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Battle of Attrition: Melbourne edition

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    Battle of Attrition: Melbourne edition

    Time for an Aussie Open thread I think, what with the action getting underway in a few minutes time.
    I can’t do my normal assessment on the contenders unfortunately as I’ve seen very little of the warm-up events (though Medvedev vs de Minaur was pretty good, albeit it was essentially a clay court match that had got lost and found itself on on a hard court) so feel massively under informed. Still we can at least consider a few obvious headline issues like whether Djokovic’s new service action will function (probably not), whether Muguruza is fully fit (hopefully), Sharapova will get the bird from the crowd (highly likely) and Federer will be unchallenged and serene in defending his title (I’m going for no, out in a shock before the Semis, I’m looking at you, Milos).

    On the Brit front, how will leading light Jo Konta do in what is just about her favourite event? Again, I’ll downplay that one – she is due for an unlucky year.

    Oh, and then there is the shot clock. That will piss Rafa Nadal off no end. Seems a stupid idea to me, but we will see. As you can tell, I’m coming at it with an open mind...

    But for now, here are the nominal R3 draws:

    Men's Singles

    Rafael Nadal Esp [1] vs Damir Dzumhur BiH [28]
    Diego Schwartzman Arg [24] vs John Isner USA [16]
    Pablo Carreno Busta Esp [10] vs Gilles Muller Lux [23]
    Pablo Cuevas Uru [31] vs Marin Cilic Cro [6]

    Grigor Dimitrov Bul [3] vs Andrey Rublev Rus [30]
    Nick Kyrgios Aus [17] vs Jo-Wilfred Tsonga Fra [15]
    Kevin Anderson RSa [11] vs Lucas Pouille Fra [18]
    Phillipp Kohlschreiber Ger [27] vs Jack Sock USA [8]


    Dominic Thiem Aut [5] vs Adrian Mannarino Fra [26]
    Roberto Bautista Agut Esp [20] vs Stan Wawrinka Sui [9]
    Novak Djokovic Srb [14] vs Albert Ramos Vinolas Esp [21]
    Mikhail Zverev Ger [32] vs Alexander Zverev Ger [4]

    David Goffin Bel [7] vs Fabio Fognini Ita [25]
    Tomas Berdych Cze [19] vs Juan Martin del Potro Arg [12]
    Sam Querrey USA [13] vs Milos Raonic Can [22]
    Richard Gasquet Fra [29] vs Roger Federer Sui [2]


    Women's Singles

    Simona Halep Rou [1] vs Petra Kvitova Cze [27]
    Ashleigh Barty Aus [18] vs Elena Vesnina Rus [16]
    Johanna Konta GBr [9] vs Barbora Strycova Cze [20]
    Lucie Safarova Cze [29] vs Karolina Pliskova Cze [6]

    Garbine Muguruza Esp [3] vs Agnieszka Radwanska Pol [26]
    Angelique Kerber Ger [21] vs Anastasija Sevastova Lat [14]
    Kristina Mldenovic Fra [11] vs Madison Keys USa [17]
    Mirjana Lucic-Baroni Cro [28] vs Caroline Garcia Fra [8]


    Venus Williams USA [5] vs Ekaterina Makarova Rus [31]
    Daria Gavrilova Aus [23] vs Julia Goerges Ger [12]
    Sloane Stephens USA [13] vs Daria Kasatkina Rus [22]
    Shuai Peng Chn [25] vs Elena Svitolina Ukr [4]

    Jelena Ostapenko Lat [7] vs Anett Kontaveit Est [32]
    Dominika Cibulkova Svk [24] vs Coco Vandeweghe USa [10]
    Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova Rus [15] vs Magdalena Rybarikova Svk [19]
    Kiki Bertens Ned [30] vs Caroline Wozniacki Den [2]

    #2
    Oh, go on then, a wild stab in the dark.

    Men’s – Kyrgios
    On the grounds that if its chaos, that is exactly what he needs to function at his best.

