Battle of Attrition: Melbourne edition

[Janik]

Kyle Edmund gets through a shoulder injury and the brutal heat (particularly tough on a red-headed Brit) to beat Nikoloz Basilashvili in five. He will face Andreas Seppi for a place in the quarter-final. Seppi also played five sets through the very hottest part of the day, but even it is arguably who will be the more fatigued; there is a limit to the amount watching four Ivo Karlovic serves thud past takes out of a player! Sets two, three and four of Seppi-Karlovic were breaks and set five ended up at 9-7, but even so they only played for 17 minutes more than Edmund-Basilashvili despite completing 64 games to 50.

The French players appear to be the ones really struggling with the heat. A day after Gael Monfils was seriously affected, today it was Alize Cornet's turn. Other winners joining Edmund, Seppi and Elise Mertens in the last 16 are Grigor Dimitrov (beat Rublev in four), Pablo Carreno Busta (beat Muller in four), Diego Schwartzman (beat Dolgopolov in four), Petra Martic (beat Kumkhum in three), Elena Svitolina (beat Kostyuk in two), Denisa Allertova (beat Linette in two), Magdalena Rybarikova (beat K.Bondarenko in three) and Carla Suarez Navarro (beat Kanepi in three). Rafa Nadal is surely about to join them, as he leads Damir Dzumhur by two sets and a break (Dzumhur has yet to win six games in the match). The other two Men's matches ongoing are Kyrgios-Tsonga and Cilic-Harrison. Both are even-steven, with Kyrgios-Tsonga further along the line as they are now in set three.

[ad hoc]

It was 42 degrees today. In the shade. That game where Cornet sort of collapsed had been going on 20 minutes in the full sunlight when she went down. I think in the end playing in these conditions is physically dangerous and should be stopped

[Janik]

Vital three set tie-breaker going on right now between Kyrgios and Tsonga. The match is essentially a tie to this point, but whoever edges the next few points is in substantial lead...

[Janik]

The breaker is now at six-all. Tiny, tiny margins.

[Janik]

8-6 to Kyrgios. I'm liking my tip more and more...

[Gerontophile]

Why are Kyrgios and Tsonga playing this early? (Tsonga was shite in the last round... but got through.)

[Janik]

Injuries at the back end of last season. Kyrgios' ranking dropped just outside the top 16, he is seeded 17 here. That meant he was drawn to face someone seeded 9-16 in R3. And he has won it BTW, taking set four in a breaker.

[Gerontophile]

Cracking ending. Why is Kyrgios kissing Will Smith's ass?

Will we ever see Tsonga win a tournament that matters?

I hope Kyrgios wins this, and isn't an idiot about it.

[Janik]

Marin Cilic made things slightly harder for himself than necessary but letting a break lead in set three slip, but has now beaten Ryan Harrison in three. Jelena Ostapenko and Anett Kontaveit are into a deciding set. The last match of the day is Kiki Bertens vs Caroline Wozniacki, which will be on Laver now the boys have cleared out.

[Satchmo Distel]

It was 42 degrees today. In the shade. That game where Cornet sort of collapsed had been going on 20 minutes in the full sunlight when she went down. I think in the end playing in these conditions is physically dangerous and should be stopped

Agree with this but at which temperature do you draw the line? There needs to be scientific research into the subject to make sure the cut-off is appropriate and fair to both players if a game is suspended with one player in front..

[Janik]

They already have a heat rule, which is a wet bulb measurement. That is more sensible than a pure temperature measurement as 37C and high humidity is clearly more dangerous than 42C and dry air. It would be interesting to see what their basis for the rule is, though. And how they would react if a player were to get seriously ill rather than temporarily incapacitated, which as far as I know hasn't happened for a long while.

[Gerontophile]

Or, the story about how the people of a certain area, treat people from elsewhere (with dependence on the temperature), by lying.

What IS the capital of Qatar?

[Gerontophile]

This must be so galling for the 'Tennis Channel' as they show re-runs of Kostyuk v Svitolina. It might have been a wonderful match, but you just know that they can't afford Kyrgios v Tsonga, just yet.

