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Ah, Schulz - German general election, 2017

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    #51
    Every fecking time. In every country. Apparently the people of Dresden are especially bad because during the Cold War they couldn't receive any western broadcasts due to being in a valley. My colleague from Rostock said Dresden was often referred to as "the valley of the ignorant".

    Just spent a few minutes tearing some Nordic Resistance Movement stickers off rubbish bins in my neighbourhood.

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      #52
      ah, thanks ursus. So I was wrong about the youngsters. Peak AfD voting is in the age 35-44 bracket (youngsters to me of course). The oldies and the really young are the joint least supportive of the AfD.

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        #53
        What Brian notes is indeed a remarkably consistent pattern on both sides of the Atlantic these days.

        EEG, I found that age breakdown somewhat troubling, as it doesn't appear that the Grim Reaper will be claiming a disproportional number of AfD voters anytime soon.

        That said, it has been very difficult for protest parties to maintain their momentum in Germany, and both Petry's defection and the widespread protests at their ascent to the Bundestag are strong indications that the road for them will not be at all smooth.

        I don't think it was at all a coincidence that Borussia Dortmund posted this anti-Nazi clip yesterday.
        Last edited by ursus arctos; 25-09-2017, 20:23.

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          #54
          Originally posted by The Awesome Berbaslug!!! View Post
          erm real wage growth in Germany was 1.9% in 2014, 2.4% in 2015, and 1.8% in 2016. To put that in context, That 2.4% in 2015 is the largest increase in real wages since the beginning of german statistics, and was largely as a result in the introduction of a federal minimum wage of 8.50, ramming up wages at the lower end, Real wages in germany are rising as quickly as at any time in their history, particularly for people at the lower end of the income distribution. So whatever it is, it's not that.
          8.50 an hour in monthly wage is 1360 before tax.

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            #55
            Originally posted by G-Man View Post
            The AfD's success is depressing, but I predict they will fade away again, as it often is with protest movements. They were internally so divided even before the election; the taste of power will do the rest.
            Frauke Petry -- a moderate fucking Nazi -- is out of the blocks early to prove me right. The last protest movement that survived were the Greens, but their quality of leadership was rather good, and their platform rather more persuasive than that of the AfD.

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              #56
              AfD shithouse on Newsnight banging on about Sharia Law and complaining about illegal immigrants. They're not illegal if you let them in.

              Fucking arsehole.

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                #57
                The problem is, though, that the same factors are at play with the AfD as with SF in the Republic - targeting areas of social deprivation, and convincing them that nationalism and dubious economics will act as a panacea. Until income in the former GDR reaches a par with the Western Länder, both they and die Linke will be a permanent Bundestag presence.

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                  #58
                  well it kind of makes sense. People who live in areas with lots of immigrants tend to discover that they're just ordinary people, looking to make a better life for themselves, their families and their community. I wonder how many people who've had a discussion with a syrian refugee, or have met one personally voted for the AFD

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                    #59
                    Yes, say what you will about Ireland, but the fact that immigration has been widely spread throughout the country has both encouraged newcomers to integrate and locals to get accustomed, as the dual citizenship stats show.

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                      #60
                      Originally posted by antoine polus View Post
                      8.50 an hour in monthly wage is 1360 before tax.
                      Ok, but that's still higher than it was three years ago. You can't say that the economy is booming, but employees aren't feeling the benefit, if real wages are rising as quickly as they have ever done in Germany, and are rising fastest of all at the bottom end of the distribution. It's kind of like you can't really say that people aren't benefiting from the recovery in ireland, when the number of people in employment, real wages, and disposable income are all growing faster than virtually everywhere else on earth.

                      Also, I don't know what €17680 a year means in germany, what tax you have to pay, what benefits you receive, what your rental costs are, and how many people are on these wages.

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                        #61
                        Originally posted by The Awesome Berbaslug!!! View Post
                        You can't say that the economy is booming, but employees aren't feeling the benefit,


                        About ten years ago I turned down a job in Germany because they were offering just shy of 1000 euros a month before tax. Apparently that was fairly acceptable for new graduates.