    Women’s – Svitolina
    Showed up well in Brisbane, and has been there or thereabouts for a while.

    Comment


      #3
      First set of Edmund vs Anderson has gone to a breaker. Given that Kyle's confidence must be a bit low, one feels he needs to win it to give himself a decent chance of winning the match.

      Comment


        #4
        The men's third quarter looks ridiculously strong on paper while the top half looks like a stroll for Nadal.

        Comment


          #5
          I think the fourth quarter may be even tougher than the third on the men's side. You definitely want to be in the top half. So hopefully Edmund can go deep as that's where he is and he's knocked Anderson out in 5.

          Comment


            #6
            Huh, shows what I know - Anderson won that opening time break, comfortably and deservedly, but I wake up to find Edmund won in five. Kyle had had a very poor run against top 20 players recently, something like one win in his past ten tries, so this is a major confidence boost for the season ahead.

            Likewise for Belinda Bencic, who has beaten Venus. 2017 was miserable for the Swiss, a win like that suggests it might be more of a blip than a permanent drop away a la Bouchard.

            Comment


              #7
              The top quarter looks the one to have avoided in the Women's. Halep, Kvitova, Barty, Konta and Pliskova would all begin the event with serious and genuine designs on the title. If that part goes to seeding, R3 will resemble a QF line up.

              Comment


                #8
                Other seede casualties of the first eight hours, joining Anderson and Venus on the sidelines are Makarova, Stephens, Peng, Cibulkova, Vandeweghe in the Women's and Isner and Kohlschreiber in the Men's. The American take-over that occurred in the US Open suddenly looks a one-off, because that is a very bad night.

                Comment


                  #9
                  More American failure as Jack Sock goes out

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Indeed. There were seven Americans seeded in the two singles draws. Five out of five have lost today. Be afraid, Madison Keys and Sam Querrey. Be very, very afraid.

                    The full list of American results today, including non-seeds

                    John Isner lost to Matthew Edben 1-3
                    Ryan Harrison beat Dudi Sela 3-2
                    Mackenzie MacDonald beat Elias Ymer 3-1

                    Kevin King vs Jo-Wilfred Tsonga in progress (Tsonga has just won the opening set)
                    Jack Sock lost to Yuichi Sugita 1-3

                    Venus Williams lost to Belinda Bencic 0-2
                    Irina Falconi vs Daria Gavrilova in progress (Gavrilova has also just won the opening set)
                    Sofia Kenin lost to Julia Goerges 0-2
                    Sloane Stephens lost to Zhang Shuai 1-2
                    Jennifer Brady lost to Magda Linette 1-2
                    Coco Vandeweghe lost to Timea Babos 0-2
                    Alison Riske lost to Kirsten Flipkens 1-2
                    Taylor Townsend lost to Magdalena Rybarikova 1-2
                    Cici Bellis lost to Kiki Bertens 1-2
                    Nicole Gibbs beat Viktoriya Tomova 2-0

                    That is a litany of woe, isn't it?

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Oh yes, and talking of a litany of woe, Sam Stosur lost in round 1 again. She had a tough draw against Olympic champion Monica Puig and it was a three set battle and Stosur even had a match point at 6-5 in a second set breaker. But out. It's now three years since she won a match in her home slam, and her overall record since 2012 reads 4-7. Ouch.
                      Last edited by Janik; 15-01-2018, 10:54.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Running draws


                        Men's Singles

                        Rafael Nadal Esp [1] vs Damir Dzumhur BiH [28]
                        Diego Schwartzman Arg [24] vs John Isner USA [16] Alexandr Dolgopolov Ukr
                        Pablo Carreno Busta Esp [10] vs Gilles Muller Lux [23]
                        Pablo Cuevas Uru [31] Ryan Harrison USA vs Marin Cilic Cro [6]

