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All for Jan - Slovakia 2018

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    All for Jan - Slovakia 2018

    Orginally posted this in the Viktor Orban thread in football, but it isn't the place.

    Yesterday saw Bratislava's biggest demonstration since 1989, with an estimated 50,000 gathering in SNP Square to back the movement for a 'decent Slovakia', pay tribute to mudered journalist Jan Kuciak and his partner Martina Kusnirova, and call for Robert Fico and his bunch of bandits to resign. Fico says these people, and the further 50,000+ who demonstrated all over the country at the same time, were being 'manipulated by (George) Soros and his allies'. Fico also said that to participate in such demonstrations is to 'put one's health at risk'. It is truly scary.

    But Slovakia isn't letting this rest just yet, and hopefully that will continue to be the case. There's an open-air concert here in Zilina on Sunday eve, in which a few Czech/Slovak bands who were part of the pre-89 underground are going to take part. I'm looking forward to that, it could be an exciting night. Other comparisons between 89 and this are being tentatively made too. For example, the SME daily (definitely not to be confused with Smer, the name of Fico's party) published, in today's print edition, an elevated view of yesterday's demo alongside one of the November 89 demo, with the numbers looking very comparable.

    Any thoughts on where this might be leading? I live here and I genuinely don't know.

    #2
    I'm not sure that anyone knows, though real popular involvement is always to be cheered.

    The Italians seem quite certain that Kuciak was killed by the 'Ndrangheta for having gotten too close to their activities in Slovakia. Is that also the leading hypothesis on the ground?

    Comment


      #3
      In Romania in recent years these kind of popular demos in recent years have actually caused governments to fall. Good luck in Slovakia.

      I love that you have a "most hid" party

      Comment


        #4
        here's a feature in the New York Times,

        Would love to know your thoughts on its accuracy, james

        Comment


          #5
          Thanks Nefertiti, that NY Times article is excellent, the go to for anyone who'd want to know what's happening now and why. I have one minor issue with it, where it describes Slovakia as enthusiastically European compared with Poland and Hungary. Fico and his followers are pro-EU only in so far as it ensures the receipt of Eurofunds. When it comes to taking joint responsibility, as with refugees, it's a very different story. The same would apply to the last non-Fico administration, led by Iveta Radicova. That was brought down because one of the four coalition partners withheld support for Slovakia signing up to the Greece loan package.

          As to Ursos' question, much clearly points to Ndrangheta involvement in what happened to Kuciak and Kusnirova. Yet, as the NYT piece alludes to, and a lot of Slovak media media have also pointed out, it almost seems too amateurish, thoughtless even. Did these people really imagine, for example, that Kuciak would not have shared his work with at least one confidant? Within hours of the murders, all Slovak media had published the draft of his article. I'd tentatively say that the most prominent local theory is that the killings are the 'work' of Slovak operatives somehow linked to Ndrangheta, but much lower in the food chain. There are other theories that mention Slovak, Bratislava-based 'property developers' or 'controversial businessmen' whose links to people in the government (notably Robert Kalinak, the interior minister) are fairly well-established, thanks to Kuciak and others like him. Kuciak reported a threatening phone call from one of these men last year, which police ignored. But it's hard to see what any of them would have to gain from killing him at this stage.

          One interesting little thing was highlighted by an independent MP called Igor Matovic. He is constantly alluding to corruption in Fico's government and constantly being threatened with lawsuits by Fico in return. A few days after the Kuciak and Kusnirova murders, he had a press-conference where he replayed the first TV pictures of the scene outside the house, filmed moments after police arrived. They clearly showed the head of Slovakia's anti-corruption unit. What, Matovic demanded, was the head of anti-corruption doing arriving at a murder scene at the same time as crime-scene officers, forensics and the like?

          As for Most-Hid, they have been one of Slovakia's unfulfilled great hopes since their foundation. The name combines the Slovak and Hungarian words for 'bridge' and they were established to be exactly that, a bridge between two ethnic communities. Their leader, Belo Bugar, himself an ethnic Hungarian, set them up in 2009 after quitting the much more radical Hungarian SMK party. Their main achievements have been to sideline the SMK and cause the previously openly anti-Hungarian Slovak Nationalist Party to reform and become (marginally) more reasonable. Bugar himself has been one of Slovakia's least-despised high-profile politicians for over 20 years now. But tomorrow, he and Most-Hid are to decide whether or not to quit Fico's coalition. There are questions over why they joined it at all, given that it includes the SNP and that Fico himself hasn't been afraid to wave anti-Hungarian cards around when he thought it would buy a bit of cheap popularity, but that's by the by now.

