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World Cup qualification: if 2018 were 2026

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    World Cup qualification: if 2018 were 2026

    Let's have a look at what the World Cup qualification would have brought us if the 2018 version would allow as many teams as the 2026 version, shall we? Underlined teams are those that would qualify under 2026 rules, but currently do not occupy a direct qualification spot for 2018; some of those will still qualify through playoffs.

    AFC (8 spots instead of 4.5)
    The top four from both third-round groups would qualify, so we would have:
    Iran, Japan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Australia, Uzbekistan, United Arab Emirates
    The additional teams are all a bit meh. Noteworthy is that even with this expansion, Qatar still would need to double their points total to qualify. China, on the other hand, is very close to qualification.

    CAF (9 spots instead of 5)
    Currently, all third-round group winners qualify. I'll add all but one second-placed team to that list, to (rather arbitrarily) get:
    Tunisia, Nigeria, Morocco, Senegal, Egypt, DR Congo, Zambia, Ivory Coast, Uganda
    Zambia could still be overtaken by Cameroon, and Uganda narrowly edges out Ghana for a spot. I'd say there's enough quality here to justify the expansion.

    CONCACAF (6 spots instead of 3.5)
    I'm sad that we no longer need the hex, whose teams will now simply all qualify:
    Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama, Honduras, USA, Trinidad & Tobago
    I doubt whether we'll see a repeat of the hilarity of T&T squeezing a point out of the Swedes. Not sure this expansion is merited.

    CONMEBOL (6 spots instead of 4.5)
    Straightforward story here, although the potential for top teams having already qualified with several games to spare and hence throwing games might pollute the procedure a bit more. Anyhoo:
    Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina, Colombia, Peru, Chile
    Those extra teams are very welcome at the World Cup, and we could have one or two more qualifiers from this zone (which, admittedly, would make the qualification procedure weird).

    OFC (1 spot instead of 0.5)
    No more playoffs required!
    New Zealand
    I guess giving a full spot to OFC is fair enough.

    UEFA (16 spots instead of 13)
    The nine group winners qualify, as do the three best runners-up. The six worst runners-up play play-offs to determine the final three* spots. Hence:
    France, Portugal, Germany, Serbia, Poland, England, Spain, Belgium, Iceland, Switzerland, Italy, Denmark, Croatia, Sweden, Northern Ireland
    There aren't that many extra spots here, which I also guess is fair enough.
    *spot 16 is taken by the hosts.

    Intercontinental Playoff Tournament (2 spots instead of 0)
    The best non-qualifying country per continent would qualify for this tournament, from which two will qualify. So we'll see a tournament between:
    China, Burkina Faso, Guatemala, Paraguay, Solomon Islands, Greece
    If only they would play this as the hex that is now sorely missing from CONCACAF, this would be fascinating. I expect few problems for Paraguay here, and Greece would probably also squeeze through.

    I think it's highly doubtful whether this tournament would be better to watch compared to the one we're getting (I, for one, won't be staying up to watch Uzbekistan-Chile or Uganda-Honduras), though the additionally qualifying teams from CAF, CONMEBOL, and OFC are quite welcome.

    #2
    Groups of three with two qualifying. Wake me up when the knock-out rounds start. Only entertainment might be watching how many devious ways teams can play out a result that is convenient to both.

    Many of the teams in the third tier of 12 will either park the bus or get massacred, e.g. Uzbekistan, UAE. That already happens but usually just to 2 or 3 teams per tournament not 8 or 9.

    Another problem is that pots of 16 are too big so one group might be 1, 32, 48 and another 2, 17, 33, which then skews the next round.

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      #3
      Uganda-Honduras or Uzbekistan-Chile would be infinitely more interesting than Brazil-the lowest seed and Germany-the lowest seed. It's the mismatches with the best and worst teams that are the dullest games, not the sort of games mentioned, for me Clive.

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        #4
        I'd stay up for Uzbekistan vs Chile. I clearly wouldn't tell my work colleagues the next day. But I'd certainly do it.