                        Grigor Dimitrov Bul [3] vs Andrey Rublev Rus [30]
                        Nick Kyrgios Aus [17] vs Jo-Wilfred Tsonga Fra [15]
                        Kevin Anderson RSa [11] Kyle Edmund GBr vs Lucas Pouille Fra [18] Nikoloz Basilashvili Geo
                        Phillipp Kohlschreiber Ger [27] Andreas Seppi Ita vs Jack Sock USA [8] Ivo Karlovic Cro


                        Dominic Thiem Aut [5] vs Adrian Mannarino Fra [26]
                        Roberto Bautista Agut Esp [20] Fernando Verdasco Esp Maximilian Marterer Ger vs Stan Wawrinka Sui [9] Tennys Sandgren USA
                        Novak Djokovic Srb [14] vs Albert Ramos Vinolas Esp [21]
                        Mikhail Zverev Ger [32] Chung Hyeon Kor vs Alexander Zverev Ger [4]

                        David Goffin Bel [7] Julien Benneteau Fra vs Fabio Fognini Ita [25]
                        Tomas Berdych Cze [19] vs Juan Martin del Potro Arg [12]
                        Sam Querrey USA [13] Marton Fucsovics Hun vs Milos Raonic Can [22] Nicolas Kicker Arg
                        Richard Gasquet Fra [29] vs Roger Federer Sui [2]


                        Women's Singles

                        Simona Halep Rou [1] vs Petra Kvitova Cze [27] Andrea Petkovic Ger Lauren Davis USA
                        Ashleigh Barty Aus [18] vs Elena Vesnina Rus [16] Naomi Osaka Jpn
                        Johanna Konta GBr [9] Bernarda Pera USA [LL] vs Barbora Strycova Cze [20]
                        Lucie Safarova Cze [29] vs Karolina Pliskova Cze [6]

                        Garbine Muguruza Esp [3] Hseih Su-wei Tpe vs Agnieszka Radwanska Pol [26]
                        Angelique Kerber Ger [21] vs Anastasija Sevastova Lat [14] Maria Sharapova Rus
                        Kristina Mldenovic Fra [11] Ana Bogdan |Rou vs Madison Keys USA [17]
                        Mirjana Lucic-Baroni Cro [28] Aliaksandra Sasnovich Blr vs Caroline Garcia Fra [8]


                        Venus Williams USA [5] Belinda Bencic Sui Luksika Kumkhum Tha [Q] vs Ekaterina Makarova Rus [31] Irina-Camelia Begu Rou Petra Martic Cro
                        Daria Gavrilova Aus [23] Elise Mertens Bel vs Julia Goerges Ger [12] Alize Cornet Fra
                        Sloane Stephens USA [13] Zhang Shuai Chn Denisa Allertova Cze [Q] vs Daria Kasatkina Rus [22] Magda Linette Pol
                        Shuai Peng Chn [25] Marta Kostyuk Ukr [Q] vs Elena Svitolina Ukr [4]

                        Jelena Ostapenko Lat [7] vs Anett Kontaveit Est [32]
                        Dominika Cibulkova Svk [24] Kaia Kanepi Est vs Coco Vandeweghe USA [10] Timea Babos Hun Carla Suarez Navarro Esp
                        Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova Rus [15] Kateryna Bondarenko Ukr vs Magdalena Rybarikova Svk [19]
                        Kiki Bertens Ned [30] vs Caroline Wozniacki Den [2]
                        Last edited by Janik; 18-01-2018, 17:54.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Going through the draws again, both Dominikia Cibulkova and Coco Vandeweghe had rotten draws, though by exiting immediately they haven't fully experienced them. Their little sector read like this in full:-

                          Cibulkova [24] vs Kanepi
                          Stosur vs Puig
                          Suarez Navarro vs Frech [Q]
                          Babos vs Vandeweghe [10]

