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Grand Slam or Sham? Tour de France 2018

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    Grand Slam or Sham? Tour de France 2018

    The race
    An all-round course this year, including cobblestones, a team time trial, with a mixture of flat, hilly and mountainous stages. Added to this, the first nine stages have an intermediate time bonus and there is an all-action short mountain stage with a twist.

    We start on Saturday 7 July in the Vendée but they won't go over the Passage du Gois causeway this time. Not after this happened 19 years ago. Coastal stages are flat and often windy, but if the teams remain strong (as you'd expect on the first day) we should see one of the leading sprinters in the yellow jersey. Day 2 is more of the same.

    Stage 3, the Monday, is the team time trial, which is 35.5km long and has a short climb on it. The Dauphiné included one as a dress rehearsal earlier this month, which Sky won. Damage was a fairly limited 0:38 to BMC but Bahrain-Merida's riders lost 2:05.

    Stages 4, 5 and 6 are a bit hillier, more in the style of a Classic, with 6 containing the sort of steep, sharp climb to suit someone like Alaphilippe or Valverde, while stage 7 on the Friday is back to pancakes.

    On the second weekend, we have an undulating stage on Bastille day, and perhaps the French riders might be able to get a break to stick. There could be caution in the pack on the Saturday because stage 9 on the Sunday is COBBLED. That's 15 secteurs pavés. There were cobbles in the last World Cup year, and Nibali rode them like a beast, while Froome ended up in a mess.

    And relax, the second Monday is a rest day.

    But now look where we are on the Tuesday: only the friggin' ALPS! Some real midweek treats here, especially stage 11, which is shorter but packed with climbs. Its finish atop La Rosière might favour Dumoulin's style. And Thursday sees the return of Alpe D'Huez and a possible polka dot ding-dong. On that Friday, back to some respite and a reward to the sprint teams for getting their big guy over the big lumps.

    What about weekend number 3? Well, do you remember that hilly stage when the French riders who had escaped were caught and beaten by Steve Cummings on Côte de la Croix Neuve? Well, that again, basically. And Sunday's stage 15 is another long, hilly stage that could suit a strong break rider - a De Gendt or a Calmejane, for example.

    We get the Monday (23rd) off again, then into the final furlongs. And it's time for the Pyrenees. Tuesday's looks good and stage 17, the Wednesday, is the funny one. It's only 65km long, and the riders will start in waves. The first 20 on GC go off first, then then next, and so on. It's going to be very interesting to see - but one wonders if there'll be at least 3 Sky riders in that top 20...? Transition stage 18 on the Thursday, finishing in Pau with a likely gallop. Then the Friday stage is huge and contains a load of big mountains. It may not be all that GC-relevant, especially with a long descent to the finish (but you never know). However it will surely be decisive in the polka dot battle.

    Then we find our winner on the Saturday with a 31km ITT. It's a technical one, but then so was the World Championship. You'd expect Dumoulin, Froome and Porte to be able to put a good 1:30 into some of the less ITT-savvy contenders here.

    Sunday 29 July, of course, is Paris.
    Last edited by Kevin S; 02-07-2018, 10:40.

    #2
    The thread title references the ongoing farce of whether Chris Froome is:
    (a) the greatest Grand Tour rider in the world, or
    (b) about to serve a doping ban for excess salbutamol.

    It's not at all a comfortable situation for the sport to be in, especially as the guy has just won the Vuelta last autumn and the Giro d'Italia this spring. Having also won last year's TdF he holds all three of the Grand Tour titles and hence is now in an elite list with Merkx (4 in a row) and Hinault (3 in a row). No-one has ever won all three in the same season.

    He is, assuming he is allowed to start the race, the big favourite for this one. The questions marks will be over whether or not he can sustain the form he showed in the Giro (I suspect he can after doing the same last summer and autumn) and whether his supporting cast will be able to ride with him. Sky sent a very strong squad to the Giro but, then again, their whole roster is filled with very strong riders, so the squad (8 this year not 9) will doubtless be one of the best there is.

    Comment


      #3
      I think a) is certainly true, whilst if b) occurs the entire sport will be plunged into chaos as the outcome of the last 3 (at least) Grand Tours are called into question.

      I'd love Dumoulin to win it, but Sky's strength in depth and their predilection for squeezing the life out of the race will probably prevent that.

