Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

I’d rather ask you all than google it

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

    #51
    Oh. I don't get it, then.

    Comment


      #52
      David Spiegelhalter can give you a few minutes on the general idea. A key difference from classical probability work is that this is not about calculating a theoretical probability for an uncertain event (lotteries, radioactive decay), it is about finding the likelihood that a thing did happen or did not happen.
      I guess it's the difference from "frequentist" statistics that I don't get. Maybe it's the latter I don't understand and not so much Bayesian, which sounds very intuitive.

      Comment


        #53
        David Spiegelhalter can give you a few minutes on the general idea. A key difference from classical probability work is that this is not about calculating a theoretical probability for an uncertain event (lotteries, radioactive decay), it is about finding the likelihood that a thing did happen or did not happen.
        I guess it's the difference from "frequentist" statistics that I don't get. Maybe it's the latter I don't understand and not so much Bayesian, which sounds very intuitive.

        I get the Bayesian basic idea, but I don't know how the math works.

        Comment


          #54
          The underlying concept of frequentist statistics is (cutting several corners) that the probability of an event is roughly equivalent to the frequency of the event happening in a series of observations. The idea is that you can scratch "roughly" from that sentence if you stretch the series of observations to infinity.

          So if I want to compute the probability of a coin coming up heads, I flip the coin ten times, and observe the number of heads as variable X. Then the probability of the coin coming up heads is X/10. If, instead of repeating coin flipping ten times, I repeat it an infinite number of times, this probability will necessarily converge to the real probability.

          The good thing about frequentist statistics is that it is objective: everybody will agree on the resulting probabilities. The bad thing about frequentist statistics is that you need an infinite number of observations, and who has the time for that?

          Comment


            #55
            Conversely, the core concept of Bayesian statistics is that everyone has an opinion beforehand on the probability that a given coin comes up heads. So either you think that the coin is fair, and you assign probability 1/2 to the event "coming up heads", or you have reason to believe that the coin is unfair, and assign a different probability to that event. Now if we have a series of observations, these might either match your pre-assigned probability, or they don't. In the former case, your prior belief is fortified. In the latter case, your prior belief needs to be adjusted with this new data, which will lead you to assign a new posterior probability to the event "coming up heads".

            The good thing about Bayesian statistics is that it allows you to say something about the probability of an event, way before you have seen an infinite number of observations. The bad thing about Bayesian statistics is that everyone is allowed to have a different prior belief, and hence, everyone may end up with a different posterior belief: even after observing a sequence of outcomes, people may still disagree on what the probabilities are.

            Comment


              #56
              To illustrate the difference between the two schools, the German tank problem may be instructive.

              Comment


                #57
                Why do male and female shirts, jackets etc. button on opposite sides?

                Comment


                  #58
                  Originally posted by Sits View Post
                  Why do male and female shirts, jackets etc. button on opposite sides?
                  Because men were dressed by their valets and women had to dress themselves. Or something like that.

                  Edit: I was half-right, but it's the other way round. Men dressed themselves and women had maids to do it.
                  Last edited by Stumpy Pepys; 07-03-2018, 12:33.

                  Comment


                    #59
                    Originally posted by Sits View Post
                    Why do male and female shirts, jackets etc. button on opposite sides?
                    And why do US products button in the opposite way to UK ones?

                    Comment


                      #60
                      My Timberland coat zips and buttons the opposite way to my other jackets.

                      Comment


                        #61
                        Originally posted by hobbes View Post
                        My Timberland coat zips and buttons the opposite way to my other jackets.
                        I have a jacket designed for cycling that has it on the US womens/ European side. But it was made in the US. So perhaps all cycling gear conforms to the UK/European standard?

                        Comment


                          #62
                          A long time ago I read a kid's book about a kid in the dark ages who survived by poaching game from a small boat that was round - like a big wok without a handle. I think it was propelled by polling rather than paddling. Like punting, but the boat was small and round, not long and flat-bottomed. And I feel like I read somewhere that there are still people in Wales especially who use such boats for recreation and fishing now.