                          We have:
                          Cibulkova - Aussie Open finalist, 2016 Tour Champion, former World top 5 player
                          Kanepi - six time Slam quarter-finalist, former top 20 player working her way back up after injury
                          Stosur - US Open champion, French Open finalist and former top 5 player, narrowly missed a seeding
                          Puig - current Olympic champion
                          Suarez Navarro - five time Slam former slam quarter-finalist and former top 10 player, narrowly missed a seeding
                          Frech - young qualifier finding herself in rather illustrious company
                          Babos - better known for doubles (twice a Wimbledon finalist in that) but also a sometime singles seed in slams
                          Vandeweghe - Semi-finalist here last year and also in the US, current Fed Cup champion (8 out of 8 in singles and doubles rubbers last season)

                          That is what you call a stacked section, given that only one player can possibly emerge from it into the second week. Whoever that turns out to be will really have earned her spot.


                          In other news, the longest match of the day has just ended after 4h16, Caspar Ruud serving to close things out 11-9 in the final set against Quentin Halys.
                          Last edited by Janik; 15-01-2018, 11:25.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Is the American failure due to the surface in Australia being slower, or was it simply that the US Open was a fluke?

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by Janik View Post

                              Kevin Anderson RSa [11] Kyle Edmund GBr vs Lucas Pouille Fra [18]
                              Phillipp Kohlschreiber Ger [27] vs Jack Sock USA [8]
                              Pouille's gone

                              Comment


                                #16
                                Indeed he has. But the match point happened four minutes after I last updated those draws, hence why it hasn't quite caught up yet. Real-time updates are hard when you are doing things manually...

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  It makes Edmund's eighth of the draw look decidedly promising mind you.

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Very true. My criteria for putting names in after a seed is eliminated is entirely subjective, basically players I think have something similar to the ousted seed's chances of winning in round 2. This can tend towards established player bias, of course. But that is the reason why Edmund is written in and Bemelmans, Nishioka and Sugita are not. That said, Dennis Istomin, who Edmund faces next, is arguably the second strongest player left in this section behind Kyle (remember he beat Djokovic last year on course to R4). Win that one, and a QF spot will begin to properly shimmer. Someone unexpected and unseeded is going to be there.

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      Nike appear to have received their normal shipment of pink dye, but have opted to use it on the boys clothes for once. Which is a change. Kyle Edmund said it was 'not his colour' but that what your sponsor demands... As a redhead, he is probably right.

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        Really bad looking fall/ankle twist for Halep at one set up. Even if she gets through this match, I suspect she'll struggle to get through many more rounds.

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          Seemed to affect Aiava more than it did Halep. Simona stopped running and instead just started pushing her opponent into the corners and waited for her to make mistakes. 7-6 (and she faced set points in the first) 6-1.

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            Just like at last year's French then. Where Simo came in with a twisted ankle, movement looked hampered in early rounds, and she made the final...

                                            Comment


                                              #23
                                              Crazy match between Kvitova and Petkovic, where Kvitova is serving for the match (again), but of course ESPN goes to the Federer match against Bedene.

                                              Comment


                                                #24
                                                Petkovic wins 10-8 in the third.

                                                Comment


                                                  #25
                                                  Much quieter night of seeded casualties (and American losses as well), with just Bautista Agut, M.Zverev and Raonic joining Kvitova in getting early flights home. Milos won't be beating Federer then, no Zverev vs Zverev in R3 and Bautista Agut's defeat was partly due to landing a tough draw in Verdasco.

                                                  Some potential for further shocks. Not Federer, he is two sets and a break up on Bedene and looking much, much too good for Aljaz. Nor Berdych, who dropped the second set to de Minaur in what looked a good match in advance, but has just won the third 6-0. But maybe Mladenovic, as she trails Bogdan by a set to love or A.Radwanska, who is into a decider against Kr.Pliskova (the lesser), which was again one that looked like it had potential. Aga is a break up in set three, though.

                                                  In Brit news, Heather Watson is a set down but a break up against Yulia Putinseva, who seemed to be in one of her more combustible moods in the 15 minutes I watched earlier.

                                                  Comment

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