful on the cobbles. Daniel Martinez is a 22 year old Colombian who appears to be hot on the heels of Egan Bernal, so perhaps we need to watch out for him in the white jersey competition too. You'd expect him to be able to support his Colombians team leader effectively too.

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                        #36
                        I enjoyed the bit in the EF Education First-Drapac p/b Cannondale press release where Vaughters said that they start the race trying to win the Tour de France. Full marks for ambition, but that amused me remembering Uran not even trying to attack when he was in a strong position last year.

                        Not going to be many British starters this year are there? Froome (presumably), Adam Yates, Thomas, Cavendish and that might well be it. No McLay now, not expecting any more British selections from Sky, Cummings probably injured, Thwaites definitely injured, suppose the only possible other starter now is Ben Swift.

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                          #37
                          Yeah, I think that's going to be it. Just like the old days! Hopefully Cav will be back to his form from the old days but I do say that more in hope than expectation.

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                            #38
                            La Gazzetta has Luke Rowe in Sky's team

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                              #39



                              Astana


                              Jakob Fuglsang
                              Jesper Hansen
                              Magnus Cort Neilsen
                              Michael Valgren
                              Omar Fraile
                              Luis Leon Sanchez
                              Tanel Kangert
                              Dmitriy Gruzdev

                              Only the one token Kazakh in the team this year and they've switched their 'secondary' nationality to Danish - they always used to have loads of Italians in the team - there are four Danes out of the eight. Fulgsang (translates as 'birdsong' as I'm sure the commentators will tell you) has looked good in fits and starts in the past few years but has never broken into the top ten overall for a Grand Tour. So team leadership for the biggest race of the year is, well, a big chance for him. Career-defining pressure comes with that, though. Lule Sanchez will be invaluable support to him on the highest climbs, and Tanel Kangert, the Estonian time trialling champion, will be good all round support. Since this is not a team of stars in the way that some others are, they have another plan, which involves their fast man Magnus Cort Neilsen. He won a stage in Ilkley in May, outsprinting the Olympic champion up the steep Cote de Cow and Calf, so is clearly the rising superstar of the class.

                              Comment


                                #40
                                Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
                                La Gazzetta has Luke Rowe in Sky's team
                                Saw that report, not sure how credible I find it. Expected van Baarle to be picked rather than Rowe, he's a better climber and has had better form throughout the season. Maybe he's injured. Also it had Puccio as the reserve, he did the Giro and teams have to nominate two reserves anyway. Can kind of guess the source of the report really...

                                Lovely announcement of the Dimension Data team, though you wonder how many riders they filmed and the scenes ended up on the cutting room floor. No Cummings which isn't a great surprise, also no Swift in the UAE team.

                                https://twitter.com/TeamDiData/status/1012634209175908352

                                https://twitter.com/TeamDiData/statu...34209175908352

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                                  #41
                                  Le Monde is reporting that ASO have banned Froome from starting the race over the salbutamol issue.

                                  Sky have unsurprisingly appealed, and a hearing is to be held on Tuesday.

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                                    #42
                                    Who is the appeal to? If it's at CAS then Sky should win, Froome isn't suspended and the situation is only public knowledge due to a leak and against the anti-doping rules (WADA must be quite desperate that Froome gets banned, otherwise they might find themselves paying rather substantial damages over it coming out). If it's to ASO themselves, then the ban will probably stand.

                                    Comment


                                      #43
                                      The Tuesday appeal appears to be to ASO, which considers itself to be in a strong position given its express power to bar riders for conduct that tarnishes the reputation of the race.

                                      I’m not sure that CAS could hear the case in time.

                                      Comment


                                        #44
                                        Completely unsurprising that ASO have done this, they've been indicating their unhappiness with the situation for months. They've made various noises in public and presumably have done the same in private (probably along the lines of "are you sure this would be safe for Froome?"), now they've realised Sky are going to pick him and have gone for the nuclear option.

                                        ASO have a regulation to bar riders from starting / continuing if they are felt to be damaging the image and reputation. I presume this is more legally watertight than when they failed to prevent Virenque from starting some years back, which I think he overturned in the courts.

                                        Appeal is to CNOSF, who are the French national Olympic committee, to be heard on Tuesday with the result on Wednesday.

                                        Comment


                                          #45
                                          Yes it is the CNOSF, I hadn’t read the whole article before.

                                          Monde notes that CNOSF overruled ASO on very similar timing when they tried to bar Boone over his cocaine issue in 2009, but I believe that ASO have modified the rules since then to give them more power.

                                          Comment


                                            #46
                                            Froome cleared. Keeps Vuelta, keeps Giro, presumably now will be free to ride the Tour.

                                            Comment


                                              #47
                                              What a relief.

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                                                #48
                                                A relief? Really?

                                                Sky have the best lawyers, don't they?

                                                ASO will be really annoyed with the UCI this morning. According to the UCI statement, WADA told them on Thursday that they could no longer regarding Froome's sample as being a positive ('Adverse Analytical Finding'). You would think someone from WADA could have informally told ASO to hold off from doing anything about Froome until today as there would be significant news likely to affect their decision coming. Instead they have rather hung ASO out to dry.

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                                                  #49
                                                  Unless this tweet is right, and ASO did know and where making some kind of point prior to the news coming. Froome's reputation is permanently damaged, whatever the official decision.

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                                                    #50
                                                    I don't see there being any formal reason why WADA should have informed ASO of the outcome on Thursday - but the UCI certainly could have done this, particularly given the close links between their president Lappartient and ASO. Maybe he was too busy grandstanding again. Suppose it could also be possible that ASO blocked Froome on or before last Thursday and the news only leaked out yesterday.

                                                    Expect Brailsford will emerge from hiding now and start blathering off all over the Murdoch press about how there's not a stain on Froome's character or some similar bollocks. The reputation of both rider and team have been substantially tarnished both by the incident and their response to it.

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