      Comment


        #4
        Originally posted by andrew7610 View Post
        I think a) is certainly true, whilst if b) occurs the entire sport will be plunged into chaos as the outcome of the last 3 (at least) Grand Tours are called into question.
        Wouldn't be the first time.

        On this side of the world I don't get to see a lot,of it. But when I'm up late enough I love it as a visual experience. I'm not attached to individuals - being very ignorant of the sport I just assume a fair smattering of the field are doped. I just love to watch the combination of the speed and the amazing backdrops.

        Comment


          #5
          Some work is required on the road to l'Aubisque following recent flooding

          Comment


            #6
            First week might be a bit dull - at least five bunch sprints and possibly a sixth on the Quimper stage which might be a reduced group with the likes of Sagan / Matthews etc. Sprinting in general seems to be in a bit of a state of flux at the moment - Greipel is past his best, Cavendish is on the decline to the extent that he hasn't won a race in Europe for almost two years, Kittel is massively out of form and there's suggestions Katusha won't take him, Gaviria has been injured, Groenewegen seems to be a bit of a flat track bully, Demare won a sprint last year but hasn't really pushed on, Bouhanni has fallen out with Cofidis and hilariously sprinted against his team mate Laporte recently, Viviani and Bennett both did the Giro and presumably won't be here and Ewan was surprisingly omitted from the Mitchelton team as they've decided to bet all their chips on Adam Yates after his Dauphine results.

            The Froome case still seems to be rumbling on at a glacial pace, time was that the Giro organisers were hoping it would be resolved for their race, now the Vuelta are making the same noises. Suspect it'll go on longer than that as well and we might go through the entire season without a resolution - it'll probably ultimately end up at CAS. Not sure how much he'll have recovered from the Giro but Sky did look strong at the Dauphine. Still think they might be a climber light though, Poels and Henao got used up in Italy, Thomas will be his usual reliable self, Bernal has been a revelation but this is his first Grand Tour (and there must be some danger Sky will burn him out) and beyond that they're relying on what they can get out of Kwiatkowski, Moscon and van Baarle.

            I think Bardet has a hell of a chance this year, but Ag2r in that team time trial scares me.

            Comment


              #7
              Weirdly - given the number of years where we've predicted, and then seen, that Richie Porte's Grand Tour hopes are dashed in some calamitous fashion - I find myself wondering if this is his year. If you were going to design a TdF for Richie Porte and BMC, you'd probably come up with this (but minus the cobbles, obvs).

              Comment


                #8
                Yeah, but it's Porte, and something will go wrong in true Porte style. In a similar fashion I've been impressed with Quintana's under the radar build up, he attacked (ooh!) and won a stage in Switzerland and he's got massively strong support in Valverde, Landa and Soler but you expect he'll get frazzled by the first week or lose time on the cobbles and then go too defensive in the mountains.

                Re the Passage du Gois; the original plan was that the race would start next Saturday and the riders would go along the causeway to the mainland for the ceremonial start - hand shaking with dignitaries, national anthem, Patrouille de France etc as they did in 2011. Then the race got shifted back a week to minimise the clash with the World Cup and consequently the tide is up, so they're having to go over the big bridge instead.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Yeah, but it's Porte, and something will go wrong in true Porte style.

                  Well, this is it. Like sending wave after wave of men into no-man's land to face the machine guns, I have no rational reason to think that Richie Porte will complete and win the Tour this year when he always finds a way to fall short (and, last year, nearly kill himself and Dan Martin in the process). But just maybe this is his time. Maybe the year when we're not talking about the Porte and Froome showdown is the year we get to see it.

                  Some team announcements:



                  Groupama-FDJ


                  Arnaud Demare (Sprinter, not as blisteringly fast as some but capable of winning after a gruelling day, 2017 French national champ)
                  Jacopo Guarnieri
                  Ramon Sinkeldam (2017 Dutch national champion, experienced all-rounder)
                  Olivier Le Gac
                  Rudy Molard
                  Arthur Vichot
                  David Gaudu
                  Tobias Ludvigsson

