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Grand Slam or Sham? Tour de France 2018

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    Champs favouring a power sprinter as usual as Kristoff wins following a brave late attack from Lampaert that almost stuck.

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      Chris Froome has just given a really gracious and fulsome congratulatory interview about Thomas. Fair play to him. He must be gutted not to have got the 5th.

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        Fantastic and unbelievable.

        If I was G, I'd wear those yellow shoes around the house for the rest of my life.

        Greatest Welsh sportsperson ever?

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          Good running of the Tour, that. It was one of those editions we get roughly once a decade where you can feel a massive changing of the guard taking place. We saw some familiar names from recent years in decline - Froome, Nibali, Valverde, Cavendish, Greipel - and some others who had poor races but whose time might still come again - Kittel, Quintana, Bardet. In their place we got riders breaking through at this level who will be key features of the race in coming years - Dumoulin, Roglic, Bernal, Gaviria, Alaphilippe.

          Thomas deserved his win as he was the best rider in the race. He resourcefully accumulated time in different situations and managed to avoid his traditional bad day or crashing anywhere. His win had a certain similarity with Wiggins in the way the stars really did align for him in terms of route, preparation, opposition, incidents and accidents . Sky had to put him on a programme as Tour leader given the uncertainty as to whether Froome would even start yet Froome being there meant the pressure was taken off him. Then Froome had his crash on the first day, that was an immediate time loss followed by another smaller one on the Mur de Bretagne and it was clear who Sky’s strongman was. It’s a neat bookend to this British Era - I don’t think either of them will win this race again. Thomas gets his glory year when everything came together, Froome shows signs that his career arc is on a gentle decline - that attack at Alpe d’Huez would have stuck in the past. He also got beat by Dumoulin who also did the Giro. Sky are talking of sending him to the Vuelta, that’ll exhaust him further, there would be value in shutting him down for the season now. There’s no other British rider who looks likely to win the Tour anytime soon - Adam Yates was very disappointing and unless Tao Geoghegan-Hart really develops I think the next winner is someone we don’t know of yet.

          Sky have got a big problem going forward with the dynamics of the team. Thomas still hasn’t signed a contract for next year and although it was reported that a deal was ready before the race he should now be able to request certain assurances as to his programme. He can’t simply be fobbed off with doing the Giro if he doesn’t want to (quite aside from the fact that it wouldn’t really suit him). The other fact is that neither Thomas nor Froome is even the medium term future of the team, that is Egan Bernal who Sky have to keep sweet and who’s showing enough promise to be given a Grand Tour leadership next year - Froome to the Giro, Thomas to the Tour, Bernal to the Vuelta maybe?

          Was pleasantly surprised by Dumoulin’s challenge, it would have been a different race if he hadn’t shipped all that time on the Mur as then Sky would have needed to attack him in the Pyrenees. Roglic was impressive too, he’ll have learnt a lot about the requirements of contending at the sharp end across three weeks. Suspect this pair will be the main battle next year. LottoNL are building a strong team, Sunweb need to invest there though they were a bit unlucky to lose Kelderman the week before the start. The climbers in general were disappointing. In retrospect, although hugely entertaining at the time, the Roubaix stage was excessive. All in favour of having cobbles and testing different skills, but the sheer volume of them affected the races of too many pure climbers and put them on the back foot even if little time was conceded. Movistar’s trident was massively blunt. Landa is apparently off back to Astana, Quintana really could do with a change of teams himself just to try something different. Apparently they’re going to field the trident again in the Vuelta. Hmmm.

          Alaphilippe’s emergence as a spotty jersey candidate was highly entertaining unless you’re Warren Barguil, whose aim of becoming the French housewives favourite might just have been heftily torpedoed. My favourite stat of the race was Fortuneo’s best finishing position on any stage being 14th - not a shock this was by Barguil, but he achieved it on a bunch sprint to Sarzeau in the first week.

          Most of the sprinters going home was a bit of an eye opener. Easy to say from the comfort of the sofa but very few of them seem to ride any mountainous races at all these days which leads to the thought that many of them have become too specialised. Think ASO will look at elimination in general though, they have a track record of responding to obvious problems of which this is one. Let’s see what innovations they come up with next year, though I think the starting grid should be quietly shelved and not spoken of again.

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            Cycling, bloody hell. I don't really have anything to add; we were away at the weekend so I was just getting updates rather than watching it live but what an incredible achievement. A thread title which I regretted within moments of submitting it now seems weirdly to work, with its connotations of Rugby Union glory now fitting comfortably on the shoulders of a Welshman. And after finally getting the chance, after 8 years as a loyal servant, to lead the team.

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKihoE5hqe8&t=9m

            "The white jersey's a nice bonus, and I'm going to enjoy that tomorrow, but I'm here for Brad," said Thomas.

            Back in July 2010.

            After finishing second on a cobbled stage.

            And third on the prologue.

            And as an Olympic champion.

            And having won the British National Championship a couple of weeks before.

