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    #51
    Originally posted by E10 Rifle View Post
    The most financially incontinent league in English football is the Championship: anyone fancy a shot at arguing that we should make the top flight a closed shop?
    There is a cause and effect there, of course, which would be removed by making it a closed shop.

    Or you could do it as a semi-closed shop. Clubs can only be promoted to the top flight if deemed eligible for a licence at the start of the preceding season, which has been held without interruption through the promotion campaign. So only a club that manages to combine building a decent team with behaving in a financially responsible way could go up.

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      #52
      Originally posted by E10 Rifle View Post
      Clubs for whom relegation proved a springboard for a wholesale clear-out and revitalisation: Colchester, Exeter, Lincoln, Luton, hopefully and eventually Orient

      Clubs who are still alive, getting good gates and doing basically fine: Wrexham, Tranmere

      Clubs who've bobbed up and down between the divisions without it killing them: Barnet, Dagenham (until now), Cheltenham
      And, erm, Shrewsbury in that top row as well.

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        #53
        Originally posted by Patrick Thistle View Post
        I'm not sure if you're supporting or countering my point, there
        I was just trying to draw a parallel between mandated promotion from the National League to the Football League and mandated promotion from one step of the non-league pyramid to another, because the FA seem to think that taking the same approach to the subject across the whole of the National League System (i.e. from the Premier League to Step 7, which is scarcely more than park football) is appropriate.

        Towards the top end of the NLS, it seems reasonable to work on the basis that any member club of, say, the Championship agrees that if they win the division they are as a consequence obliged to take up a position in the Premier League the following season. That obligation is part and parcel of being in the Championship.

        Lower down the pyramid, there are clubs that actively do not want to be so obliged by their membership of a given league or division. For instance, it is more or less possible to win a Step 5 league with a committee of three old boys and a manager working with a bunch of his mates as the playing squad. Go into Step 4, however, and even ignoring the much wider geographical area covered by each division, a club is of necessity entering a world of business plans, revenue streams and formal contracting. Not all Step 5 want to and/or are able to get involved in that. The FA seem to be saying that clubs like that might want to think about their position within the National League System.

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          #54
          Originally posted by E10 Rifle View Post
          Clubs for whom relegation proved a springboard for a wholesale clear-out and revitalisation: Colchester, Exeter, Lincoln, Luton, hopefully and eventually Orient

          Clubs who are still alive, getting good gates and doing basically fine: Wrexham, Tranmere

          Clubs who've bobbed up and down between the divisions without it killing them: Barnet, Dagenham (until now), Cheltenham
          tbf, we nearly went bust in the conference but that was due to a Dean Saunders' free-spending and Geoff Moss' asset-stripping rather than anything to do with relegation.

          Often seems to be the case that the problem is parachute payments are used not to adjust to life in the Conference but to bankroll a tilt at the title. When the parachute payments end, those clubs still have the same cost-base that they had when they were in the football league.

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            #55
            Darlington were relegated twice. The first time they bounced back, 2nd time they were sunk by a White Elephant stadium.

            I can't recall if anyone else has gone out of the league twice.

            One hypothesis is that 1 up 1 down worked OK, but 2 by 2 with play-offs is dodger. OTOH playoffs maintain interest and crowds and are popular at some lower steps. I'm just not sure that jumping from 5th in the Conference to the FL in one go is a healthy leap.

            Parachute payments are dysfunctional but weren't they also a bribe to ensure that reluctant clubs voted for automatic relegation?

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              #56
              Originally posted by Satchmo Distel View Post
              Darlington were relegated twice. The first time they bounced back, 2nd time they were sunk by a White Elephant stadium.

              I can't recall if anyone else has gone out of the league twice.
              Lincoln City.

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                #57
                Halifax and Hereford dropped out twice. Both have since had to reform. Barnet have dropped out twice as well.

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                  #58
                  Sorry for derailing the thread

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                    #59
                    Originally posted by Satchmo Distel View Post
                    One hypothesis is that 1 up 1 down worked OK, but 2 by 2 with play-offs is dodger. OTOH playoffs maintain interest and crowds and are popular at some lower steps. I'm just not sure that jumping from 5th in the Conference to the FL in one go is a healthy leap.
                    I suppose the counter argument is that this stops clubs/owners chucking everything financially at attempting to grab the one promotion spot and falling apart - although having said that, I can't think of any occasions where that happened. Rushden & Diamonds did it to an extent - but they had the backing at the time to ensure it wasn't so much 'all or nothing', more 'all or all again next year'.

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                      #60
                      I can't recall if anyone else has gone out of the league twice.
                      Barnet. And likely to again this year. The problem here is bad ownership and management, and the leagues' inability to get a handle on that and regulate it properly. I don't think clubs should be forced to go up, but forcing them not to is not the answer.