                  Guarnieri and Sinkeldam are Demare's launchpad. Gaudu is a young promising climber, and Molard and Vichot are able to go in breaks on tough hilly or mountainous days. FDJ's aim is to be competitive on every stage, since their man for the general classification, Thibault Pinot, is not fit to ride the Tour this year. Their best hope in that direction is Gaudu - top 20 for yellow and top 3 for white would be a great result for him.
                  http://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/ra...ditalia-383232

                  Last edited by Kevin S; 26-06-2018, 09:27.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    The white jersey



                    As we've mentioned before, cycling considers someone "young" in a similar way to how snooker considers someone "young". You are eligible for the white jersey of best young rider if you do not turn 26 before 1st of January in the year after the race - i.e. for this year, it means you need to be born after 1 January 1993. This no longer includes Bob Jungels, the Yateses, Louis Meintjes, Emanuel Buchmann or Davide Formolo - who to be fair have been around for ages now and are definitely part of the full pro grouping.

                    Looking at the provisional listings on PCS, we get the following eligible riders at the moment.

                    Saying goodbye to the riders I mentioned above the table does freshen this jersey up nicely for this year as we'd been seeing those names for what seemed like a long time. Egan Bernal is Team Sky's shiny new toy. He's already won six times with Sky this year including time trials both in the Colombian national championships and the top-level Tour de Romandie. However Pierre Latour is also a good TTist, and won the French national last year - and indeed so is Movistar's Marc Soler. Guillaume Martin came 5th in the white jersey last year and, as a 25 year old, this is his last year of being eligible. Three of the four who beat him are no longer eligible but the one who is, Tiesj Benoot, isn't someone I'd put down as a GC rider - one day races are more his bag. So we can add David Gaudu to this list I think. He and Bernal are the climbiest of the bunch, I'd say, but Bernal in the form he is in, plus his ability against the clock, will probably start as favourite, unless he just has to burn himself out for the sake of Froome and wind up losing loads of time as a result.

                    Some other youngsters those with a passing interest may recognise include Stefan Kung (is he really still a young rider? wow) who is one of the best time triallists around but he shouldn't figure too much on the mountainous stuff. There's a couple of big name sprinters in this list, too, like Groenewegen and Gaviria as well as other improving fast men like Bauhaus and Cort Neilsen. Sky's Gianni Moscon is a brilliant rider and also a complete arsehole.
                    Last edited by Kevin S; 25-06-2018, 11:12.

                    Comment


                      #11



                      Lotto Soudal
                      Tiesj Benoot
                      Jasper De Buyst
                      Thomas De Gendt
                      Andre Greipel (pictured)
                      Jens Keukeleire
                      Jelle Vanendert
                      Tomasz Marczynski
                      Marcel Sieberg

                      Here's another team, like Groupama-FDJ, who are going to want to compete on a lot of stages. Greipel is the big name sprinter who has 11 Tour stage wins to his name going as far back as 2011, in every year apart from last year. However his best results this year came way back in January in Australia, since when the only riders he's won against have been relatively modest fields.

                      Thomas De Gendt is probably the best breakaway rider in the peloton. A TDG win is always a special thing to witness. And as mentioned Benoot is always there or thereabouts in the classics.

                      They don't have a pure climber like FDJ, but should pack a big punch on anything smaller than a mountain.
                      Last edited by Kevin S; 25-06-2018, 11:02.

                      Comment


                        #12


                        LottoNL-Jumbo

                        Primoz Roglic
                        Steven Kruijswijk
                        Paul Martens
                        Timo Roosen
                        Dylan Groenewegen
                        Amund Grondahl Jansen
                        Robert Gesink
                        Atwan Tolhoek

                        Now this is a nice team. Roglic, Kruijswijk and Gesink will be the general classification riders. They all bring something slightly different to the party so it should be interesting to see who is given the most support. Groenewegen, the sprinter, will be looking to add to his tally of TdF stage wins (1 so far, last year) and with a bit of flux in that class of rider this is a good chance to do so.
                        Last edited by Kevin S; 26-06-2018, 11:40.