            And so it has been, year after year after year. First all for Brad, and then all for Froome. Yes, we doubted he could ever sustain the form over three weeks, that he always had a bad day in him, but as longeared said, that was always true of Wiggins as well.

            And I think longeared is right - that 2018 is the final hurrah of British dominance of the Tour. Six wins in seven years by three different riders, but now it's managed decline. In Froome's case, I'm reminded now of Contador in what was briefly called the "big four era" (Froome, Nibali, Contador, Quintana). After coming back from his ban in 2012, Contador managed to win two Vueltas and one Giro in the tail end of his career but his Tour de France results were: 4th, DNF, 5th, DNF, 9th. Froome may well have another go, but, as with Bertie, I think he best be able to cement his legacy with another rojo and another rosa.

            I think Thomas has a better mentality than Wiggins, in that having been a domestique for so long he is not going to take anything for granted. But as you say, depending on the route, he may still be Sky's best bet for the Tour next year too. Or, as this year, they take both as potential leaders and see who can make it stick the best, giving the Giro to someone else entirely.

            But while this race belongs, rightly and proudly, to Thomas, the new era will be about the balance of the power between the diesels of Dumoulin and Roglic or the lightweights of Bardet, Quintana and, perhaps, Aru and Landa.

            I think Richie Porte, my tip for this race a few weeks ago (!!), has got lost in the wash.
            Last edited by Kevin S; 30-07-2018, 10:32.

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              We are of course still riding the wave of the Peter Sagan era, though. And that's what really matters.

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                A totally nuts day yesterday, through a combination of some connections and outrageous blagging I ended up watching the first half of the Paris circuits from a tribune on the corner at Place de la Concorde and the second half actually on the Champs-Elysee before finding myself right in front of the presentations with the press photographers.

                A suitably ridiculous end to an insane few days. My best sporting experience since Euro 2016 by some measure, vive la France!





                Last edited by Ray de Galles; 31-07-2018, 07:56.

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                  Today’s L’Equipe front page today isn’t half bad either :

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                    Given Team Sky's origins I'd have thought they'd be keen to keep a British team leader - is there anyone with potential to replace Froome and Thomas, presuming Froome's decline continues and Thomas' begins (or his luck reverts)?

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                      Well these two will have at least one more crack at the Tour I'm sure. But they will struggle to beat Dumoulin next year, especially if he skips the Giro and/or has a stronger team.

                      The Yateses are the best of the British rest as they have a couple of top tens each to their names from GTs. They just don't seem like winners, but again, perhaps they could have that magic year like Wiggins and Thomas have. They aren't at Sky, though, they are at Michelton-Scott. That said, M-S may need to offload a GC rider with Chaves also on their books. Neither is at the level Froome has been these last six years, but that's to be expected. Froome has been era-definingly dominant.

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                        Why will Dumoulin be the favourite next year? I mean, I want to see that happen, but why?

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                          Fair to pull me up on that.

                          Thomas's career arc is a fascinating one, the way he was put on the road very early in his career (with Barloworld) as a means of building him up for the track. Then the move to Sky, where he has spent 8 years as a jack of all trades [edit - I mean a brilliant all-rounder really in case that reads unfairly], and now this.

                          But after all this, he has just won his maiden Tour in his 30s. This puts him in the company of Bradley Wiggins, Cadel Evans, Carlos Sastre, Bjarne Riis (ahem), Joop Zoetemelk, Federico Bahamontes and Gastone Nencini. Possibly some others I've missed. An elite group, but what else do these guys have in common? They won the Tour once and once only.

                          The only rider to have followed up a maiden win in their 30s with another win was Firmin Lambot, born 1886, who won the 1919 and 1922 editions. Maybe Thomas is repeating the feat 100 years later. But as I say, history is stacked against him now.

                          (FWIW both Bottecchia and Coppi, who won two Tours, won their first ones at age 29, turning 30 in the autumn after the maiden win.)

                          As for Dumoulin vs Froome - I've got to run and might return to that later...! (Though adding up their Giro and Tour times is interesting.)
                          Last edited by Kevin S; 31-07-2018, 11:40.

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                            So, Dumoulin vs Froome in 2019, then.

                            We've seen them go toe-to-toe in the Giro and the Tour, back-to-back. Froome finished 1st and 3rd, Dumoulin 2nd and 2nd. Froome's margin in the Giro was 0:46 and Dumoulin's in the Tour was 0:33. After 42 stages, there's only 13 seconds between them - less than the time penalty Dumoulin was given, for example.

