The Brexit Thread

[Tubby Isaacs]

It sounds like Remain hasn't been ruled out by the conference motion. Corbyn's competently playing Remain down, but saying it's on the table. What does McDonnell think he's been doing?

[Etienne]

Equivocating. I think he said more than he meant.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Tubbs, I reckon 'south korea option' would go down very well indeed among a certain strata. Tremendously hard worker, the korean. National service unless you win the world cup. Half their kids top themselves through exam stress. Sensible policies for a brighter britain.

Is that in Beyond the Coalition?

Orientals do make good workers.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I see Labour are backing the EEA.

This is much better.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Project Fear.

“If the UK leaves the EU in March 2019 with no agreement in place, UK and EU licensed airlines would lose the automatic right to operate air services between the UK and the EU without seeking advance permission,” said the government.

[Diable Rouge]

The latest Border wheeze is that NI would remain in the Customs Union, but only if Stormont (unlikely to meet again this decade) approves:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ages-eu-envoys

[Duncan Gardner]

Related to that Graun story and linked to a DR suggestion a few pages back: some NI commentators are calling for a NI only referendum on the CU.

Seems like a stunt really, as it would inevitably be seen as a Unionist/ Nationalist divide which neither the main Nat or Uni parties want at the moment

[Tubby Isaacs]

Don't call me Karen (Bradley) when I say this, but would people in NI vote strictly on those lines in a referendum?

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

The latest Border wheeze is that NI would remain in the Customs Union, but only if Stormont (unlikely to meet again this decade) approves:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ages-eu-envoys

That's mental. There's no hope of stormont ever reconvening as long as the DUP are supporting the Govt.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Don't call me Karen (Bradley) when I say this, but would people in NI vote strictly on those lines in a referendum?

most unionists voted to remain. There's a good chance that the low nationalist vote voted to leave. There's a hell of a lot of border unionists who have no interest in a return to a hard border.

[Duncan Gardner]

@ Tubby- maybe not strictly, but there would be pressure on wavering Unionists to follow the DUP lead. Fear of a Fenian Planet trumping that of a Hard Border, basically. Berba has a point- the faultline will become whether or not you want a HB- but not quite yet.

@ Berba- the DUP's balance of power at Westminster could be gone before Xmas with a General Election. But even then a return to Stormont looks unlikely. The DUP and SF don't have the minimum mutual trust needed to work together.

Unionists are a shade under 50% of the voting public in NI. So if at least 26 voters of every 100 are Unionist Remainers while 44 people of that sample voted Leave, at least 20 of those Leavers are non-Unionists. Are you suggesting that two thirds of Shinners voted thus?

[Diable Rouge]

most unionists voted to remain. There's a good chance that the low nationalist vote voted to leave. There's a hell of a lot of border unionists who have no interest in a return to a hard border.

I believe you've that the wrong way round, TAB - all the nationalist majority constituencies voted Remain, whereas those that voted Leave were all in heavily unionist areas.

[Duncan Gardner]

As DR suggests. The Nationalist majority areas are those marked W(est) plus Belfast West & South.

[Tubby Isaacs]

How many "border Unionists" are there in there?

All the border constituencies voted Remain, but 41.4% leave in Fermanagh and South Tyrone voted Leave. 37.1% in Newry and Armagh. Only 32.8% in South Down.

[Diable Rouge]

How many "border Unionists" are there in there?

All the border constituencies voted Remain, but 41.4% leave in Fermanagh and South Tyrone voted Leave. 37.1% in Newry and Armagh. Only 32.8% in South Down.

As the stats suggest, mostly in Fermanagh - the Protestant population is concentrated East of the Bann, so predominantly in Antrim, north Down, east Derry and north Armagh.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Thank you. Would they vote pragmatically on the border in a referendum?

[Diable Rouge]

Wouldn't want to place any bets on DUP pragmatism, but most of the remaining UUP members are middle-class, rural types, who could potentially be persuaded.

[Duncan Gardner]

Tubby- there's good background in the recent Radio 4 panel discussion 'Real Story'. The Panel and if/ when they expect a border poll winning (on unity overall r/t the CU)

Kevin Meagher (Labour SPAD, author 'Why a UI is inevitable)- WIN by 2030

Deirdre Heenan (Ulster Uni social policy academic)- WIN but not until 2040

Newton Emerson (Irish Times) LOSE in 2030

Reg Empey (UUP Pres and ex leader) LOSE whenever

[Tubby Isaacs]

Cheers.

I think whichever side I endorse won't win.

[Lang Spoon]

I endorse that statement Tubbs. Keep away from Indyref 2 as well.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Kate Hoey has said young Remainers have been brainwashed by universities. Austin Mitchell reckons "Europe can't do anything for us that we can't do ourselves". Let's award ourselves frictionless trade and the right to work in the EU.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I endorse that statement Tubbs. Keep away from Indyref 2 as well.

I'm still backing the Union at the moment, but if I change my mind, I'll keep quiet.

[Diable Rouge]

MP gets burned over fruit claims:

https://twitter.com/DKShrewsbury/status/1043476090914852864

https://twitter.com/Jim_Cornelius/status/1044323498754215941

[Tubby Isaacs]

He also claims to have had loads of Remainers on his case who've gone over to the other side.

[Lang Spoon]

Is that the guy who is a paid shill for the Saudi regime?