Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

The Brexit Thread

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

    The PM of Malta, Kevin Muscat, enjoying himself too.

    Comment


      Corbyn calls for "both sides" to do better. I wouldn't. I'd call on ours because we're by far the worse.

      Comment


        Finanacial times report

        K Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn was given a rapturous reception by his Socialist allies in Brussels on Thursday, as he warned that leaving the EU without a Brexit deal would be “catastrophic” for the UK economy.

        Mr Corbyn was met with a standing ovation by Europe’s centre-left parties as he addressed delegates at the Europe Together conference, just hours before prime minister Theresa May was scheduled to meet her EU counterparts at a European leaders’ summit.

        “We’re here to make sure that negotiations get on track, that we defend jobs in Britain, and that we make sure there is trade access to Europe in the future,” said Mr Corbyn, who was introduced as Britain’s “future prime minister” as Coldplay’s “Adventure of a Lifetime” played in the background.

        “The prime minister seems to have managed to upset just about everybody and have a warring cabinet around her. It’s up to her to get the negotiations back on track,” said Mr Corbyn. The Labour leader, who was a fierce critic of the EU during his decades as a backbench MP, said the possibility of a “no deal” would be “catastrophic” for the UK economy.*

        “We cannot countenance the idea that we rush headlong into a no deal with Europe. No deal would be very dangerous for employment and jobs in Britain,” he said. “We are clear in our priorities: a jobs-first Brexit which maintains free access to the single market.”

        Mr Corbyn met Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, and the prime ministers of Portugal, Italy and Sweden on Thursday in Brussels.

        Mr Corbyn’s popularity among young voters makes him an exception in Europe. Socialist parties in Germany, France and the Netherlands have all suffered historic defeats this year.

        The Labour leader told his European allies that they needed to come up with “radical alternatives” for Europeans after years of austerity, rising job insecurity and falling living standards.*

        “The neoliberal economic model is broken. It doesn’t work for most people,” he said, adding: “Our broken system has provided fertile ground for the growth of nationalist and xenophobic politics.”

        Mr Corbyn’s enthusiastic reception was in stark contrast to Mrs May’s arrival in Brussels on Thursday. The UK prime minister was rebuffed from attending a meeting of Britain’s traditional European allies — including the Netherlands, the Scandinavian countries and the Baltic countries — on the sidelines of the summit.

        Leo Varadkar, Ireland’s prime minister, was invited to that meeting, said: “We are all small northern European states with open trading economies, similarly values, very similar economies. That is going to be particularly important when we lose our biggest traditional ally, Britain, in a year or two.”

        Comment


          “We cannot countenance the idea that we rush headlong into a no deal with Europe. No deal would be very dangerous for employment and jobs in Britain,” he said. “We are clear in our priorities: a jobs-first Brexit which maintains free access to the single market.”
          People like me have taken this as cake and eat it rubbish, but I wonder if something close to FoM is ready to be announced when we've tanked a bit more? He'll deserve all our thanks if he does that.

          Comment


            Some good stuff on Arron banks and dodgy funding of the Brexit campaign. via the DUP as Political advertising is secret in Northern Ireland where the ads ran in GB where the DUP don;t stand

            Someone was fined. but the Electoral Commission won't say who
            Last edited by Nefertiti2; 19-10-2017, 18:14.

            Comment


              Originally posted by Tubby Isaacs View Post
              People like me have taken this as cake and eat it rubbish, but I wonder if something close to FoM is ready to be announced when we've tanked a bit more? He'll deserve all our thanks if he does that.
              Free access to the single market implies EU laws, the ECJ, full FOM and no say. That's not something that there's any room for negotiation on.

              Comment


                I'm not sure anybody cares about the ECJ.

                Comment


                  The loopies do, evidently. and they have a lot of influence in the Conservative Party and in the press.

                  Comment


                    The fucking Tories seem to keep talking it into a red line.