          If Most-Hid do quit tomorrow, Fico would probably continue with a minority administration, but that surely couldn't last long in the current climate. The fear is that Bugar will keep Most-Hid onside if Fico sacks a Smer minister or two, and offers Most-Hid the posts. I have a personal fear that, if the sackings included Kalinak - by far the most disliked of Fico's circle, and with good reason - that might placate some of the protestors as well. The protests have become about creating a decent (the Slovak word is 'slusny') country. Kalinak and Fico are appalling, and the necessary first step is for both to go, but the first step isn't enough.

          Comment


            #6
            Thanks james

            I'd also seen Malta mentioned andpossible links with the murder of Daphne Caruana Galizia

            Comment


              #7
              Thanks James. Yes I got the origin of the name Most-Híd.

              What is the likely outcome if the government falls? Does the president appoint a new one or must it go to an election? After the Colectiv nightclub fire here and the subsequent collapse of the government, the President appointed a technocrat government who were not tainted by affiliation with political parties and it was the best government by far that we've had in my time here. But then scheduled elections rolled round again and the parties picked up where they left off.

              Bugar would be an idiot to stay in the coalition surely? (Though obviously people are idiots and especially when they get a whiff of power)

              Comment


                #8
                Excellent post, James.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Excellent indeed.

                  Without wanting to get too conspiracy minded, it isn't hard to see how the 'Ndrŕngheta could serve as convenient fall guys for the corrupt administration.

                  At the same time, I wouldn't give too much credence to the "too sloppy" narrative. They are not the most meticulous of criminals at home, and have previous for being reckless abroad, particularly in Germany.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Thanks James, interesting. Dreadful events there, not surprising to see the Italian mafia involved, well, the ’Ndrangheta, "La Piovra" really has its tentacles everywhere, especially when booming new economies and EU funds are concerned.

                    Slovakia faces up to deep-rooted corruption problems, FT so I'll paste it below:


                    At 6.30am on Monday, the editor of the Slovak website Aktuality.sk, Peter Bardy received a phone call that turned his world upside down: one of his journalists, Jan Kuciak, a young reporter who had been investigating mafia networks in eastern Slovakia, was dead.

                    Within a couple of hours Mr Bardy was in the website’s office in Bratislava, breaking the news to his shattered colleagues that Jan had been killed. “I had to tell them that he is dead. I had to call his brother and sister,” says Mr Bardy. “Monday morning was one of the worst moments of my life.”

                    The brutal murder of Kuciak and his fiancée, Martina Kusnirova, was the first killing of a journalist since the central European nation of 5.4m people gained independence in 1993. Police suspect that it may have been connected to Kuciak’s investigative reporting — a revelation that has plunged Slovakia’s politics into turmoil, and provoked outrage among its citizens.

                    “This sort of thing can happen in Russia or Venezuela or China or somewhere else. But we are in the middle of the EU,” says Maria Nemcova from Bratislava. “It is really scary and not really understandable. Since [Monday] I have followed everything. I can’t concentrate on my work, I couldn’t sleep for a couple of nights. I feel emotionally involved.”

                    Many Slovaks share Ms Nemcova’s feelings. On Friday, tens of thousands braved bitingly cold temperatures in protest vigils across the country.
                    In Bratislava a huge crowd gathered in front of the office of prime minister Robert Fico, bearing placards with slogans such as “Mafia get out of my country” and “€1m [is not equal to] two lives”. Some Slovak media said the protests were the biggest in the country’s history.

                    This shifts the mood dramatically. The death of a journalist is a strong symbol and brings us back to the realisation that maybe not all is well. Beyond the horror at the death of a young couple, much of the emotion in Slovakia stems from anger at the deep-rooted problems with corruption that the killings have flagged up — and which a decade and a half of EU membership has failed to root out.

                    “In recent years, there was a growing sense of optimism in the country, especially in comparison with what is going on in Poland and Hungary with their problems over the rule of law. We started seeing ourselves as an island [of success], after decades of being the underdog in the region and having to catch up,” says Lukas Fila, chief executive of N Press, which publishes Dennik N, one of Slovakia’s main newspapers.

                    “This shifts the mood dramatically. The death of a journalist is a strong symbol and brings us back to the realisation that maybe not all is well and that we still have to struggle to be a free country.”

                    Since joining the EU in 2004, Slovakia has boomed. The tiny central European state has won so much foreign investment that, per capita, it is now the world’s biggest carmaker. In 2009, it became the second former communist state to adopt the euro, a move that symbolised its desire to anchor itself in the European mainstream.