                          Did I just dream that? Or is that really a thing and if so, what's it called? Because the wiki page on "punting" doesn't seem to have it.

                          Comment


                            #63
                            That sounds like a coracle

                            Comment


                              #64
                              Originally posted by ad hoc View Post
                              That sounds like a coracle
                              YES! Thanks. I want one. Or maybe learn how to make one.




                              Though it appears not all of them are round. Some of them are squarish.

                              Comment


                                #65
                                ad hoc - OTF's 'coracle oracle'.

                                The (British) coracle was traditionally used widely in Wales and Shropshire: there was one guy, the late Fred Davies, who earned fame/infamy during the seventies for watching Shrewsbury Town matches from his coracle, ever on stand-by to retrieve the ball, should Alf Wood or whomsoever decide to shank one into the Severn.

                                Comment


                                  #66
                                  Oh wow, that's fantastic.

                                  Comment


                                    #67
                                    Easy to transport too:

                                    Comment


                                      #68
                                      There is a Camarthen* Coracle and Netsman's Association with a page on Facebook that you might find interesting, HP. They also sell hand made miniature coracles from time to time, if your coracle lust can be sated by a mantelpiece sized version.

                                      * - market town in west Wales.

                                      Comment


                                        #69
                                        Originally posted by Jah Womble View Post
                                        ad hoc - OTF's 'coracle oracle'.

                                        The (British) coracle was traditionally used widely in Wales and Shropshire: there was one guy, the late Fred Davies, who earned fame/infamy during the seventies for watching Shrewsbury Town matches from his coracle, ever on stand-by to retrieve the ball, should Alf Wood or whomsoever decide to shank one into the Severn.
                                        Slight correction - he couldn't watch from his coracle, but essentially correct. Not to be confused with Fred Davies our promotion-winning manager of the early'90s.

                                        It's alleged that one foggy day he pursued a 'ball' some distance down the Severn before it revealed itself to be a swan and fucked off. That's a story that's entertaining the first 64 times some old-timer tells you.

                                        As Sits points out, the great thing about coracles was that in their day (the Bronze/Iron Age and before Sky launched the Premier League) they could be taken on long journeys, constructed, as they are, from hide stretched over a wicker frame.

                                        There you go HP.
                                        Last edited by ChrisJ; 09-03-2018, 13:03.

                                        Comment


                                          #70
                                          The Bader-Meinhof phenomenon strikes again! I'd never heard of a coracle in my life. But then one turned up in Treasure Island, which I just finished about three weeks ago. And now, of course, this.

                                          Comment


                                            #71
                                            Originally posted by Hot Pepsi View Post
                                            YES! Thanks. I want one. Or maybe learn how to make one.
                                            The Coracle Society has got your back, Jack.

                                            https://www.coraclesociety.org.uk/buildingcoracles

                                            Comment


                                              #72
                                              Changing the subject, Snakey, any news on the ignore poster button? (Smiley face.)
                                              Last edited by ChrisJ; 09-03-2018, 13:46.

                                              Comment


                                                #73
                                                Edit! Edit!

                                                Comment


                                                  #74
                                                  Originally posted by Benjm View Post
                                                  There is a Camarthen* Coracle and Netsman's Association with a page on Facebook that you might find interesting, HP. They also sell hand made miniature coracles from time to time, if your coracle lust can be sated by a mantelpiece sized version.

                                                  * - market town in west Wales.
                                                  Carmarthen, in case you can't find it under the name Benjm's given you there, HP

                                                  Comment


                                                    #75
                                                    Originally posted by Various Artist View Post
                                                    Carmarthen, in case you can't find it under the name Benjm's given you there, HP
                                                    The error is even more embarrassing once you take into account the amount of time I've spent looking at the station sign while waiting for the Swansea-Pembroke Dock train to get on the bloody move again.

                                                    Comment

                                                    Working...
                                                    X