Iran and Israel

[San Bernardhinault]

I mean, it's even more fucking stupid because nobody else is moving back on this deal. Iran still gets to trade with 190-odd countries and now doesn't have to adhere to the terms of the agreement.

[Eggchaser]

Trump dancing to someone else's tune as ever.

[Lang Spoon]

It’s been a long time since Hezbollah did anything in the West, isn’t it? Hmmm.

[Nefertiti2]

a take from Iran

"“Iran had abided by this deal, and not only does America want to go back on its word, but it also seeks to spread lies about our activities” Hasan told me, angry at the narrative now coming out of the United States and Israel. “Look, I make movies for a living, and what the United States and Israel are doing today is a carbon copy of the screenplay they used to sell the invasion of Iraq in 2002. We were naive to think the Americans would stick to their promises in this deal, but are the American people and the rest of the world really that naive to fall for the same lies again?”

No matter what policy Trump settles on going forward, the men I talked with all said they want Iran to continue working with Europe. “But we won’t be this naive again, not when it comes to America,” Mehdi, a high-ranking member of the IRGC, said. “The old clerics at the top of our government, most of whom have never trusted the United States since taking power, are probably having a good laugh at us right now.”

Narges Bajoghli is a Postdoctoral Research Associate at the Watson Institute at Brown University.

[ad hoc]

If imposing sanctions on dangerous unhinged threat-to-world-peace nuclear powers is a good idea (and I think it probably is) then I think the world should impose them on the US and Israel

[Lang Spoon]

What’s the state of China’s relations with Iran (and indeed the Saudis and Israel axis)?

[Nefertiti2]

It's given the Iranians an opportunity for a hell of a burn

https://twitter.com/yeh1a/status/993925191905566720

[Lang Spoon]

Saves on the bother of what the fuck to do with my life, I’ll say that for impending disaster.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Aside from turning the US presidency into a global joke, Trump has done five things to fundamentally weaken the US position as world hegemon. He's managed to completely destroy the state department, and dismantle much of the apparatus of US empire. He's destroyed the US's status as a reliable partner with his Nato Summit Stunts, by this bullshit along with Paris, He withdrew from that trade deal with the countries ringing china, and that Qatar Bullshit is a real reputation killer.

There seems to be a good chance that this deal will simply carry on without the US, and suddenly along with the TPP carrying on without the US, you're starting to see the dangerous cracks in the US's position as hegemon. This is when wars traditionally happen btw.

[Antepli Ejderha]

I mean, it's even more fucking stupid because nobody else is moving back on this deal. Iran still gets to trade with 190-odd countries and now doesn't have to adhere to the terms of the agreement.

The US will say they are breaking their sanctions and penalise them forcing many western countries to join in with the sanctions. That's just going to drive Iran to Russia and China.

[Lang Spoon]

Aside from turning the US presidency into a global joke, Trump has done five things to fundamentally weaken the US position as world hegemon. He's managed to completely destroy the state department, and dismantle much of the apparatus of US empire. He's destroyed the US's status as a reliable partner with his Nato Summit Stunts, by this bullshit along with Paris, He withdrew from that trade deal with the countries ringing china, and that Qatar Bullshit is a real reputation killer.

There seems to be a good chance that this deal will simply carry on without the US, and suddenly along with the TPP carrying on without the US, you're starting to see the dangerous cracks in the US's position as hegemon. This is when wars traditionally happen btw.

Probably why Macron (em, maybe this cunt shouldn’t be driving what passes for EU foreign policy) will cave on this, like the Principled Statesman Chris Deerin and Nick Cohen told us he was.

[Lang Spoon]

Hegemon is a good word. Ought to try and ram it into everyday work conversations.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Why do you assume that? A lot of the driving force behind the EU schtick is Trump putting the shits up the Eastern European members and the baltic members of the EU. Deliberately omitting the usual pledge to defend any member country that was attacked is a fucking big deal. I can think of three former soviet republics that did not like that.

Also he was openly laughing at Trump in his speech to congress, and he did mention the word Insane. He might make an effort to convince Trump to change his mind, but that's not going to get very far. What trump is doing in this instance is so fucking mental, that it almost more difficult to go along with them. I'd be more worried about the new Eunuch on the bloc, the UK.

[Nefertiti2]

https://twitter.com/Dannymakkisyria/status/993938124274393088

https://twitter.com/MairavZ/status/993933293719404544

[Tubby Isaacs]

Macron could do with political support at home. Caving into Trump isn't going to help him.

[Lang Spoon]

He does seem successful in having French policy in Africa become the de facto EU position. Which is definitely not a Good Thing. And I think they will hang out Iran to dry in the name of continued good relations with Israel and the fight against Terror, but really the threat of sanctions will seal it. Poland, Slovakia and Hungary seem to have put aside fear of Russia in favour of cementing authoritarianism at home. Don’t get me started on the President of Lithuania and her “journey” from kleptocratic ex communist party to strident kleptocratic enabling free marketeer.

[Lang Spoon]

And if sanctions against the EU do look fer real, I can definitely see us (the collective 27) throwing Iran under a bus. Let alone the rogue state Britain.

[Nefertiti2]

the threats begin (from the US ambassador to Germany)

https://twitter.com/mathieuvonrohr/status/993975352874631169

[E10 Rifle]

Iran will definitely be tossed under the bus by the EU + Britain. And this deal will embolden the worst elements in Iran, as Nef's posts make clear. It certainly will do the precise sum of fuck all for Syrians being brutalised by Iranian adventurism in their country.

Re, America's position as world hegemon, this has been looking shaky for a while, and accentuated by the catastrophe in Iraq (one of many reasons why the "stop banging on about Iraq" parochial whine is such a historically ignorant and stupid approach). I remember starting a thread on the old board around 15 years ago called "The dying rage of empire", wondering whether the US's insane policies back then were a reflection of their weaknesses and insecurity rather than rule-the-world self-confidence. We had a good old chinwag about it all anyway, and I'll try to dig it up if I get a moment.

Trump is that tendency taken to the power of ten.

[Gangster Octopus]

The dying rage of empire?

[E10 Rifle]

Tremendous work GO. What a very very long time ago that all seems. And yet somehow not.

[ad hoc]

Follow the money https://lobelog.com/three-billionair...al-withdrawal/

[Satchmo Distel]

The US wants the perks of empire without any of the responsibilities

[ad hoc]

Rockets fired from Syria at Israeli positions in the Golan Heights (which is technically also in Syria*). Israel responds with (as usual) a much bigger assault on Syria. The IDF claims that all the rockets were fired by Iranian forces (which could be true, but I have learned over the years to never take anything the IDF says at face value). I can't see any of this ending soon or ending without escalating severely.

(*The Guardian reports them, weirdly, as "The Occupied Golan Heights adjacent to Syria", which is somewhat contradictory)

[ad hoc]

https://twitter.com/OmarBaddar/status/994445396662472705