                    But despite the dramatic economic gains, many Slovaks complain that corruption continues to infect national life. Transparency International’s latest Corruption Perceptions Index placed Slovakia 54th out of 180 countries, behind the likes of Cyprus, Georgia and Namibia.

                    “I feel corruption every day,” says Sebastian, a small-business owner from Cadca, a town close to the border with Poland and the Czech Republic. “If you are a young man with a small firm and you don’t have the contacts you need, then winning a tender is a big problem. The first step whenever you want to do something is to bring a present.”

                    Ms Nemcova agrees. “For many people corruption is a huge problem,” she says. “I haven’t had the chance, in inverted commas, to experience it. But my mother has health problems, and if it gets worse I know I may face the choice of whether to pay someone to make sure she is first in the queue [for treatment].”

                    The political fallout of the killings remains unclear. But pressure is mounting on the government of Mr Fico, who has dominated Slovak politics for over a decade.

                    Kuciak’s last article — published posthumously — alleged links between a member of the Italian mafia and two officials close to Mr Fico. On Wednesday, the two officials, Viliam Jasan and Maria Troskova resigned until the murder investigation is complete, but both “categorically” denied any connection to the tragedy, and claimed their names were being abused in a “political struggle” against Mr Fico.

                    The opposition is calling for the departure of interior minister Robert Kalinak and police chief Tibor Gaspar. Andrej Kiska, the president, called on Sunday for either early elections or a wide-ranging government overhaul in order to restore public faith in the state. Mr Fico rejected this. Meanwhile, the country is facing up to the death of a young couple. Kuciak was buried on Saturday. Kusnirova was buried in her wedding dress on Friday. “There is no question that a line has been crossed by these murders,” says Milan Nic, from the German Council on Foreign Relations. “Slovakia is one big village and the whole country feels this.”

                    Comment


                      #11
                      OTF is great, I'm not sure where else on the net could you rant on about life in a little-known country and get properly considered replies. Or where else you could get upbraided for implying that no'one knows what a Slovak political party's name means. Apologies for that Ad Hoc, I should have acknowledged that you would know.

                      The FT piece also rings very true, especially the 4th and 5th paras from the end, Sebastian and then Maria Nemcova.

                      I've felt this quite emotionally myself. Today was a lovely spring day, warm enough to be out on the bike and cycle along the Vah, with the snowcaps on the Mala Fatras providing a spectacular backdrop. It's a lovely country, basically, and it's capable of so much. I'm a secondary school teacher, and I've been here 15 years, after 5 next door in the Czech Republic. I didn't know Jan Kuciak or Martina Kusnirova personally, but Kuciak went to school just 10 miles up the railway from where I live. I've had a lot of students as brilliant as he clearly was, and many as idealistic. It's true that there are teenagers who are desperate to leave as soon as they can, yet there remain way more than that who are equally determined to stay, and try to make the country what it could be. It's a miracle really.

                      The thread title, All for Jan, is another of the protest slogans. On the badges, posters, T-shirts etc, the words are accompanied by a black and white outline image of Kuciak and Kusnirova, based on media photos of them. As a thread title, it's perhaps not quite right, and nor are media reports that refer to 'the murder of Jan Kuciak' but not that of Kusnirova. Kusnirova was an archaeologist and, just like her partner, should have been part of Slovakia's future. Her mother spoke at the Friday demo in Presov, her hometown, and it was heartbreaking to watch and listen to. As it was when Kuciak's sister addressed the 50,000 in Bratislava.

                      The young are going to be absolutely key here. There's a sentiment I've heard from colleagues and former colleagues of mine that bothers me, and it's especially depressing coming from fellow teachers. It basically says that getting rid of Fico, Kalinak et al won't solve anything because 'who else is there?' It's wrong on every single level. It's a passive acceptance of a government whose links to organised crime are now beyond question, and it's symptomatic of the need many in the older generations seem to have for the 'strong man' type leader, even if it's one who offers nothing but abuse of anyone who'd ask tough questions, racist pledges to keep immigrants at bay, not let us be the weak link in the Vysehrad 4, and other such crap. And it takes no account of the country's own history - Czechoslovakia's anyway - which shows that proper movements produce leaders, as opposed to the other way round.

                      We had the tribute concert on the square in Zilina this evening, and that was good. There were plenty of big local names ready to come and play 3 or 4 songs for free at short notice, and another fine turnout. So at least that's another reason to feel encouraged.

