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Heavy and hot - Cheltenham 2018

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    Heavy and hot - Cheltenham 2018

    It's time again.

    A wet winter has led to the first heavy course since 1995 (heavy, soft in places now, but more rain for Thursday/Friday), which some would have you believe means it levels the playing field and we'll get 33-1 shots lumbering through to win.

    I tend to think that the best horses will win whatever they're running on, and they're out training in all weathers so none of it is new.

    Altior is my festival banker - Douvan and Min will make it interesting for him, but the way he took the piss on comeback at Newbury without breaking sweat suggests he will beat anything with ease.

    Buveur d'Air is another you can bet the house on*, and Mrs D will be opening a Coral account to take advantage of their 50/1 (£1 max bet) newcomer offer.

    Among others, I like Claimantakinforgan in the Supreme, if only for the name, and Black Corton (RSA Chase) has been a great favourite this winter since I saw it romp up on a low key Tuesday at Fakenham or Fontwell, and in Briony Frost has a great jockey/horse affinity.

    #2
    Could be a bit of a slogfest all told with the going more reminiscent of the trials meeting. Can't get excited about the Champion Hurdle at all. More looking forward to the Champion Chase (assuming Altior runs after a scare in training today) and Cue Card in the Ryanair. Not really in the mood to be watching Mullins and Ricci gurning away on my tellybox so hopefully the testing ground will make things much more of a lottery for them.

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      #3
      Three very short odds favourites tomorrow, not sure I can see any of them being turned over. Have taken a chance on First Flow in the opener but the most open race of the day looks like the 2.50, I reckon I could make a convincing case for at least half a dozen of them.

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        #4
        First race, as always, punctures the enthusiasm. My pick took off too fast, jumped right handed and was as ponderous over some hurdles as a blindfolded yak.

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          #5
          Yowsa. Somerville Boy. In the first race. My €50 stake with WH in 2005 is still alive. Whatever happens on my small scale for the rest of Cheltenham is more or less paid for.

          The roar at the start of the first race is one of the great annual moments in sport.

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            #6
            Next up Petit Mouchoir. Watch the betting fool fall.

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              #7
              I had the winner as a second string e/w bet, disappointed with Claimant, especially as my bookie wasn't paying 5 places like some.

              Shocking ride by Ruby there, hopefully he'll be better on Footpad next, the first leg of a foolishly extravagant favourites treble for me.

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                #8
                ITV seem to have gone full on BBC with their ridiculously portentious opening VT and now this "Social Stable" nonsense.

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                  #9
                  Originally posted by jwdd27 View Post
                  Shocking ride by Ruby there, hopefully he'll be better on Footpad next, the first leg of a foolishly extravagant favourites treble for me.
                  He certainly was.

                  Cogry for me in the next. Watching it on my phone in a London pub full of old money eccentrics.

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                    #10
                    Ah, for fuck’s sake!! Apples Jade takes down any number of accumulators....

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                      #11
                      Apple's Jade certainly pissed on my chips. She was very poor, and got distracted by seeing the winning post with a circuit to go. A more experienced jockey than Kennedy might have controlled her better, and positioned her better in a slow race. Never mind.

                      No Comment and De Plotting Shed in the next two I'm still comfortably up for the day thanks to a lump on Buveur d'Air and e/w on Melon, with a slight brown trouser moment when it looked like they would switch positions.

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                        #12
                        Well, First Flow, Melon, Jer's Girl and Ramses de Teillee in an E/W accumulator have, erm, accumulated to lose me my first £13.50 of the week.

                        That 'Social Stable'; what a farrago.

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                          #13
                          Originally posted by johnr View Post
                          Well, First Flow, Melon, Jer's Girl and Ramses de Teillee in an E/W accumulator have, erm, accumulated to lose me my first £13.50 of the week.

                          That 'Social Stable'; what a farrago.
                          The Social Stable was embarrassing, and you could tell Ollie's heart wasn't in it. I don't need an invite to "get involved", it's the first day of the Cheltenham fucking festival, my week off work is booked 18 months in advance, and I've got a fair amount of money invested. I'm plenty involved.

                          I also didn't need telling that over 50% of dipshits on Twitter think the odds-on favourite will win the big race. Bookmaker's odds already do a fine job in telling me what people think will win.

                          The VT attempted poetry at the start was also dreadful. It seems someone from the BBC has joined the production team, keen once more to attract viewers who don't like sport.

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                            #14
                            Sounds like I dodged a bullet by watching on B365 on my phone, along with a visit to Willie Hills at Paddington.

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                              #15
                              I have no way of getting to the bookies at present, and my phone is not smart enough to use an online one. Judging by the performances of the horses I underlined in the paper, I am very grateful for this.

                              And "Melon" is not a horse's name.

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                                #16
                                Weeble-like, I'm back into the fray today, with my e/w accumulator going on Vision des Flos, Ballyoptic or Elegant Escape (to be decided in the betting shop; last time I did this my decision cost me around 700 quid...), Red Indian and Bless the Wings.

                                I'm currently looking after my partner's mum in the daytimes. The other day I suggested she might want to put a bet on, and my God if she hasn't downloaded the ATR app and studied every bit of form on offer. She only lost 50p yesterday compared to my £13.50, so it might be working. I've just heard from my partner that her mum is obsessed at the moment, and will be phoning her bet over soon...

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                                  #17
                                  ...and they are Next Destination, Bob Bon Au Miel, Le Breuil, and The Last Samuri.

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                                    #18
                                    If it's any consolation, johnr, I'm going for Vision Des Flos and Elegant Escape too, both each way.

                                    Somehow, I have a feeling that both Altior and Douvain are not quite right, so while I find Min a bit scary, I'm going for the reliable Politologue to skip through the carnage and win.

                                    Not that this advice is worth much. I only ever bet on Cheltenham, the National and the golf majors. But I was €20 up yesterday and my 13 year old €50 account now stands at €62.

                                    Perhaps my major achievement in the last 13 years. Take that, Bookies!

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                                      #19
                                      Two winners for me yesterday - Somerville Boy and Benie Des Dieux, mostly by luck than judgement. And I'm 2 quid up on the day. I'll still be opposing the favourites today, including Samcro in the opener.

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                                        #20
                                        Black Corton, Fixe le Kap, Altior, Tiger Roll for me today.

                                        Altior and Douvan look to be on the drift...

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                                          #21
                                          Black Op, Black Corton, Fixe Le Kap, Altior, Cause of Causes, Turning Gold and Acey Milan for me.
                                          With some e/w hail marys on long shots: Gowiththeflow, Alysson Monterg, Flemcara, Vicomte de Sueil
                                          A fair bit of heart ruling head, especially with Black Corton.

                                          Samcro is arbed off with free bets and offers, including £1 at 50/1 with Betfair.

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                                            #22
                                            Absolutely outstanding by Davy Russell on Presenting Percy that.

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                                              #23
                                              Nasty fall for Ruby Walsh, broken leg again it seems.

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                                                #24
                                                That daft feature ITV did about commentary with the West Ham players makes you realise how tough racing commentary is. Then listen to Hoiles having to call the Coral Cup as they come down the hill and he didn't miss a thing.

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                                                  #25
                                                  Grateful to Mullins/Ricci for putting Douvan in the Queen Mother, meaning their fanboys lumped in and gave me odds of 11/10 on Altior, who was always going to win, apart from the 90% of the race when he looked like he would lose. Time for another underwear change.

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