The Brexit Thread

[Snake Plissken]

Lots of leavers thought we'd be staying in the Single Market, I recall. That in itself doesn't say much, because that's consistent with "cake and eat it" rubbish. But I suppose it does show that there's always been a significant strand of opinion in leavers that appreciated the importance of the Single Market.

I think that you will find they are all denying ever having said such a thing. And when presented with the evidence of saying exactly that, are claiming that they are being quoted out of context.

[Snake Plissken]

I'm talking about voters, not MPs. The ones that seem now to be supporting Remain in big chunks of South Wales, and likely elsewhere.

There are more than 4 Labour MPs who are leavers anyhow.

Nearly 70% of Labour voters voted Remain.

IIRC, it was more than the Lib Dems. (Or SNP. One of them.) But easier to blame the Leave vote on the poor, thick racists of Burnley, Stoke and Darlington than examine the middle-class curtain twitching racism of Chipping Norton.

[ad hoc]

It's remarkable how many people who loathe Corbyn and refute everything he stands for, and who refuse to be led by him, are desperate for him to provide some leadership.

(That's not aimed at Tubby, btw, nor anyone else on here, just the various frothing centrists I see elsewhere)

[Duncan Gardner]

Nearly 70% of Labour voters voted Remain.

IIRC, it was more than the Lib Dems. (Or SNP. One of them.) But easier to blame the Leave vote on the poor, thick racists of Burnley, Stoke and Darlington than examine the middle-class curtain twitching racism of Chipping Norton

Aye. We're two mutually antagonistic blocs both with 45%+ support. What could possibly go wrong? You're right it misses the point to blame often much smaller groups within that, be they the ex-industrial Lancastrian working class, the Berkshire Barbour belt or the DUP.

Here in the Black Country Remain got 35% in the Referendum, Labour + Lib Dem + Green 42% in last year's General Election. In this year's Dudley Council election, the Tories added another 15% of the poll while Labour stagnated (many of the UKIPpers that went Tory were recently ex-Labour)

[anton pulisov]

Apologies if posted already. Fintan O'Toole on form.

Brexit has always had a large dose of phoney populism – it is an elite project for extreme globalisation wrapped up as a popular revolt against globalisation. But it also has an equally large dose of phoney unionism – it is an English national rebellion wrapped in the union flag. Among its many contradictions, perhaps the one in which the gap between rhetoric and reality yawns most widely is this one.

[Duncan Gardner]

That (NYT?) article referred some pages back was telling, at least its main point that supposedly informed English opinion is clueless about Ireland. More of that sort of thing would be good albeit without the lazy stereotyping, headless pigeons, Great Hunger mopery and exaggerated outrage about the sub-editor's lurid headline.

[Nefertiti2]

Meanwhile Luciana Berger posted a placard saying : where’s Jeremy Corbyn on her instagram feed.

[Duncan Gardner]

Spitz Enmity does Where's Cap'n Corb. I'm getting an earworm

[Tubby Isaacs]

It's remarkable how many people who loathe Corbyn and refute everything he stands for, and who refuse to be led by him, are desperate for him to provide some leadership.

(That's not aimed at Tubby, btw, nor anyone else on here, just the various frothing centrists I see elsewhere)

It's a good point. And Brexit is about all they have that can rally opposition.

[Snake Plissken]

Meanwhile Luciana Berger posted a placard saying : where’s Jeremy Corbyn on her instagram feed.

Was the leader of the most pro-Remain party there?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Nearly 70% of Labour voters voted Remain.

IIRC, it was more than the Lib Dems. (Or SNP. One of them.) But easier to blame the Leave vote on the poor, thick racists of Burnley, Stoke and Darlington than examine the middle-class curtain twitching racism of Chipping Norton.

The main drivers for Leave were being old or Tory. Even in some strongly leave areas you can make a case Labour voters were majority Remain. Neath was 54% Leave, Labour in 2015 got mid 40s. I think that's Labour voters supporting Remain. Even so, I can why Labour worried about a backlash in some places, but it seems increasingly unlikely.

On a tangent, you got affluent Tory seats like Monmouthshire voting Remain. Part of that must be non Tories whose votes are normally wasted and can't be arsed. If these people show up regularly, lots of Tory seats could be in play.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Was the leader of the most pro-Remain party there?

Cable was there, not that he or they are relevant. If they stick up somebody untainted by the Coalition and can get through a campaign without banging on about sinful gay sex,they might peel away enough votes to be a nuisance to Labour, I suppose. But I don't even know if they have anybody. Layla Moran gets mentioned.

