Return of the Lira? Italian general election, 2018

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

That doesn't mean that they understand how it works, beyond seeing it as a conspiracy against them. I don't think it would be possible to remain living in italy if you understood how it all works. You'd just get the fuck out of there.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I think you're probably right, if the public don't get the rather important concept of interest.

[ursus arctos]

Percentage of the Italian population over 60 (blue) vs the percentage that is under 30 (red)

[Tubby Isaacs]

Good God. Don't graphs like that where you see lines coming together in recent years have "people under 18" or similar?

Are those pension rises definitely happening?

[Pérou Flaquettes]

Good God. Don't graphs like that where you see lines coming together in recent years have "people under 18" or similar?

Are those pension rises definitely happening?

Yep, Italy’s positively old.

https://www.onetouchfootball.com/sho...=1#post1400938

It's an old country too, very low birth rate for a generation or so now, third oldest country in the world, all of which explains a lot politically. (51 million registered voters for a population of 60m - it was only 47m in 2013, I didn't understand why such a difference so I dug around a bit and found this.)

[ursus arctos]

The coalition is now daring the EU to stop them from implementing the budget (including the pension increases).

[ursus arctos]

The EU has called their bluff and rejected the budget

The European Commission has formally rejected Italy’s draft budget, an unprecedented step for eurozone fiscal authorities that will force Rome’s populist government to rein in its spending plans or face fines from Brussels.

The commission voted to request changes to the spending plans for 2019, which smash through previously agreed deficit targets.

Valdis Dombrovskis, the commission vice-president responsible for the euro, said that Brussels had “no alternative” than to request changes to draft budget plans submitted by Italy earlier this month, saying they breached previous commitments the country had made to reduce its deficit and debt levels.

Speaking in Strasbourg, Mr Dombrovskis said that explanations sent by Italy earlier this week were “not convincing” and did not “change our earlier conclusions of a particularly serious non-compliance”.

The move marks the first time that Brussels has requested changes to a country’s spending plans. It means Rome has three weeks to either make changes or ignore the commission’s warnings.

If Italy refuses to budge, Brussels’ next step would be to open an “excessive deficit procedure” that could end with financial sanctions in 2019.

[Flynnie]

I read the letter from the Commission in full. Am I correct in saying their objections are basically 1) you guys have no real long-term plan to cut the deficit, since as Berba noted, it's mostly bungs to pensioners and tax cuts for the wealthy and 2) what plan you have is based on mumbo-jumbo, since it uses a forecast that hasn't been vetted by the Italian version of the CBO/OBR?

It seems to have popped up somewhere on the UK left as a mate is discussing it as a sovereignty/big bad EU issue, whereas I read it as "If you guys had a plan to invest in infrastructure, cut the deficit eventually, based on real math, y'all would be OK".

[ursus arctos]

Yes, that's right.

[Ginger Yellow]

M5S MEP Marco Valli joins the ranks of politicians with made up degrees. Also, the Commission has formally rejected Italy's budget plan, saying it will lead to a breach of the 3% deficit limit in 2020.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

A very dear friend of mine is moving back there permanently in December for health reasons. How worried should I be for them? Honest question.

I suppose like virtually everywhere else either they have enough money/health insurance to be OK, or it's a bit of the luck of the draw. I hope they're OK.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Well I'd take that as a good sign, from the point of view of your worries on the topic.

[ursus arctos]

Berba identifies the key issues as usual.

I would suggest keeping a good portion of their funds outside of the country, given the parlous state of Italian banks and the remote (but very high impact) nightmare scenario evoked by the thread title.

[Ginger Yellow]

The Commission has proposed an excessive deficit procedure for Italy.

[ursus arctos]

And lo spread falls in response.

Having hit 330 yesterday, it is now down to a still very unhealthy 312.

Told that the government had received the official notification from the Commission, Salvini said that he was waiting for the one from Father Christmas.

[Diable Rouge]

Interestingly, the latest Eurobarometer survey shows both Italy and Greece wanting to retain the euro by fairly wide margins.

[Ginger Yellow]

I dread to think what lo spread would be if it wasn't in the euro.

[ursus arctos]

Easily over 500 (Greece is around 430), but much less than Turkey’s 1600 plus.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

How long until Italy are invited to hold a referendum on leaving the European union?

[ursus arctos]

Bringing back the Lira will come first.

[Gangster Octopus]

If they were to bring back the Lira, would they start it at something like 1:1 with the Euro, or would it be back to 2000:1 (or whatever it was)?

[ursus arctos]

Given that the constituency for it skews quite elderly, I would expect it to be set at around 2000 to 1. A certain population quite misses being millionaires.

[Ginger Yellow]

They probably shouldn't have bought all that bank sub debt, then.

[ursus arctos]

I don't see a referendum as at all imminent.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

it was the invitation I was thinking more about. I can see what's in EU membership for Italy, but at this point it's difficult to see what is in it for the EU.