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                          #62
                          That graph just says that during the years of the financial crisis, (2008-2013) the proportion of the german population who were below 60% of the median income rose by about 1%. It's very difficult to know really what to make of that, as by itself it seems like a small effect given what happened. It falls in line with the rise in real wages in 2014, but rises in the face of a really large real wage increase, and the introduction of a federal minimum wage. It might have something to do with taking in half a million refugees in 2015.

                          Sure German wages aren't great compared with some other countries, but that's just the way they've structured their economy over a very long period of time. It's structured to keep their industry as competitive as possible by linking wages to productivity growth, and about avoiding inflation, and keeping down the cost of living. There are tradeoffs going with that

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                            #63
                            Prices in Germany are also lower than in many other European countries. It used to be that Italy's prices were much lower than Germany's; now it's reversed.

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                              #64
                              Yeah. Germany isn't set up to grow explosively in the good times. It's set up so global downturns more or less bounce off it. Things slow down a bit, and then the process of steady incremental inprovement begins again. Germany didn't just sit in a dark room thinking about the lessons of the 1932-45 period. They had a good hard think about the 14 years before that as well.

                              I would really like Ireland to do the same about the period of time between 1996 and 2008. It would do us a lot of good.

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                                #65
                                German wages aren't linked to productivity at all. If they were then they would be much higher.

                                What they are doing is racing the other eurozone countries to the bottom.

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                                  #66
                                  The FDP have walked out of the “last ditch” coalition discussions, thereby putting the possibility of new elections back on the front pages

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                                    #67
                                    Constitutionally new elections are unlikely. It would require a vote of no confidence, or for the majority of MPs to vote against Merkel when they have to elect the chancellor. And nobody is going to risk pissing off the electorate by doing that to Mutti.

                                    Most likely, the CDU will form a minority government, perhaps taking their new best Green friends on board.

                                    Meanwhile everybody is throwing dirt at the others. The SPD is slamming the FDP's Lindner for "showboating". The Green's Trittin slams the SPD for their refusal to go against their mandate and join a coalition for the sake of stability ("Politikvereigerung" -- what a great term). The CDU is obviously very upset too. And the Linke are gloating (I imagine so are the Nazis).

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                                      #68
                                      I see the BBC was insisting on referring to the FDP as "centrist" this morning, even though they've been nothing of the sort for years.

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                                        #69
                                        Europe Elects projection based on a poll from yesterday:

                                        CDU/CSU 243 (-3)
                                        SPD 174 (+21)
                                        AfD 129 (+35)
                                        FPD 99 (+18)
                                        Grüne 89 (+22)
                                        Linke 79 (+10)

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                                          #70
                                          They've added 103 seats?

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                                            #71
                                            Originally posted by ad hoc View Post
                                            They've added 103 seats?
                                            I'm bemused also, but they're the figures that were given. Merkel has reportedly said she would prefer new elections to a minority government, so Phase 2 of Brexit would be further delayed in that event.

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                                              #72
                                              Phase 2 ain't happening this year no matter what happens in Germany.

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                                                #73
                                                2013 - 631 seats

                                                2017 - 709 seats

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                                                  #74
                                                  The FDP now says they were humiliated by Merkel's jones for the Greens, and by the Greens with their two leaders constantly changing course. President Steinmeier (SPD) is meeting with the party leaders to see what's what - he's the one who'll eventually have to dissolve parliament and call new elections. And former SPD boss Björn Engholm is saying that his party should reconsider its position of ruling out a grand coalition, but that such a grand coalition would be possible only without Merkel.

                                                  A minority government is still an option, but Merkel doesn't want that. I think that it isn't bad to have a situation where the governing party has to negotiate laws with other parties, without the baggage of coalition agreements.

                                                  But according to a credible survey, 45% of Germans prefer new elections. About a quarter are in favour of a grand coalition, a little less in favour of the minority government. But the same poll found that the results would not be much different. The only movement is with the CDU (down by 2%) and the Greens (up by 3%), both in the range of margin of error. So a new election would solve nothing.

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                                                    #75
                                                    Especially when some polls have the AfD on 15%.

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