Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Expected goals

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

    #26
    Originally posted by Antepli Ejderha View Post
    Chapeau to you sir, you are an OTF legend.
    You mistakenly used a singular, there.

    Comment


      #27
      I never did see Fantasy Football League, though my sense was always that I would have enjoyed it.

      Clips of overseas programmes were much harder to come by during its heyday.

      Comment


        #28
        As with anything, visual aids work a wonder:

        http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/40699431

        Comment


          #29
          I previously subscribed to EIM's opinion, but over the weekend something hit me and I got curious about what the xG in Argentine games would be like (it's not a stat that gets talked about here, yet), so I started reading around a bit about how it's calculated, and so on. Unfortunately we're already ten weeks into a season with 14 matches per weekend, so my attempts to use WhoScored? to get a spreadsheet of where each team was taking shots and scoring goals from rapidly got really fucking boring and hard to keep track of.

          It strikes me as a stat that's going to be useful for coaches and tacticians, and that doesn't do a lot apart from sate curiosity on the part of spectators. So, far more useful than possession. Instances like the Juventus one from last season also suggest it could be useful for gamblers.

          Unless they go on about xG non-stop on the odd episode I don't get around to downloading, I fail to see how MOTD's use of the stat would affect any viewer's enjoyment of the show one way or the other. It's just an extra few seconds of a graphic that gets put up during the manager interviews.

          Comment


            #30
            I might add: it's potentially useful for people who write about football as well, if they can work out how to use the information as part of more interesting articles than, 'Why xG Shows Manchester City Will Win The League This Season'. Although the fact it works for those articles as well, and people still click on them, means that's probably not a development in football writing that will come along especially quickly. Another obstacle to clear is the fact that a lot of analytics people can't write very well.

            Comment


              #31
              Arsenal still the xG Champions.

              Comment


                #32
                This sentence might make EIM hunt me down and kill me, but... teams over/unders on actual goals against seasonal xG would be an interesting statistic. I'm guessing that Arsenal would be waay under. Although that only tells us what we already know - that they can plain pretty Football but are budgie-hearted.

                Comment


                  #33
                  that's nonsense. I was at the game. De Gea was exceptional. 14 saves. 33 shots. (and two penalties not given) nothing budgie hearted. defensive errors certainly. But geese at least. not budgies

                  Comment


                    #34
                    arsenal aren't budgie hearted. They're just not very well organized, either with or without the ball. It just means they're not very controlled in situations like that, they have good players, and they've all been playing together for a long time, but essentially they are playing off the cuff football to a very high level, but that often doesn't work very well against top half teams. It's basically the same story with arsenal for over a decade now. . They didn't do anything with their extra man, and when they did create chances, they hit them pretty much right at De Gea.

                    Comment


                      #35
                      that's really not true. there were at least 5 outstanding saves. a clear cut penalty is a reasonable thing to create with an extra man

                      Comment


                        #36
                        I reckon that by 2025 some boffin from the venture science of looking at football numbers will have sued somebody because a team didn't score the expected amount of goals.

                        Comment


                          #37
                          "Mate, Mate, Mate. It's not my fault he scored in the 83th minute instead of the 9th minute. He's a proper football man at heart and didn't know that most of his goals occur in the 8.4-11.7 minute window within the hidden trapezium of max. goal scoritude. Stats don't lie mate."
                          Last edited by Kowalski; 03-12-2017, 00:39.

                          Comment


                            #38
                            Genuine LOL at scoritude. Well played, Kowalski.

                            Comment


                              #39
                              Originally posted by Kowalski View Post
                              I reckon that by 2025 some boffin from the venture science of looking at football numbers will have sued somebody because a team didn't score the expected amount of goals.
                              This sort of opinion about the people behind analytics is why the biggest part of the problem with expected goals, really, is the name. My reading last weekend was pretty cursory, but it threw up at least two authors who like the stat without particularly liking what it's called.

                              Comment


                                #40
                                None of the analytics types I know are particularly fond of the name.

                                At the same type, it has bneen hard for a consensus to form around an alternative.

                                Comment


                                  #41
                                  I may be wrong, but I think upthread that ursus and ae are talking about different people. Ae is talking about statto from fantasy football and ursus is talking about statto99, of this parish. To pile on even more confusion, the reason this was raised was because kev was often known as 'statto' by his xpert eleven compadres. He even used a photo of statto from fantasy football as his avatar.

                                  Comment


                                    #42
                                    Statto from Fantasy Football is a Manchester United fan, isn't he? I think he sits near my mate at Old Trafford.

                                    Comment


                                      #43
                                      Yes. And though employed as a betting tipster, he was once made bankrupt by a gambling debt.

                                      Original claim to fame is he brought out a chair for Chris Tavare to sit on in protest at his slow play.

                                      Comment


                                        #44
                                        A quick google tells me that although he was made bankrupt in 2010, he invested early in Optastats, as you might imagine, so is doing pretty well. And yes, he is a season ticket holder at Old Trafford, with many photos of him sitting immediately behind the home dugout. Finally, his dad is a famous conductor.

                                        Comment


                                          #45
                                          It's like looking at a painting and wondering what the hex colour codes are.
                                          Perfect.

                                          Comment


                                            #46
                                            Originally posted by TonTon View Post
                                            Perfect.
                                            The more pertinent point being that there's no reason at all why someone can't enjoy the game both for the more emotional and rational sides. These stats are trying to enable people to understand the game at a different level - no problem if people don't want to do that though (that's up to them and I can see why people wouldn't). I think certain people (the Jeff Stelling types, not necessarily anyone here) perhaps feel threatened that perhaps in 15-20 years they won't be able to come out with their usual crap narratives without being occasionally queried....

                                            Comment


                                              #47
                                              Originally posted by Jon View Post
                                              A quick google tells me that although he was made bankrupt in 2010, he invested early in Optastats, as you might imagine, so is doing pretty well. And yes, he is a season ticket holder at Old Trafford, with many photos of him sitting immediately behind the home dugout. Finally, his dad is a famous conductor.
                                              Bus?

                                              Comment


                                                #48
                                                Originally posted by MrLeam View Post
                                                The more pertinent point being that there's no reason at all why someone can't enjoy the game both for the more emotional and rational sides. These stats are trying to enable people to understand the game at a different level - no problem if people don't want to do that though (that's up to them and I can see why people wouldn't). I think certain people (the Jeff Stelling types, not necessarily anyone here) perhaps feel threatened that perhaps in 15-20 years they won't be able to come out with their usual crap narratives without being occasionally queried....
                                                Tbh, I'm bored with football already, so this brave new world of yours where people wank on about xg over a pint is something you're entirely welcome to. I'm sad that football is dead and buried, but I and others tried as hard as we could to keep it going. And now it's time to stop.

                                                Comment


                                                  #49
                                                  Is there an Expected Misses stat for Saido Berahino? Boom-fucking-tish!

                                                  I'm with EIM and TonTon. It's just useless job creation. How did the game survive 150 years without Expected fucking Goals stats?

                                                  Comment


                                                    #50
                                                    Originally posted by imp View Post
                                                    Is there an Expected Misses stat for Saido Berahino? Boom-fucking-tish!

                                                    I'm with EIM and TonTon. It's just useless job creation. How did the game survive 150 years without Expected fucking Goals stats?
                                                    Probably because some people want to understand the game on a different level. Not necessarily a better level but one that shouldn't be seen as antagonistic with enjoying the game for "its own sake". I'm slightly unsure here as to why people are getting riled about it?

                                                    Comment

                                                    Working...
                                                    X