                    Comment


                      They'll talk the metric system into a red line the way they're going.

                      Comment


                        Martin Wolf in the FT destroys them

                        Keir Starmer was very good on the Today programme. which seemed to embolden Katya Adler. And Varoufakis and Sikorski continued the pummellling.




                        It is highly likely that the Brexit negotiations will fail, imposing an abrupt shock on the UK economy and ruining relations with its neighbours. This view is condemned by those who insist we must be more positive. That is like advising someone who has just jumped off a building that, if only he thought positively, he could fly. To understand the state we are now in we need to understand the zombie ideas that hold so many Brexiters in their grip.

                        The first such idea is that the EU is being unreasonable in insisting that the broad terms of the divorce (if not the details) are settled before moving on to transitional arrangements. David Davis, who is in charge of the negotiations for the UK, complained to the House of Commons that “they are using time pressure to see if they can get more money out of us. Bluntly that’s what is going on — it’s obvious to anybody.” Indeed, it is. Stop complaining: that is what strong parties do.

                        A linked zombie idea is that the UK is really in a stronger position than the EU, because it runs a trade deficit with it. But, even in goods, UK exports to the EU are three times more important to the UK’s economy than vice versa (7.5 per cent of gross domestic product against 2.5 per cent). Even without the UK, the EU remains the second-largest economy in the world, with an economy almost six times bigger, at market prices, in 2016. The UK is negotiating with an economic superpower. How does that feel? Just ask the Canadians, now negotiating with the US over the North American Free Trade Agreement.

                        Even the notion that the EU’s priorities are unreasonable is a zombie idea. It makes sense for the EU to insist that the issues of money, Ireland and EU residents in the UK be dealt with, at least in principle, before moving on. It also has good reason to feel that the UK’s suggestions on the first two are inadequate or incoherent. Despite Theresa May’s helpful speech in Florence last month, the UK has not indicated in any detail what it thinks it owes: Boris Johnson’s statement that the EU can “go whistle” for money is characteristically unhelpful.

                        A further zombie idea is that the UK economy is a powerhouse. A reading of the latest economic survey from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development demonstrates how delusional this is. The UK has a good employment record. But its average productivity is at best mediocre and its productivity growth post-crisis is in the basement, down there with Italy’s. Investment is weak and relative export performance consistently dismal. Contrast Germany. Debt-fuelled consumption kept growth up after the Brexit referendum. But real wages are now falling and growth has weakened, partly due to the dawning reality that Brexit is likely to be ultra-hard, despite the chancellor Philip Hammond’s justified efforts to prevent this disaster from happening.

                        Yet another zombie idea is that the UK can survive quite well without a favourable deal with the EU or a transition to such a deal. It can, we are told, trade perfectly well on World Trade Organisation terms. In any case, trade with our neighbours just does not matter that much. But, as Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, has rightly noted, the initial impact of Brexit will be “deglobalisation”, not a “global Britain”.

                        This is self-evident. It is also impossible to compare today’s intra-industrial trade, particularly within supply chains, with the inter-industry trade of the 19th century, as some now do. In trade today both proximity and regulatory barriers matter. It will be impossible to offset the loss of favourable access to EU markets, which now take some 40 per cent of the UK’s exports. Even to start on this, the UK would have to reach favourable deals with the US, China and India, the actual and potential superpowers. In all such negotiations, the UK will be very much the weaker party. Talks would be brutal.

                        Yet another zombie is the idea that it will be possible to shift smoothly to WTO terms for trade with the EU. All procedures governing trade with the EU would need to be refashioned. That would take the enthusiastic co-operation of partners who will regard the UK as something like a pariah. Why should anybody think they will make it easy for the UK?

                        The last zombie is the idea that those who deny the claims of the Brexiters are “traitors” or “saboteurs” working against “the will of the people”. This is despotism. In a liberal democracy, we are all entitled to our opinions and to seek to overturn what we consider grossly mistaken decisions. The saboteurs are those whose zombie ideas have brought the UK to a ruinous break with its neighbours and natural partners. It is our right to argue this. And we will.