                            So they look basically about level right now. So here's what I think swings 2019 in Dumoulin's favour:

                            - Age. Next year, Froome will be 34, Dumoulin 28. The average age of the winners of the Tour de France is 28/29. Dumoulin is hitting his stride now.
                            - Support. Sunweb know they're onto a good thing here and will surely give Dumoulin the backup he needs. Laurens Ten Dam is a veteran who doubled up on both races, and would likely be rested for the Giro next year to focus on the Tour. Kelderman should be back and able to support too, and maybe Michael Matthews will be sent to the Giro instead so that the team can pull around Dumoulin without any other objective. Sky's team is the best there is, so it cannot get any better. Sunweb still have room for improvement.
                            - Experience. Dumoulin has just beaten Froome in a Grand Tour. No one did that last year. Before Thomas and Dumoulin, the last person to do it (discounting DNFs) was Nairo in the 2016 Vuelta. Before that, Contador in the 2014 Vuelta. The last person to beat Froome in the Tour de France was Wiggins in 2012. We're past the peak, and the spell has been broken. Froome has been beaten by an opponent, and that man is Dumoulin.
                            - The cracks. No-one has really cracked Dumoulin this year. Froome won the Giro on the back of one astonishing attack, which papered over the cracks of the first half of the race. He didn't look like the Giro winner for the first half of the race. When Froome and Dumoulin have gone wheel-to-wheel on the toughest slopes this year, the Brit has not looked that far ahead of his rival.
                            Last edited by Kevin S; 31-07-2018, 12:13.

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                              So to go full statto on that third point:

                              Discounting DNFs, no opponent had ever beaten Froome in the Tour de France since he joined Sky.
                              Tom Dumoulin is now the only one to have done that.

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                                That's a much better answer than the one I was going to write.

                                Though I would add that the combination of Thomas' victory (and contract status) and Bernal's emergence has put Sky in a position of having to manage multiple riders who believe that they have earned the right to lead in Grands Tours. They haven't been in that bind since Wiggins/Froome (which they didn't handle particularly well), and much of Froome's success has relied on his team's absolute devotion to his cause.

                                I actually wonder if Froome is going to ride another Tour, as I can see Sky deciding that the optimum lineup would be to have him do the Giro, Thomas the Tour and one of them (or even Bernal) lead the Vuelta. I'm quite sure that would be the preferred outcome for both ASO and RCS, but that doesn't mean that Sky (and the riders) will go along.

                                I also wonder whether Sunweb is willing to invest in a super-domestique to help Dumoulin in the mountains. There were multiple occasions this year where his having someone like Gesink or Kruijswik could have given him a much more dangerous set of cards of play. If I were them, I would be going hard after Dutch sponsors to make that happen with the pitch that associating your brand with the first Dutch winner of the Tour since 1980 would produce a windfall.

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                                  Getting either of those would be a huge coup. Of course they could really upset the apple cart and go for Poels, but he has one more year at Sky. Tolhoek?

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                                    Jumbo (the team is losing the Lotto NL sponsorship at the end of the season) will have a series of rather difficult decisions to make. It isn't hard to see Tolhoek as Dumoulin's Bernal, but I'm sure that Roglic sees him the same way.

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                                      Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
                                      That's a much better answer than the one I was going to write.

                                      Though I would add that the combination of Thomas' victory (and contract status) and Bernal's emergence has put Sky in a position of having to manage multiple riders who believe that they have earned the right to lead in Grands Tours. They haven't been in that bind since Wiggins/Froome (which they didn't handle particularly well), and much of Froome's success has relied on his team's absolute devotion to his cause.

                                      I actually wonder if Froome is going to ride another Tour, as I can see Sky deciding that the optimum lineup would be to have him do the Giro, Thomas the Tour and one of them (or even Bernal) lead the Vuelta. I'm quite sure that would be the preferred outcome for both ASO and RCS, but that doesn't mean that Sky (and the riders) will go along.

                                      I also wonder whether Sunweb is willing to invest in a super-domestique to help Dumoulin in the mountains. There were multiple occasions this year where his having someone like Gesink or Kruijswik could have given him a much more dangerous set of cards of play. If I were them, I would be going hard after Dutch sponsors to make that happen with the pitch that associating your brand with the first Dutch winner of the Tour since 1980 would produce a windfall.
                                      Sunweb is actually a Dutch company, so maybe that could happen. I find it staggering that the Dutch have only produced two Tour winners, fewer than Luxembourg or the USA if you're winking at the official results. The only sporting comparison I can think of is Italy having only produced one Formula 1 World Champion*.


                                      * officially, they probably deserve a half-credit for Mario Andretti since Alberto Ascari was his hero and he didn't emigrate until he was 14.

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                                        I did cover my eyes, as suggested, but only cos I was away in Geneva for the last two stages.

                                        Did watch highlights of the TT and there was double consolation in Froome being pipped for the stage win and in Geraint Thomas not being Froome. (And he's a lovely fella and I'm genuinely pleased for Ray and that tripof a lifetime- Q: is Brailsford Welsh..?)

                                        I bought L'Equipe for the flight home and the spread they did on Alaphilippe's season was impressive. Did youse hear Pippa York nicknaming him 'Begbie'?

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                                          Brailsford was born in Derbyshire, but grew up near Caernarfon and speaks Welsh.

                                          It wouldn't surprise me if neither location "claims" him.

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                                            It was just a reference in the Swiss reports and a pic of him sharing the flag with Thomas that left me wondering.

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