[Janik]

And the day ends on an epic game, Wozniacki closing out a straight sets win over Bertens with a non-straightforward (nearly 20 minute) hold of serve.

In Kostyuk's post-match press conference she called Svitolina a 'God' and acknowledged that having that reverence for her opponent probably didn't help her play her best. She also said she got an hour's lesson from Svitolina for free. No Marta. Not free. You got very well paid, to boot.

[ad hoc]

I have only just this moment realised that Dimitrov is seeded 3. I had no idea that he was even inside the top ten. When did all that come about?

[Janik]

He won four titles last year including the Cincy Masters and the Tour Finals. He and Goffin (who was runner-up at the O2) were under-the-radar beneficiaries of the problems for Murray and Djokovic.

[Janik]

Day 6 picks

Halep [1] vs Davis
Barty [18] vs Osaka
Safarova [29] vs Pliskova [6]
Kerber [21] vs Sharapova

Simona Halep looked to be moving very well in her last match (and seeing it like a Football to boot), but based on ad hoc’s reports from Romanian TV she is a serious injury doubt for this one. Is that for real? Public expectation management? Personal expectation management? Who knows, but as I’ve already mentioned up thread it’s not the first time she has sounded a little like a hypochondriac and then go extremely deep into a Slam. However, taking her at her word, she is hindered for this one. Will it matter? Likely not. Lauren Davis is a bit of a mini-me to Halep, an excellent scrambler and defender but she lacks the Romanian’s attacking weaponary. She is unlikely to extend Halep, and Halep is unlikely to be ground down by Davis’ repeated question asking of ‘can you hit another like that?’ Even with a limp, Halep in two.
There is no evidence that either Ashleigh Barty or Naomi Osaka are struggling with fitness. That bodes well for a very good match. Both got a notable wins in the last round, Barty subduing the dangerous Giorgi for the loss of the opening set and Osaka overcoming a seed when she took down Vesnina in two. In style terms this looks an interesting contrast, as Osaka is a power-baseline clone from the Bolletteri school, if not directly (she was in Florida as a kid, but I can’t find if that was Bradenton) then by dint of the dominance of that philosophy on the coaching of promising girls, whereas Barty, having come up through the Aussie system, is a more varied all-court player. She even serve and volleys on occasion. Osaka has arguably more power, but the Aussie has more nous and also the crowd roaring her on. I go for Barty in three, and hope it’s as good as it could be.
An all-Czech affair (well there is usually one somewhere along the line in a Women’s slam) featuring two players with a Slam final appearance on their CV. Both have the archetypal Czech game, with a big serve and big groundstrokes but also a go-forwards tendency. Both are highly accomplished doubles players, Safarova more than Pliskova. Lucie is definitely the more comfortable of the two in the front court, but then she has been the World No.1 in her time. As of course has Karolina, in the rather higher profile arena of singles. In terms of match-up, Safarova moves better, but Pliskova’s game is just several notches bigger. One has to go with the higher seed here.
And once again we end with the match of the round, and possibly the day despite there being other attractive propositions. This one offers light and dark though, which makes it fascinating. It is also very hard to call if past encounters are anything to go by – Sharapova leads the h2h 4-3 but that does include a 6-0 3-0 retired match that can be somewhat discounted. The last three meetings have all been three-setters, and importantly for Sharapova non-fans all happened in 2015 or early, i.e. before Kerber’s miracle year. I like Angie’s chances of squaring the series, I have to say. Her base game, athleticism and retrieving, is the sort of thing that Maria hates dealing with. She wants to impose on the opposition, and one can’t if they just keep getting the ball back. That is the strength for Angie. Her weak area is the second-serve. If this is being bowled in, she gets smashed as Sharapova won’t hesitate to go for her returns. I’m going for three, and for Germany.