                        martin.wolf@ft.com

                        T

                        Comment


                          FT headline: Theresa May asks EU not to back her into corner on Brexit

                          The only person backing you into a corner is you, Theresa.

                          Comment


                            That Martin Wolf piece doesn't even mention that The UK is heavily reliant on exporting services, and that ends abruptly when you leave the single market. It's odd, but that was literally one of the first thing couple of things that hit me about brexit and I don't think i've ever seen anyone really talking about it. Everyone talks about WTO tariffs, but Services Exports don't really happen much outside of the single market, or through trade deals battered out by the EU.

                            Comment


                              And here we are:

                              1. In the light of the first five rounds of negotiations, taking into account the assessment presented by the Union negotiator and reaffirming its guidelines of 29 April 2017, the European Council:
                               welcomes the progress made regarding citizens' rights and invites the negotiator to build on the convergence achieved so as to provide the necessary legal certainty and guarantees to all concerned citizens and their family members who shall be able to exercise directly their rights derived from EU law and protected by the withdrawal agreement, including through smooth and simple administrative procedures and the role of the Court of justice of the European Union;
                               acknowledges that, as regards Ireland, there has been some progress on convergence on principles and objectives regarding protection of the Good Friday Agreement and maintenance of the Common Travel Area, and invites the Union negotiator to pursue further refinement of these principles, taking into account the major challenge that the UK’s withdrawal represents, including as regards avoidance of a hard border, and therefore expecting the UK to present and commit to flexible and imaginative solutions called for by the unique situation of Ireland;
                               notes that, while the UK has stated that it will honour its financial obligations taken during its membership, this has not yet been translated into a firm and concrete commitment from the UK to settle all of these obligations.
                              2. Building on this progress, the European Council calls for work to continue with a view to consolidating the convergence achieved and pursuing negotiations in order to be able to move to the second phase of the negotiations as soon as possible.
                              3. At its next session in December, the European Council will reassess the state of progress in the negotiations with a view to determining whether sufficient progress has been achieved on each of the three above issues. If so, it will adopt additional guidelines in relation to the framework for the future relationship and on possible transitional arrangements which are in the interest of the Union and comply with the conditions and core principles of the guidelines of 29 April 2017. Against this background, the European Council invites the Council (Art. 50) together with the Union negotiator to start internal preparatory discussions.

                              Comment


                                Tory manifesto cover photo?

                                Comment


                                  Hah, Just as I'm moaning the first "holy shit, what about services exports" pokes its way into the news cycle.

                                  Comment


                                    Who, as they say, knew!

                                    Comment


                                      It's easy enough to visualize what happens with stuff passing through ports, but what happens with services? Stop immediately working for an EU client? Carry on working but can't send a bill? Do cops and regulators swoop on the EU client?

                                      I'm sure it varies and it's bad, but as Berba says, we've not been given a proper sense of it.

                                      Comment


                                        Multi-national service organisations will generally be able to simply switch the locus of the billing entity to one domiciled in the EU (though that isn't always a complete "fix").

                                        It will obviously be more of an issue for smaller organisations and single proprietors.

                                        Comment


                                          Won't be too hard for a smaller organization to get somebody in EU27 to bill it for them, will it?

                                          Would an EU client paying eg British architect directly for work, as before, get into trouble?

                                          Comment


                                            Ask your government

                                            Comment


                                              It's mainly going to be an issue of tax for that sort of thing, I believe, especially once VAT rates diverge. There are industries where you would need an EU regulated entity to be providing the service though.

                                              Comment


                                                Agreed

                                                Comment


                                                  Cheers.

                                                  Comment


                                                    Labour Brexiter, John Mills, talking out of his arse about other countries trading on WTO terms. Getting away with it on Sky News.

                                                    Comment

                                                    Working...
                                                    X