If Russia 2018 Contained 48 Teams

[Satchmo Distel]

Exercise: Divide the 8 groups into two based on seeding pots and then distribute the 16 teams (Q) would have joined them under WC 2026 criteria (see slot allocation here*). Assume the draw in 2026 will try to avoid having in any group two teams from the same federation.

e.g.

A) Russia (Pot 1, host)), Saudi Arabia (Pot 4), Chile (Q)
B) Uruguay (Pot 2), Egypt (Pot 3), N Ireland (Q)

*That wiki page is erroneous currently because it assumes only one host not three, but that would not matter for 2018.

[N est à?]

C) Portugal (pot 1), Morocco (pot 4), Syria (Q)

D) Spain (pot 2), Iran (pot 3), Honduras (Q)

E) France (pot 1), Australia (pot 4), New Zealand (Q)

F) Peru (pot 2), Denmark (pot 3), DR Congo (Q)

[N est à?]

G) Argentina (pot 1), Nigeria (pot 4), Italy (Q)

[N est à?]

H) Croatia (pot 2), Costa Rica (pot 3), Cote d'Ivoire (Q)

[N est à?]

I) Brazil (pot 1), Iceland ( pot 3), Uzbekistan (Q)

J) Switzerland (pot 2), South Korea (pot 4), Honduras (Q)

K) Mexico (pot 2), Serbia (pot 4), Ghana (Q)

L) Germany (pot 1), Panama (pot 4), China (Q)

M) Belgium (pot 1), Japan (pot 4), South Africa (Q)

Mouth watering

[Satchmo Distel]

If two teams are going through, the format essentially inserts 16 intercontinental playoffs for the teams in Pots 3 and 4, plus some hammerings by the Pot 1 sides. The danger of an Austria v West Germany type fix in the 3rd game is also very high. The sequence of games becomes critical for controlling your own destiny, whereas currently it's a minor factor.

In addition, no Pot 1 v Pot 2 clashes until the 49th game of the tournament so no Portugal v Spain, Germany v Mexico, Brazil v Switzerland, France v Uruguay, England v Belgium, Poland v Colombia

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

I don't think they will seed the draw apart from geographically, for all the reasons above. It's too neat to be able just to draw 1 UEFA team into each group at random, and still allow the possibility of say Germany v Brazil in the first round. Surely they'll realise the need for some marquee games early on.

[Satchmo Distel]

I would think so too but imagine the stink if the third team in the Germany-Brazil group is Mexico whereas another group is Serbia-Saudi Arabia-Honduras. It wouldn't be morally wrong to have such a draw but it would make it more of a pot luck event, which is either a good or bad thing depending on your POV.

Another pot luck factor is the last 32 that results. You could get Germany v Brazil and Chile v Panama. Again it's totally subjective whether you think that's good or bad.

[Satchmo Distel]

Look forward to Panama and Saudi Arabia qualifying every time alongside other hapless minnows. Probably playing each other.