Thiem [5] vs Mannarino [26]
Chung vs A.Zverev [4]
Berdych [19] vs del Potro [12]
Gasquet [29] vs Federer [2]

Dominic Thiem had to recover from two sets down to beat qualifier Dennis Kudla in R2 and he has a pretty ropey record overall on hard courts for a top 5 player. He has won just one title on the surface, has never been to a Slam QF or Masters Series SF on the surface and compiled a 21-19 overall record on hard in 2017. He is very unlikely to win the Australian Open, instead being ripe for the taking by someone more adept at playing on quicker surfaces. Will Adrian Mannarino suffice for that? He very well could have got past Vesely in R2. The Frenchman has a more attacking game, and won’t have to grind as much to get through his service games. That could be crucial on a hot day. I’ll go for a shock here.
But not in Hyeon Chung vs Sascha Zverev. That looks like a German win to me. But there should be some fun along the way as Chung is a highly capable young player. He doesn’t possess Zverev’s power, but then who does? Where the Korean is also behind his peer is in terms of experience. This is not Chung’s debut in R3 of a Slam, he made the same stage at the French last year, but he is still pretty raw at the top level. That isn’t the case of Zverev, despite being a year younger than his opponent. However Zverev does have a poor record in Slams compared to the rest of his career; it is pretty rare (possibly unheard of) for a player to rise to World No.3 without ever having playing a Slam QF. He needs to rectify that urgently and shouldn’t be blown of course in this one. Zverev in three.
A whole generation of male Tennis players will retire mostly unfulfilled because they had the misfortune to be born at a very similar time to Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Murray. Berdych has actually beaten all of these guys at least once in a Slam (a record he shares with Wawrinka and Tsonga), but despite that he has never managed to stitch it all together and collect a pot, and at 32 his chances have dimmed considerably. Berdych’s game relies on thunderous hitting, which is something that disappears quickly with age. Or with injury, as Juan Martin del Potro has found. The big Argentine at least has a Slam title to his name, but without the wrist problems would he have been outside that top echelon? That is an imponderable. Delpo is also younger than the Czech, and much younger in Tennis terms because all the time out will have meant less wear and tear on the knees and shoulder. He is capable of adding to that solitary crown, but will need to find the big game on days like this. I’ll think he’ll do it tomorrow, but my confidence isn’t high in that call.
The sine qua non of players whose careers have been ruined by the Big Four might be Richard Gasquet. Hailed as an exceptional talent as a teenager (see also Gael Monfils), and a beautiful player to watch when playing well, three SF and two QF showings in Slams is really underwhelming. That shows, in fact, that it wasn’t just the top blokes who have stood in Gasquet’s way. He has often lost before running in to them. But when he has got to that stage, it has tended to be brutal. This is particularly distressing when he plays Federer, because it was against the Swiss that Gasquet announced himself. Federer was already World No.1 when, back in 2005 and with Gasquet still a teenager, Richard won their first ever meeting. That proved a very false dawn as Federer is 16-1 against the Frenchman since then. The Swiss has won the last 19 sets between the two, many of them 6-3 or easier. It’s easy to see why – everything Gasquet does well, Federer does better. I can see no reason for this to change tomorrow.

[Janik]

Halep present and correct. First hurdle cleared, then.

[Janik]

Halep moving unhindered. Davis giving the ball a big crump. Both promising early signs, if the two players can keep each element going. They have already combined for one fine rally.

[Janik]

Backhand down-the-line has been the standout shot of the match so far. But not from Halep, even though that's her signature shot. No it's Davis who has pulled off a string of them. The Americans unexpectedly high standard means it's shaping up to be a really good match.

[Janik]

First set to Davis, and she deserved it and all. Well now.

[San Bernardhinault]

This has been good so far, but I'm worried for Halep.

[Janik]

Davis is playing on the limit here, though. Sometimes players can stay in the red for long enough to complete extraordinary wins (cf. Rosol vs Nadal) but mostly there is a reversion to the mean.

[Janik]

Halep about to serve for set two at 5-4. Goes without saying it's a vital game in the context of the match.

[Janik]

Holds to love. Nae bother.