                        Comment


                          #13


                          AG2R La Mondiale

                          Alex Geniez
                          Oliver Naesen (in the Belgian champion's jersey above)
                          Alexis Vuillermoz
                          Tony Gallopin
                          Romain Bardet
                          Pierre Latour
                          Axel Domont
                          Silvan Dillier

                          Ah, and another quite exciting squad. Geniez has ridden for GC himself in the past so will be a good deputy to have around. Bardet will be going for yellow and this is as good a chance as any he's had, and with any luck AG2R might be able to dovetail a bid for the white jersey for Latour as well. Then there's Naesen, Dillier and Gallopin - winners of big one day races in the past such as national championships or classics - who will look to figure on some of those tough-but-not-a-mountain-stage stages.
                          Last edited by Kevin S; 25-06-2018, 11:05.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Anybody but Froome and Sky. Anybody.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              As things stand Bernal winning the white jersey would be a happy accident for Sky. Their sole aim will be to win the overall with Froome and any wider ambitions will be sacrificed if necessary. He won't get any support in the first week - he'll be on domestique duties while Froome will be leader and Thomas will get some degree of protection. If he gets through all that then he might end up doing a Landa and achieving a high finish overall but they won't defend him in the white jersey until Froome's victory is secure / completely gone south.

                              Soler will have a similar fate I expect - he'll be below Quintana / Valverde / Landa in the Movistar pecking order and won't go for GC unless something happens to at least one of them. Could see him ending up in about 47th or something, not least because his form didn't look great in the Dauphine.

                              Latour had a decent run to 29th last year, he's definitely improved since then and although Bardet is clearly their main man the white jersey could be a useful consolation prize for the team.

                              Tolhoek looks like the Dutch rider with a big future, think he's got a lot more potential than the overhyped Sam Oomen (who's not here as he did the Giro), his time trialling needs a fair chunk of work but he could certainly spring a surprise.

                              Was a bit surprised Guillaume Martin didn't end up on a World Tour team after his ride for Wanty last year but his form looks reasonable and he should be able to look after himself in the mountains even if support will be fairly limited.

                              Gaudu seems to be having an element of second-season-syndrome and could be brilliant or just as easily have gone home by the time the race reaches the Alps.

                              Comment


                                #16
                                Good call on Tolhoek, longeared, his three top 20s in WT races this year had passed me by. Looks good. I suppose he may suffer from having to support the senior riders in the same way as Bernal and Soler though? So I guess at the moment it is looking reasonably good for Guillaume Martin.

                                (I'm assuming that Astana are not going to put Miguel Ángel López in for the Tour after the Giro.)
                                Last edited by Kevin S; 25-06-2018, 12:55.

                                Comment


                                  #17


                                  Mitchelton-SCOTT

                                  Jack Bauer
                                  Luke Durbridge
                                  Mathew Hayman
                                  Michael Hepburn
                                  Damien Howson
                                  Daryl Impey
                                  Mikel Nieve
                                  Adam Yates (pictured)

                                  Hayman is 40 years old, by the way. So this team is here to support Britain's Adam Yates, who managed fourth place in 2016, winning the white jersey, and 9th in last year's Vuelta. He came second in the Dauphine recently, too. Nieve and Howson are the key riders in the mountains for him, while the other five riders all have good power on the flat and lower hills.

                                  Obviously the revelation with this team is that they have left out Caleb Ewan, as mentioned already, and any chance of getting sprint wins (though Impey can still win on an uphill drag strip). Ewan has many podium places this year but is short of wins, and the team has decided to sit him out of the big one as a result. Seems to be a few rumours that Ewan is on his way at the end of the year.

                                  https://twitter.com/CalebEwan/status...45336104079360
                                  https://twitter.com/CalebEwan/status/1009745336104079360
                                  Last edited by Kevin S; 25-06-2018, 13:34.

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    The Fantasy Tour de France is live! I've signed up for standard and purist this time as I can't see myself using up all my free races otherwise. A little bit tempted to go into the French riders only league but the TdF is the most international race, so there would probably be quite a limited field.

                                    Comment


                                      #19


                                      Movistar
                                      Andrey Amador
                                      Daniele Bennati
                                      Imanol Erviti
                                      Jose Joaquin Rojas
                                      Marc Soler
                                      Alejandro Valverde
                                      Mikel Landa
                                      Nairo Quintana

                                      Wowsers. Talk about your galacticos. Take Andrey Amador for example, who will be a mountain domestique here. He has two top ten finishes at the Giro d'Italia to his name. I suppose the question is whether this team will have too many leaders. Landa was held back to an extent by Froome last year and he will be hoping that this year he hasn't been given instructions to play second fiddle to Nairo. Or maybe they have spent June reading Movistar's Big Book Of Daft Tactics. Or maybe it will all come together and work and one of these guys wins the Tour.