                      The focus tomorrow will be on Belo Bugar and Most-Hid. I agree with Ad Hoc, that he'd be an idiot to even countenance propping Fico up further. Apparently, he has three proposals he wants to put to the party and then to Fico. Please tell me none of them will involve selling his dignity for what would definitely be one last go at a ministerial post. We shall see.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        What a beautiful post

                        My father's family is Slovak, his parents having emigrated to the US a century ago. For complicated reasons, they were very dismissive of their home country and did everything they could to sever, and even deny, their links to the old country. That context, combined with some policy choices the government has made over the last several decades, has left me very pessimistic about the country. Your post gives me hope, which is a tremendously valuable gift.

                        Thank you.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Echoed. Please keep us updated.

                          Since dumbass has taken over, I look at my students and for the first time in many years I see some of them as leaders who will shake things up. They are way more knowledgeable and far less passive than in the past. I truly hope the youth take the reins and get the climate to become more civil and inclusive for the future.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Thanks James.

                            It is the young people in Romania who have consistently been at the forefront of street protests against corruption and "politics as usual". In the last 5 years there have been 4 successful sets of street protests (against endemic corruption following the tragic Colectiv nightclub fire, against an environmentally destructive gold mining project, in favour of making it easier for the diaspora to vote in presidential and parliamentary elections, and against a law being introduced to decriminalise minor corruption). Each time it is the young people in the cities who have led these protests and forced the government to back down (and in one case, brought the government down). However, I am beginning to get the impression that they are getting protest fatigue, and the government seems to have learned from the Trump approach of introducing so many fucked up things that attention gets diffused. I hope I'm wrong. Because if these young people can't make a difference, then they will, I suspect, leave, and Romania will sink into being the corrupt mafia-state that its leaders would like.

                            PS Sorry that i came across as "upbraiding" you. It really wasn't meant to sound like that. I wish Romania had an equivalent "Pod-Hid" party. It could really do a lot of good.
                            Last edited by ad hoc; 12-03-2018, 06:53.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Interior minister /deputy pm resigns

                              https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...y_to_clipboard

                              Comment


                                #16
                                Ursos, (I think) I totally get your father's family's position. As an independent state, Slovakia's history is very very troubled, not just post-89, but the war years too. The country's still struggling with all of it. Many thanks for your thoughts, and I just hope the next few months can justify them.

                                You, Cal Alamein and Ad Hoc are all speaking very wise words here. The protest fatigue thing is a factor that'll be need to be overcome, but the hope is definitely there. I actually think Slovakia's protest fatigue has passed. There's always been a constant drip drip of scandals and people have got angry for a while. But whoever was in charge, and it's been Fico for 10 of the last 12 years, has generally known that, if he can weather a couple of weeks of anger, things will settle down and on he can go till the next scandal. But the brutal execution of two brilliant - not to mention in-love - young people with so much to offer is different. The students I work with see Kuciak and Kusnirova as two of their own. So too do most of their parents' (and my) generation. So does pretty much every journalist in the country. These people are not letting go yet, and that is already beginning to force change.

                                Robert Kalinak, the interior minister, resigned yesterday morning. It was a fittingly ignominious exit for a man who couldn't be more contemptible if he tried. He said he hoped his going would 'stabilise Slovakia's democracy'. So much for that.

                                Most-Hid then met in the afternoon and were locked together for a worrying 5+ hours while they debated what to demand of Fico. The conclusion is that they demand an early election, or they will quit the coalition. The election would happen in early autumn. Thus far, Fico refuses to agree to it. He could, theoretically, continue with just the nationalist (SNS) party. But that's only if they don't pull the plug as well, and anyway such a government would not have a majority and wouldn't be able to pass any legislation. That would create a scenario where the president would order the dissolution of the government.

                                In a country like Slovakia, you hesitate to say a politician is 'finished', however scandal-ridden he is. But Fico looks as close to finished as could be. As Daga Danis says in a comment piece on aktuality.sk, the website Kuciak worked for, it's mainly a matter of whether he comes to that realisation by himself, or is brought to it. However it happens, hopefully it'll be the start of something, not the end.

                                Ad Hoc, when I see it from your perspective, I realise I've slightly undervalued Most-Hid. I know I said in an earlier post that their existence has diluted both the Hungarian and Slovak nationalist parties, but that's really not something that should be underestimated, given some of the rhetoric that used to go back and forth. The former leader of the SNS not only used to get away with drunken, offensive anti-Hungarian speeches, he used to get over the 5% threshold to get into parliament on the basis of them. The downside of this party's more rational approach is that another racist party has emerged to hoover up far-right support, but Most-Hid can't be blamed for that. One little curiosity the media were pointing out ahead of yesterday's Most-Hid meeting was that it was mostly the Hungarians in the party who were able to see their way to staying in the coalition. The Slovaks tended to be more definite about pulling out. That's perhaps because most of the Slovaks were in the now-defunct SDKU party, the one that led the last non-Fico government, from 2010-2012.