[Nefertiti2]

I think that for most people Brexit isn’t the most important issue. So Monmouth (say) won’t pivot . Not will Chipping Norton( which also voted narrowly for remain, incidentally)

[anton pulisov]

From the O'Toole piece, a survey he looked at:

And when asked whether “the unravelling of the peace process in Northern Ireland” is a “price worth paying” for Brexit that allows them to “take back control”, fully 83% of leave voters and 73% of Conservative voters agree that it is. This is not, surely, mere mindless cruelty – it expresses a deep belief that Northern Ireland is not “us”, that what happens “over there” is not our responsibility.

Christ almighty. What is wrong with these people.

Consider that, in 1998, citizens of the Republic of Ireland voted 94.4% in favour of amending the Irish constitution to remove the claim to the North. Because it was in the interest of peace.

[George C.]

From the O'Toole piece, a survey he looked at:



Christ almighty. What is wrong with these people.

Consider that, in 1998, citizens of the Republic of Ireland voted 94.4% in favour of amending the Irish constitution to remove the claim to the North. Because it was in the interest of peace.

That was mentioned around two weeks ago.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I think that for most people Brexit isn’t the most important issue. So Monmouth (say) won’t pivot . Not will Chipping Norton( which also voted narrowly for remain, incidentally)

Monmouth might be a bit rural for Labour to win. Though I suppose if the Tories fuck over farmers, they could lose it. Witney, Wantage, places like that, could be close.

Brexit, if the cliff edge is avoided, is a slow burner. I think it could lose them votes even when it's not directly in people's minds.

[Satchmo Distel]

The timing of the election is important. It might favour Labour if the election is not until, say, a year after the Leave date, to enable the consequences of Brexit to really sink in. However, realistically, how long can the Tories cling on? It could be like John Major in 1996-97, where clinging on just widens the margin of eventual defeat.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

I think it won't take more than a couple of weeks after Brexit for that to become clear. Right now, unless they can agree to the Backstop, you're going to get an ultra hard brexit next march. There's going to be an election shortly afterwards. Either that or no elections ever again.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

So Karen Bradley says UK will not renege on Backstop. Which is fascinating. How is one to reconcile this with all the other things that the UK govt says. Could it be that Karen Bradley doesn't understand what she is saying, or is she flagging up that the Govt are going to shaft the DUP?

[Duncan Gardner]

Quite likely both.

Bradley had a reputation in previous Govt jobs as 'Theresa's even more wooden mate'. Two mates of mine stood for Parliament against her and barely got a word. Aware of this reputation, when she arrived in BelAir there was a brief flurry of photo-ops, baby-kissing and the like. But she wouldn't do any interviews on Radio Useless*, comments since have shown why.

* Nor do SF or DUP to be fair. It's beneath the Brains Trust and you can't trust the juniors to avoid saying something gormless under pressure.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The timing of the election is important. It might favour Labour if the election is not until, say, a year after the Leave date, to enable the consequences of Brexit to really sink in. However, realistically, how long can the Tories cling on? It could be like John Major in 1996-97, where clinging on just widens the margin of eventual defeat.

May must never stop rueing calling that election. If she stuck some semi-plausible, not immediately lethal deal, she could maybe have called an election saying "You think Labour would have been tougher? People said I couldn't get a deal! Give me my own mandate!" and all that. It's hard to see what that sort of deal might be, but the backbench frothers might have kept quieter with an election coming.

But she pissed that one up. Like you say, she might be stuck with going on like Major.

[Diable Rouge]

So Karen Bradley says UK will not renege on Backstop. Which is fascinating. How is one to reconcile this with all the other things that the UK govt says. Could it be that Karen Bradley doesn't understand what she is saying, or is she flagging up that the Govt are going to shaft the DUP?

At least Baker has withdrawn his NI amendment, which makes a backstop more likely.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The Government have collapsed with Yougov to a 5 point lead. Unbelievable.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Labour Leave are still in the bunker for Brexit. They've spotted the threat to peace in Northern Ireland. It's the Irish Prime Minister making a joke on Twitter (in response to a foul mouthed troll).

https://twitter.com/BrendanChilton/status/1054302962246397957

[Tubby Isaacs]

The Tories can beat that. Stewart Jackson (Con, Peterborough 2005-17), then Spad to David Davis.