                                      Comment


                                        #20

                                        The yellow jersey (maillot jaune)

                                        So it's a course for all-rounders. Week 1 involves that TTT and a cobbled stage 9 at the end of it, as well as some possible strong winds, and some finishes that will suit well-positioned, strong riders. In short, week 1 is not for Quintana, while Valverde and Nibali might fancy their chances of some time bonuses. The TTT should play to the strengths of Froome, Dumoulin, Porte and the LottoNL team. I think we should expect that some of the favourites will suffer in this first week. The second week is a mixture of Alps and big hills, and represents a decent chance for someone like Bardet or Nibali to get ultra-aggressive if they want to make some time up before the run-in. Of course, Froome and Roglic are no slouches downhill themselves, either. The third week is a test of power and endurance with the Pyrenees and the ITT. I think Porte and Dumoulin will be looking forward to these stages, and Froome if he has anything left in the tank.

                                        Will Quintana attack, and if so, when? He knows he will need a big lead over several riders before that ITT and I just don't know if he will be able to manufacture it. I think the all-round nature this year favours the big engines, so I'm even giving Roglic a decent chance. Given that Froome and Dumoulin have the Giro in their legs, I am still edging towards Richie...

                                        So, my ratings:

                                        ***** Froome, Porte, Dumoulin
                                        **** Quintana, Roglic, Nibali, Bardet
                                        *** Yates, Landa, Uran
                                        ** Fuglsang, Valverde, D. Martin, Mollema
                                        * Zakarin, Thomas, Pozzo, Barguil, Majka, G. Martin and the other youngsters
                                        Last edited by Kevin S; 26-06-2018, 09:56.

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          At least officially, Roglic is supposed to be riding for Kruijswijk, though that won’t hold if the Dutchman yet again fails to reproduce the form he seems to have lost in that snow bank on the Colle d’Agnello.

                                          Comment


                                            #22


                                            Wanty-Groupe Gobert

                                            Thomas Degand
                                            Timothy Dupont
                                            Guillaume Martin
                                            Marco Minnaard
                                            Yoann Offredo
                                            Andrea Pasqualon
                                            Dion Smith
                                            Guillaume Van Keirsbulck

                                            Only the three Belgians in this Belgian team. They are one of the wildcard entries from the second division but, as mentioned, they have a French rider with a reasonable shot at the white jersey in G. Martin.

                                            Andrea Pasqualon is a sprinter in good form this year - a fair number of wins in second level races and fourth place in the top level Eschborn-Frankfurt. Will be a good each way punt on flat days, I'd say. (Edit - or Dupont... not sure who gets priority for sprints in this team?)
                                            Last edited by Kevin S; 26-06-2018, 15:24.

                                            Comment


                                              #23



                                              Quick-Step Floors

                                              Kings of the Spring, this lot, counting up Classics wins like ordinary cyclists pop gels. The 1-2 punch of Richeze leading out Gaviria for a sprint is a magnificent sight when it works. Terpstra and Gilbert are multiple winners of the biggest one-day races on the calendar, called Monuments, while Lampaert is no slouch either with some classics wins to his name. I expect he will be in a support role along with Declercq. Which leaves Jungle Bob - he's going to be filling the Dan Martin shaped hole in the team, riding for himself, competing for stages where he can and either aim to get a reasonable GC placing (he might on this course) or perhaps go for the polka dots from breakaways.

                                              Edit - Christ, I forgot to mention Alaphilippe! He's like a younger, Frencher and hopefully less dodgy Valverde. A joy to watch.
                                              Last edited by Kevin S; 26-06-2018, 11:49.

                                              Comment


                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
                                                At least officially, Roglic is supposed to be riding for Kruijswijk, though that won’t hold if the Dutchman yet again fails to reproduce the form he seems to have lost in that snow bank on the Colle d’Agnello.
                                                That's just bonkers! Roglic has won three GCs this year - only Valverde has won more.

                                                Comment


                                                  #25
                                                  As OTF's number one Roglič fan, I very much agree, but the official line is that Primož is focusing only on one week races this season (and as won three of the five he's entered, as you note).

                                                  Comment

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