                                Anyway, on we go. Things might be getting better, that's the main thing. More gatherings planned for Friday.
                                Last edited by jameswba; 13-03-2018, 08:03.

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  To update this, Robert Fico has quit (for now) as Slovak PM, but gave three conditions for going. Basically, these amounted to the configuration of the government being as it was, so Fico's own Smer party, the nationalist SNS and the Slovak-Hungarian Most-Hid will retain the same share of ministerial posts as they had before. No early election is scheduled.

                                  It's a calculated move by Fico, who will remain as Smer leader. Indeed, in his farewell meeting with President Kiska, he announced that he's 'not going far away'. Peter Pelligrini, formerly education minister, and most recently vice-premier with responsibility for investment, will take over as PM and has informed Kiska that he has the support of 79 of Slovakia's 150 MPs, ie enough to lead a functioning government.

                                  What to make of this? Well, Fico and the hated Robert Kalinak both resigning within 3 days of each other is a result of sorts. But I suspect there's now serious trouble ahead for Most-Hid, many of whose supporters will see their agreement to Fico's conditions - just three days after they'd demanded elections - as a betrayal. Indeed, one of their ministers in the Fico coalition, Lucia Zitnanska (justice), has already said she will not continue.

                                  Smer and Most-Hid were sinking badly in the polls, which partly explains their keenness to continue in coalition. Fico, typically, couldn't resist a parting shot at the opposition parties, who, he claims, are incapable of serious politics. He may have a point there, and it's certainly true that the fact he's having to quit the scene now is little to do with the less than formidable opposition, and everything to do with the anger on the streets. But if he thinks that will now abate, he may have to think again. Protests already planned for Friday are very much going ahead.
                                  Last edited by jameswba; 15-03-2018, 16:03. Reason: spelling

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Massively more insightful than the Grauniad’s piece.

                                    Thanks again.

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      What's the story on this now James? I am off to Bratislava tomorrow and have to do some events where I speak, and I want to get a sense of how things are going politically

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        Sorry Ad Hoc, I missed your last post at the time. I'm now trying to think of where I was at the time. How did it go in Bratislava?

                                        I guess the answer to the question is/was that it's quietened down. Pelligrini, the new PM, has been on a bit of a charm offensive, which got him to the summer break. A new chief of police is soon to be appointed too. So the fact that the three (Fico, Kalinak, head of police) who gave the infamous press conference in front of the pile of money following the Kuciak/Kusnirova murders were all forced to go is a result in itself.

                                        I'm sure protests will spring up very quickly if there's a new scandal. A more interesting question might be whether there'll be protests if the political scene stays quiet with no substantial change.

                                        At least Slovakia's got a decent president. Milos Zeman, the Czech president, refused to give a televised address marking the 50th anniversary of the Russian occupation of Czechoslovakia following the Prague Spring. So Czech TV got permission to broadcast Andrej Kiska's speech for Slovak TV instead. I don't know if they dubbed or subtitled him, as Czech TV sometimes does with things in Slovak.

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          Another Journalist killed this time Victoria Marinova In Bulgaria.

                                          https://twitter.com/astroehlein/status/1048971728242847744?s=21

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            Thanks for linking that. Working on broadly similar stuff to Kuciak, it seems, though the manner of the attack on her is markedly different.

                                            The news from Slovakia has been brighter, with four people arrested in connection with Jan Kuciak's and Martina Kusnirova's deaths and 'controversial businessman' Marian Kocner, who'd threatened Kuciak in the months leading up to the murder, also linked. Report on this in English here :

                                            https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/6292...ed-the-murder/

                                            Former PM Robert Fico seems to think this news means that his government's (alleged) links with people close to Italian mafia now have nothing to do with anything. Except that we are only at the very beginning of a process that could reveal a lot, lot more.

                                            I must say this one more time, as there's a danger of it being forgotten ; Jan Kuciak was not the only person murdered that day. His fiancee, Kusnirova, died with him. Police seem satisfied that the sole motive for her murder is that she was there when her partner was killed.

                                            Comment


                                              #23
                                              It’s striking that all three journalists were investigating corruption on a massive scale, rather than acting as political opponents

                                              Comment


                                                #24
                                                The election news today seems very positive. A beacon of hope in the otherwise depressingly right wing "Visegrad" bloc

                                                Slovakia: pro-EU Zuzana Čaputová wins first round of presidential election

                                                https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...y_to_clipboard

                                                Comment


                                                  #25
                                                  The regional breakdown is interesting

                                                  [URL]https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1107099654590730240?s=21[/URL]

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