                      Overall, promotion in and out of the Football League has been a positive thing, one of the few structural reforms of the past three decades that has generally helped smaller clubs, increasing interest and gates and rewarding well-run clubs.

                      And going back to its very first year, there are still very few matches I've ever attended that have had quite the astonishing, frenzied unforgettable atmosphere that Burnley v Orient in 1987 did.

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                        #61
                        I remain kind of shocked at the fact that Barnet pissing off to Edgware hasn't been treated with the opprobrium it deserved. So far as I'm aware, Underhill is still sitting there, rotting. Enfield may be three divisions below them, but at least the new ground is within spitting distance of the old one.

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                          #62
                          Originally posted by My Name Is Ian View Post
                          I remain kind of shocked at the fact that Barnet pissing off to Edgware hasn't been treated with the opprobrium it deserved.
                          It has in certain circles...

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                            #63
                            York could be the latest to join the clubs scuppered by throwing everything at doomed attempts to regain a lost league place. While there's no apparent immediate danger of financial collapse, the club has been running at astonishing losses over the last few years (among the biggest below League 1 level apparently), having had one of the biggest budgets in their respective divisions yet still being relegated from League 2 and Conference in the last 2 seasons. The club's chairman is throwing good money after bad, and now has his sights firmly set on the Supporters' Trust's 25% shareholding. The Trust has been a shambolic nonentity for the best part of the last 10 years, but interest has suddenly been rekindled by the chairman's actions, his hostility towards the Trust and the total lack of transparency around what his motives and future intentions are (smart money is on looking to sell up immediately after we move into the new stadium in 2019). Statements, counter-statements and accusations have been flying about in the local media.

                            At the Trust's AGM the other night (at which Andy Walsh and Malcolm Clarke spoke) it emerged that the chairman is now only communicating with the Trust through solicitors. The Trust made some kind of compromise offer regarding the shares which has been refused out of hand, and everyone's now pointing out that everything hinges on the existing valuation of Bootham Crescent, which is 10 years out of date, and the Trust have been told they'll have to pay for their own valuation if they want to know how much it's currently worth. It would appear that the chairman has now spaffed away so much money in the last few seasons on a procession of failing managers and over 100 mainly dreadful players, that he's now effectively in negative equity as regards the ground sale. This is despite benefiting from the biggest yet parachute payments from the EFL, which just further illustrates what an appalling businessman he is.

                            The Trust is attracting loads of new members in anticipation of a vote over whether or not to sell the 25% shareholding to the chairman. It would seem many are now swaying towards a 'no' vote in light of these recent relevations, despite what appear to be vague threats that the chairman may walk away if he doesn't get the shares or a figure of £250k which apparently the Trust should be investing as shareholders. Either way, it feels like we're progressing rapidly towards some kind of end game.

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                              #64
                              Yeah Barnet's move to miles-from-Barnet pisses me off too. Used to be an easy away trip from my neck of the woods. Now it's quicker to get to Ebbsfleet and Dover.

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                                #65
                                Originally posted by My Name Is Ian View Post
                                I remain kind of shocked at the fact that Barnet pissing off to Edgware hasn't been treated with the opprobrium it deserved. So far as I'm aware, Underhill is still sitting there, rotting. Enfield may be three divisions below them, but at least the new ground is within spitting distance of the old one.
                                Underhill is actually being demolished right now :

                                https://twitter.com/BigUpFootball2/status/959724349908488192

                                I think one of the reasons Barnet's move has gone a little under the radar is that most people don't really know where Barnet and Canons Park are, especially in relation to each other - I've lived in London for nearly forty years and have been to both grounds but I still don't have a clue.
                                Last edited by Ray de Galles; 07-02-2018, 12:34.

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                                  #66
                                  Originally posted by E10 Rifle View Post
                                  .

                                  Overall, promotion in and out of the Football League has been a positive thing, one of the few structural reforms of the past three decades that has generally helped smaller clubs, increasing interest and gates and rewarding well-run clubs.

                                  .
                                  Aaagh. This is what I mean. Sorry to pick on you E10 but that's received wisdom that is subject to the same correlation/causation caveat BLT threw at me.

                                  Saying it "has generally helped smaller clubs" only work if we ignore all the ones that went bust or are on the verge.

                                  A few clubs are now league clubs that weren't before. But in terms of maintaining sustainable league status, the success rate isn't much different to re-election days. And the cost has been mighty.

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                                    #67
                                    .... but you also have a correlation/causation issue. The clubs that have gone to the wall may well have gone bust with or without automatic promotion/relegation.

                                    There are undoubtedly a number of the clubs that have gone bust due to other issues (often poorly run). Are we really saying that Darlington or Hereford would have been fine if they hadn't dropped out of the league?

