Originally posted by Patrick Thistle
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The Brexit Thread
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Yep, still think Stephen Bush was telling Truth that Abbott was the only one in the inner circle trying to push the agnostic Corbyn to accepting FoM. And that McDonnell and the fuckhead’s fuckhead Katy Clark were mad against it (McDonnell for fear of losing Midlands/North, Clark from insane purist socialism in one country bullshit)
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Wow. When the two most incompetent frontbenches in history face off once more... no way can Labour do anything but be pro Brexit in an election before the WM vote if their Amazing Don’t Show Yr Hand Too Soon Strategy is to work. So only Nats greens and useless Lib Dems to fight on an anti madness platform. On the plus side, such madness prob would hasten the end of the unions with Scotland and rump Ireland
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Originally posted by Wouter D View PostA snap election might lead to a situation where noone relies on the DUP anymore, so May can safely throw NI under the bus.
It's humiliating and upsetting to have your country partitioned in two, just as you think you're about to gain independence. My heart bleeds for them.
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Which will mean Hard as fuck Brexit for Racist Island, only small fires of chaos mostly Prod lit in the dirty 6, and a massive medium term headache for Scottish unionists with the precedent created (why shouldn’t Indy EU aligned Scot have no hard border with England in the same way, or also get to be in SM/CU while still being part of the UK?)Last edited by Lang Spoon; 22-09-2018, 23:28.
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well.... because the UK isn't in a custody sharing arrangement with anyone over scotland. Also the border in the sea works because there's only three or four ports and only a very small number of shipments that will be going from the UK to NI, and on to the republic. So it's doable. An independent scotland in the EU would have to have a hard border with an england that was outside the EU.
That also is incredibly doable. The Anglo scottish border is very short, it's mostly river, And a lot of it is national park, and no-one lives there, so there's about 10 crossing points. most of which could be easily closed.
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Fine article by Bobby mcDonagh, the former ambassador to the UK, Italy and the EU. A very clear explanation of why sideshow Theresa stepped on all the rakes in Salzburg.
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If Labour wins an election they ask for an extension of Article 50 on the grounds that the Tories have wasted two years.
And if Conference votes for a referendum Corbyn will accept it
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So, Corbyn's cunning plan is to unwillingly have a second referendum imposed on him by conference and grudgingly accept it? At that point will he suddenly start campaigning for people to be allowed to choose where they live rather than having it arbitrarily imposed on them?
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Bush might be right. And it’s another reminder of the disasters that Cameron and Clegg imposed on us -the five year fixed term Parliament without a written constitution- but that does t stop Labour demanding an election. And I think politically the prospect of a no deal Brexit must lead To election- a second internal Tory fix as Prime Minister would be untenable.
But this Bush tweet is also relevant IMO
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1043465777633001472
And a reminder that there are some more noxious elements in the Labour Party than Corbyn and MacDonnellLast edited by Nefertiti2; 23-09-2018, 06:53.
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I agree a second ref is stupid, but implicit in this Snell fucker’s analysis and fucking Flint’s whole schtick lately is no soft SM Brexit cos Real People be Racist or summat. Labour will never win the Legit Concerns voters back, if the fucks voted for Labour at all. Left parties competing for such fuckers/stoking these sentiments has helped collapse the left in half of Europe, and normalize the far right.
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I’ve barely slept tonight thanks to my Monstrous Carbuncle so I’m v grouchy but I see no salvation in the Labour Party at all. The dichotomy of being something New! like Podemos within something as factional and hidebound as the Labour Party might well just lead to a ton of disappointed young soon to be former voters. Syriza fatal compromise and failure without even reaching Govt.
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Any strategy must reflect the reality of the situation including the current numbers in the House of Commons and the lack of support amongst a rump of Labour MP’s for a referendum, or for free movement. Agree with you on Flint.
On the meantime this on Salzburg is very good as is Chris Grey’s latest analysis.
There’s lots wrong with the Labour Party. But it’s all we’ve got.Last edited by Nefertiti2; 23-09-2018, 07:11.
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A Lab wonk (I didn't catch the name) appearing on 5Live breakfast has been asked about the members wanting a 2nd referendum. As soon as he started talking about discussing their views he was asked very pointedly if that would be a "betrayal of the ordinary Labour voters", with the interviewer cutting him off mid-sentence in that certain way that you know that's what they had planned for. Not really surprising that he went back to talking about the Tories at the first opportunity.
I can see both sides of this debate about Labour's stance. Personally, I think the position they're in right now means they're damned if they do, damned if they don't. And there is some logic to the idea that if someone has grand ideas about jumping off a cliff so they can go to heaven, the best strategy to prevent it is to lead them to the edge and make them take a good, long look at the jagged rocks below. There might be other, less risky, ways to dissuade them, but perhaps they don't stop that person still wanting to jump if they get another chance later.
If that is the strategy, it's certainly not above criticism - but equally, neither is the alternative. That is, shouting at someone not to jump as they make their way towards the edge only works if yours is the loudest and most convincing voice. And the people who think that's the best strategy would naturally assume that the person who leads them to the edge for that dose of reality is actually in the other camp and likely to administer the final push.
Ultimately, the only thing that really matters is the final outcome and none of us can be certain what that is.
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The editor of the Financial Times agrees.
https://twitter.com/lionelbarber/status/1043766256623587328
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Originally posted by Patrick Thistle View PostLabour will always get hammered by a hostile press and whatever Corbyn did as PM would be painted as a disaster. Labour isn't going to succeed in govt without some kind of plan to literally neutralise the media.
Reading a lot of this thread makes me think of Poe Dameron going wide eyed in fright that there was no plan. And that went horribly wrong.
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Originally posted by ad hoc View PostCome on SB, there are a lot of things you can criticise Corbyn on, but saying that he will accept the decisions of the democratic processes of the labour party even if it is something he disagrees with is hardly one of them.
It could be more tricky with winning a referendum here (if it comes to that). People will say what SB has just said, and potentially we're in the situation we were in the first referendum where people cite his previous positions and say "You reckon he even believes this himself?"
But fair play that we're getting towards a better position.
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Originally posted by Nefertiti2 View PostAny strategy must reflect the reality of the situation including the current numbers in the House of Commons and the lack of support amongst a rump of Labour MP’s for a referendum, or for free movement. Agree with you on Flint.
On the meantime this on Salzburg is very good as is Chris Grey’s latest analysis.
There’s lots wrong with the Labour Party. But it’s all we’ve got.
Hopefully now they're going to be more isolated, and put under a bit of pressure. So, Laura Smith, Crewe and Nantwich has lots of manufacturing. Fancy closing that down? Do you even know what Patrick Minford said about manufacturing? I wish they'd been put under pressure sooner. But fair enough, sounds like they will be now.
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McCluskey.
No, because the people have already decided on that. We very rarely have referendums in this country. The people have decided, against my wishes and my union’s wishes, but they’ve decided ...
Here’s one of the problems Labour have; there are significant numbers of traditional Labour supporters who are saying we’re going to vote Conservative because we don’t trust Labour to take us out of the European Union despite the fact that Jeremy has said repeatedly, ‘Of course we recognise the result of course we respect the result, we’re coming out of the European Union.’ For us to now enter some kind of campaign that opens up that issue again I think would be wrong.
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