Let's have a look at what the World Cup qualification would have brought us if the 2018 version would allow as many teams as the 2026 version, shall we? Underlined teams are those that would qualify under 2026 rules, but currently do not occupy a direct qualification spot for 2018; some of those will still qualify through playoffs.
AFC (8 spots instead of 4.5)
The top four from both third-round groups would qualify, so we would have:
Iran, Japan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Australia, Uzbekistan, United Arab Emirates
The additional teams are all a bit meh. Noteworthy is that even with this expansion, Qatar still would need to double their points total to qualify. China, on the other hand, is very close to qualification.
CAF (9 spots instead of 5)
Currently, all third-round group winners qualify. I'll add all but one second-placed team to that list, to (rather arbitrarily) get:
Tunisia, Nigeria, Morocco, Senegal, Egypt, DR Congo, Zambia, Ivory Coast, Uganda
Zambia could still be overtaken by Cameroon, and Uganda narrowly edges out Ghana for a spot. I'd say there's enough quality here to justify the expansion.
CONCACAF (6 spots instead of 3.5)
I'm sad that we no longer need the hex, whose teams will now simply all qualify:
Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama, Honduras, USA, Trinidad & Tobago
I doubt whether we'll see a repeat of the hilarity of T&T squeezing a point out of the Swedes. Not sure this expansion is merited.
CONMEBOL (6 spots instead of 4.5)
Straightforward story here, although the potential for top teams having already qualified with several games to spare and hence throwing games might pollute the procedure a bit more. Anyhoo:
Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina, Colombia, Peru, Chile
Those extra teams are very welcome at the World Cup, and we could have one or two more qualifiers from this zone (which, admittedly, would make the qualification procedure weird).
OFC (1 spot instead of 0.5)
No more playoffs required!
New Zealand
I guess giving a full spot to OFC is fair enough.
UEFA (16 spots instead of 13)
The nine group winners qualify, as do the three best runners-up. The six worst runners-up play play-offs to determine the final three* spots. Hence:
France, Portugal, Germany, Serbia, Poland, England, Spain, Belgium, Iceland, Switzerland, Italy, Denmark, Croatia, Sweden, Northern Ireland
There aren't that many extra spots here, which I also guess is fair enough.
*spot 16 is taken by the hosts.
Intercontinental Playoff Tournament (2 spots instead of 0)
The best non-qualifying country per continent would qualify for this tournament, from which two will qualify. So we'll see a tournament between:
China, Burkina Faso, Guatemala, Paraguay, Solomon Islands, Greece
If only they would play this as the hex that is now sorely missing from CONCACAF, this would be fascinating. I expect few problems for Paraguay here, and Greece would probably also squeeze through.
I think it's highly doubtful whether this tournament would be better to watch compared to the one we're getting (I, for one, won't be staying up to watch Uzbekistan-Chile or Uganda-Honduras), though the additionally qualifying teams from CAF, CONMEBOL, and OFC are quite welcome.
AFC (8 spots instead of 4.5)
The top four from both third-round groups would qualify, so we would have:
Iran, Japan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Australia, Uzbekistan, United Arab Emirates
The additional teams are all a bit meh. Noteworthy is that even with this expansion, Qatar still would need to double their points total to qualify. China, on the other hand, is very close to qualification.
CAF (9 spots instead of 5)
Currently, all third-round group winners qualify. I'll add all but one second-placed team to that list, to (rather arbitrarily) get:
Tunisia, Nigeria, Morocco, Senegal, Egypt, DR Congo, Zambia, Ivory Coast, Uganda
Zambia could still be overtaken by Cameroon, and Uganda narrowly edges out Ghana for a spot. I'd say there's enough quality here to justify the expansion.
CONCACAF (6 spots instead of 3.5)
I'm sad that we no longer need the hex, whose teams will now simply all qualify:
Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama, Honduras, USA, Trinidad & Tobago
I doubt whether we'll see a repeat of the hilarity of T&T squeezing a point out of the Swedes. Not sure this expansion is merited.
CONMEBOL (6 spots instead of 4.5)
Straightforward story here, although the potential for top teams having already qualified with several games to spare and hence throwing games might pollute the procedure a bit more. Anyhoo:
Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina, Colombia, Peru, Chile
Those extra teams are very welcome at the World Cup, and we could have one or two more qualifiers from this zone (which, admittedly, would make the qualification procedure weird).
OFC (1 spot instead of 0.5)
No more playoffs required!
New Zealand
I guess giving a full spot to OFC is fair enough.
UEFA (16 spots instead of 13)
The nine group winners qualify, as do the three best runners-up. The six worst runners-up play play-offs to determine the final three* spots. Hence:
France, Portugal, Germany, Serbia, Poland, England, Spain, Belgium, Iceland, Switzerland, Italy, Denmark, Croatia, Sweden, Northern Ireland
There aren't that many extra spots here, which I also guess is fair enough.
*spot 16 is taken by the hosts.
Intercontinental Playoff Tournament (2 spots instead of 0)
The best non-qualifying country per continent would qualify for this tournament, from which two will qualify. So we'll see a tournament between:
China, Burkina Faso, Guatemala, Paraguay, Solomon Islands, Greece
If only they would play this as the hex that is now sorely missing from CONCACAF, this would be fascinating. I expect few problems for Paraguay here, and Greece would probably also squeeze through.
I think it's highly doubtful whether this tournament would be better to watch compared to the one we're getting (I, for one, won't be staying up to watch Uzbekistan-Chile or Uganda-Honduras), though the additionally qualifying teams from CAF, CONMEBOL, and OFC are quite welcome.
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