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                                      #68
                                      Or is that what BLT said already?

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                                        #69
                                        Originally posted by Patrick Thistle View Post


                                        Clubs who aren't much better prospects than the club they replaced: Morecambe, Crawley, Stevenage, Accrington
                                        ... and why does this matter at all?

                                        Not that I'm from Morecambe or anything .....

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                                          #70
                                          Originally posted by Grimmer View Post
                                          Are we really saying that Darlington or Hereford would have been fine if they hadn't dropped out of the league?
                                          Define "fine" (but probably not, no).

                                          My point about the other clubs is that we replaced one lot of mediocre perennial strugglers with teams that aren't much better on average.

                                          The correlation effect of clubs going out of the league then going bust is pretty high when we compare to the number of clubs inside the league set up. Basically lots versus none for 25 years. Is loss of league status the cause of club death? Well that's what we can't prove but it's an established trajectory now. Struggle -> lose league status -> go bust. We can ask how much it contributed.

                                          And the assertion that it's benefited non league clubs has no basis as far as I can see given how many achieved league status, couldn't stick it, fell back into non league and then collapsed. And the ones who died trying to get to the promised land.

                                          I know this view goes against the orthodoxy but generally is the football league better overall after 30 years of promotion/ relegation because of that change? I don't think the evidence amounts to much. Is non-league football better? Again, where's the evidence?

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                                            #71
                                            I was watching a LOT of non-league football in the middle of the 1980s, the stench of dry rot was probably even stronger than it was in the FL at the time. Grounds were literally decaying - I remember almost turning my ankle when a piece of terrace at Walthamstow Avenue crumbled under my feet - and crowds had been dropping and dropping for the previous twenty years. Two figure attendances at some clubs in the Isthmian League (then a division below the Gola League, as it was known then) were not that uncommon, and when Enfield won the Conference in 1986 crowds of much over 1,000 announced during matches would get appreciative oohs and ahs. I think their average home crowd that season - 1985/86 - was about 850, and that wasn't uncommonly low for the division. Nobody knew how the future was going to play out, but there was already panic at the enormous slump in attendances that came about during the first part of the decade and there was regular talk of a Super League for the biggest clubs, as well.

                                            I agree, certainly, that there should be tighter regulation to control the amount that clubs spend, but automatic promotion and relegation had to happen. It's likely that non-league football would have withered on the vine without it. My recollection is that the rush to professionalism in the fifth division was something of a surprise. After all, the financial benefits of going up weren't enormous at the time and making ground-grading - as Stevenage, Macclesfield Town and Kidderminster Harriers would find out during the following decade - would be expensive and could be complicated by the byzantine rules relating to it. It was about the "prestige" of being a FL club. I personally feel that a lot of clubs, both old D4 clubs and non-league clubs, would have gone to the wall had it not been brought in, though.

                                            True enough, crowds increased across the board after bottoming out during the 1985/86 season after Bradford and Heysel (This is a fascinating insight into how far we've come since 1986), but this list is the one that shows that the trends only increased slowly for a few years after 1986. This season so far, twenty National League clubs have a higher attendance than the lowest in Division 4 in 1986. That's an extraordinary statistic.

                                            We also know that non-league football is way, way, way more expensive to attend than it was thirty years ago. So, with much bigger crowds, more matches (the Conference didn't expand from 22 to 24 clubs until the 2006/07 season) considerably more commercial revenue and probably even more television money, it becomes increasingly difficult for me to understand how Dagenham can be losing £100,000 per month, even more so how on earth that gap is going to be plugged in a manner that doesn't resemble Peter & the dyke.
                                            Last edited by My Name Is Ian; 07-02-2018, 17:15.

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                                              #72
                                              As an aside, Bristol City went bust in 1982, Wolves and Middlesbrough both did in 1986. The rules - they were just allowed to set up new companies and carry on as if nothing had happened - were different then.

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                                                #73
                                                Also the promotion to and then ultimately losing of league status isn't a bad thing. In other divisions we don't see it as weird when promoted clubs struggle. It's quite natural that some will eventually drift back down a division or two.

                                                I feel really strongly about this for all the same reasons why I wouldn't want a Premier League closed shop. Dead rubber fixtures are the last thing Div 4 clubs need and an artificial ceiling that stops a story as romantic as, say, Accrington's just feels dull. Change is good.

                                                Even if it means Salford in the 92.

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                                                  #74
                                                  It's also hard to go bust in the league set when a symptom of struggling is often underperformance that leads to relegation.

                                                  Dropping out of the league may well be a symptom not the cause of the going bust.

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                                                    #75
                                                    Is Accrington's story romantic? They were the milk advert team I guess.

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