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    World Cup Betting

    I had thought after 2014 that nobody would make Brazil favourites to win a World Cup again for a very long time, especially in Europe, yet here we are four years on and, although Germany are slight favourites in most markets, the Brazil blinkers are still on display:

    https://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/winner

    Brazil being above France does not compute with me at all. Argentina haven't won it since 1986 but there is a huge reservoir of people who always believe this year will be the exception.

    England above Portugal is punter madness and an obvious case of patriotism ruling the head.

    Germany 9/2
    Brazil 5/1
    France 6/1
    Spain 7/1
    Argentina 8/1
    Belgium 11/1
    England 16/1
    Portugal 25/1
    Uruguay 28/1
    Colombia 33/1
    Russia 33/1
    Croatia 40/1
    Poland 50/1
    Mexico 80/1
    Switzerland 80/1
    Denmark 80/1
    Sweden 100/1
    Senegal 125/1
    Serbia 150/1
    Egypt 150/1
    Iceland 150/1
    Last edited by Satchmo Distel; 22-03-2018, 21:55.

    #2
    Brazil might well turn out to be an Argentina '86 deal: a team of competent players lifted by a genius (if Neymar finally proves that he indeed is a genius). Though I doubt that most of the punters who put money on Brazil are such students of the game as to recall the circumstances of Argentina's win in a World Cup where only two teams deserved to win the thing, and neither reached the final.

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      #3
      England and Denmark?

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        #4
        Argentina had no settled team prior to '86. It all came together in the last few weeks before the tournament. Brazil are going to make sure they are solid so as to avoid any risk of the 7-1. It might make them too conservative. Relying on Neymar for creativity does not work if he's unfit. Argentina are leaning even more on Messi going on how they qualified. This all points to a European team winning it but the betting never reflects that. The bookies must love it.

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          #5
          Originally posted by Gangster Octopus View Post
          England and Denmark?
          Iceland 150/1 apparently ten times less likely to win it than England.

          But really because their population is too small to affect the market.

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            #6
            The European champions seem quite long odds. Longer than England!

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              #7
              I don't bet because all of my sports watching never links to an ability to pick a winner; however, if you want to place a bet based on my track record, here you go:
              WC 2010 I picked the Netherlands to win (I think beating Spain)
              Euro 2012 I picked Italy to win (I can't remember who I thought Italy would beat)
              WC 2014 I picked Argentina to win (I had Argentina beating France)
              Euro 2016 I picked France to win (I think I had France beating Belgium)

              I made all of these picks before the tournament started. But if you remember the finals, you will see that I have selected the loser in every final. So, if you want to place your bet now, I have Brazil beating Germany in the 2018 final. That means you should probably put money on Brazil getting the final and losing.

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                #8
                Idly browsing the odds the other day I was struck by Aguero's top scorer odds being as high as 33/1- nobody can see past Messi.

                Firmino's even higher, but he is less likely to be a 1st 11 fixture.

                My only as-yet-decided basic bet is going to be Egypt and Serbia to qualify, double.

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                  #9
                  belgium at 12, 11 to one seems like good odds

                  how is kompany these days?

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                    #10
                    Just had my first look at the odds and was surprised to see Brazil as favourites over Germnay, but pre-WC friendly form has been better, I suppose.

                    I'm struggling to see the type of long shot bet I had last WC with Colombia and with Uruguat the WC before. I guess Serbia at 100/1 would be the most tempting.

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                      #11
                      Actually, Serbia are 200 at a number of bookies, worth a pound for fun. Up front they're a bit crap, but strong everywhere else.

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                        #12
                        I would guess that uncertainty over Neuer’s fitness and Low’s insistence on starting him has something to do with that.

                        Brazil also has arguably an easier draw.

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                          #13
                          William Hill today

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                            #14
                            Portugal at 25s has to be worth a punt, surely?

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                              #15
                              Contenders: Germany and France seeded in different halves, so that's my tip for the finalists

                              Pretenders: Russia are obviously rubbish but who knows what Uncle Vlad has in store?

                              SolidSenders: Serbia on the up, Poland and Croatia ageing...

                              Haciendas: Panama's firework display before their 0-0 draw with NI's u-21/ u-41 motley Crues may well remain my favorite moment of the tournament

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                                #16
                                You can currently get 19/1 on Timo Werner for the golden boot. I might put 10€ on that.

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                                  #17
                                  I think Portugal are too old/may well have the post-success dip that affected previous Euro winners (esp France). Spain's problems give them more chance of getting out of the group, tho, certainly.

                                  Serbia 150/1 e/w might be interesting

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                                    #18
                                    Some of these Serbians have already won the world cup, in 2015.

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                                      #19
                                      My plan this competition is to go with certain bets only. So my entire WC18 betting kitty (50 knicker) is going on tonight's game and a Russia win at 1.49. There is absolutely no way that Mr. Putin will allow any other result. Lump on.

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                                        #20
                                        Must be a lot of mugs lumping on England for them to be 16-1. Brexiters and other loonies.

                                        They should be in the same range as Uruguay and Croatia. The one plausible reason you could give was they won their easy group and looked OK in friendlies, but that is quite normal for them before a flop tournament.
                                        Last edited by Satchmo Distel; 14-06-2018, 11:21.

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                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by Satchmo Distel View Post
                                          Must be a lot of mugs lumping on England for them to be 16-1. Brexiters and other loonies
                                          England are similarly (over) backed with English bookies in every tournament. It's the 'housewife's friend' principle sexist though that is.

                                          The Gardner coupon

                                          France- overall winner 6/1

                                          Werner- top scorer 14/1

                                          Serbia- group winner 7/1

                                          Poland- group winner 9/5

                                          potential win: 796% of stake

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                                            #22
                                            I've got Serbia e/w 150/1
                                            Serbia and Morocco to qualify dbl 4+/1
                                            a line of 'any 3 from 5' draws: Egy-Uru; Spa-Por; Pol-Sen; Per-Den; Swe-SKor (all 5 350/1)
                                            Russia/Morrocco win dbl in 1st games 3/1

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                                              #23

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                                                #24
                                                I think the odds are reasonable as they reflect the unbalanced draw rather than actual team strengths. Best value might be Mexico. Having them longer odds than Argentina is mad.

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                                                  #25
                                                  Some great betting opportunity here due to the fact that the brackets are likely to be heavily imbalanced, with the top 5 teams in that last table above all in the top bracket; here is a very likely matchup scenario:

                                                  Spain-Russia
                                                  France-Argentina/Nigeria

                                                  Brazil-Germany
                                                  Belgium-Senegal

                                                  ------------------------

                                                  Portugal-Uruguay
                                                  Croatia-Denmark

                                                  Mexico-Switzerland
                                                  Colombia-England

                                                  No "name" teams in the bottom brackets outside of the Euro title holders, although squads like Mexico, Croatia and Colombia have earned their keeps in the group phase.

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