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          #5
          Originally posted by Kryvbas Gripper Rih View Post
          Uganda-Honduras or Uzbekistan-Chile would be infinitely more interesting than Brazil-the lowest seed and Germany-the lowest seed. It's the mismatches with the best and worst teams that are the dullest games, not the sort of games mentioned, for me Clive.
          And they would effectively be knock-outs with the team that plays the top seed first needing the win desperately. A draw would mean that if one of those teams plays the top seed last, they just do a nod and a wink to concede fewer goals than the other team did.

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            #6
            Originally posted by Kryvbas Gripper Rih View Post
            Uganda-Honduras or Uzbekistan-Chile would be infinitely more interesting than Brazil-the lowest seed and Germany-the lowest seed. It's the mismatches with the best and worst teams that are the dullest games, not the sort of games mentioned, for me Clive.
            Fair enough, however it's not so easy to predict where those mismatches would occur exactly. Look at Germany's group in 2014. The one blowout score there was not against the opponents that you would have expected.

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              #7
              And when Hungary beat El Salvador 10-1, Hungary did not even progress from the group.

              But the hammerings I recall from recent WC and Euros are things like West Germany v Saudi Arabia, Spain v various smallfry, Brazil's totally pointless stroll against North Korea. Then there was that Confederations Cup calamity with some Oceania side.

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                #8
                You mean Tahiti and yes, the hammerings were a bit painful to watch but they were reigning OFC champions so had every right to be there.

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                  #9
                  Originally posted by Satchmo Distel View Post
                  Brazil's totally pointless stroll against North Korea.
                  The game that ended in 2-1? 11v11 knows of only one time that these two countries played each other.

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                    #10
                    Fiji (men) at the last Olympics: 1-5, 0-8, 0-10.

                    NZ had a paperwork snafu and missed out, so Oceania's natural order was turned over. As were Fiji.

                    Since their rugby team was winning glory at the same games, and returned home as heroes, it's hard to see how the "football family" benefits from this nonsense. Boxes are ticked at FIFA, that's all.

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                      #11
                      Africa needs more places. Cameroon, Algeria and Nigeria all ended up in the same group together. And only one country can progress. Bah.

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                        #12
                        This is going to be such shit, isn't it? And it will probably happen here.

                        If that's the case, though, do the US and Canada both get automatic spots? How does that influence who else has a chance?

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                          #13
                          I'd imagine so, Japan and S. Korea did. (Are Mexico out of this multi-host arrangement now?)

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                            #14
                            The Panini album for 2026 will be fucking huge.

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                              #15
                              No, Mexico are still in the bid, and the automatic spot issue has yet to be determined (though CONCACAF will have six places, with any automatic slots counting against that number).

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                                #16
                                There will be almost no point holding qualifiers for some zones. CONCACAF, for example: ten matches just to eliminate T&T?

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                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Wouter D View Post
                                  Fair enough, however it's not so easy to predict where those mismatches would occur exactly. Look at Germany's group in 2014. The one blowout score there was not against the opponents that you would have expected.
                                  And the biggest Germany victory of that World Cup overall certainly bloody wasn't.

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                                    #18
                                    The CONMEBOL qualifiers will be rendered almost totally pointless by this. Great, it means Venezuela and Bolivia don't have to improve by as much from their current level to get there, and I'd love to see Venezuela especially manage to do so - but allowing in six out of ten nations in the confederation? Proportionately speaking, it's as ridiculous as the groups of three with only one going out that will be taking place at the actual tournament.

                                    Combined with the fact that the expansion is likely to coincide with the tournament being hosted by three CONCACAF sides, and the one after that might very well (especially if FIFA decide to pretend to have some romance in their souls for once) be hosted by three CONMEBOL sides (Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay have announced a joint bid, for the benefit of anyone who's not aware, with the idea being to bring the centennial final back to the Estadio Centenario), the sensible thing to do might be to finally combine qualifying for the whole of the Americas. I've said before on the continental club and WCQ threads that I don't think this would work for the Libertadores/Sudamericana at all, but for the international game I'd love to see it. And it'd only get more fun when, for 2034, we suddenly had the States, Mexico, Argentina and Uruguay all involved in it at once. (No offence, Canada or Paraguay.)

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