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Rogin's 2017 golf predictions

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    Rogin's 2017 golf predictions

    2017's going to feel like a slow year, after the hectic schedule in 2016. Only the four majors? How will we possibly cope?

    Still, first things first. 2016 saw none of the "new triumvirate" of Spieth, McIlroy or Day win majors, although all did enough to remain in the world's top five, and Day begins the year as world number one. Rory McIlroy will have an important 2017, I feel. Does he really retain the drive to get back to number one, or is he starting to coast? This year could determine if he goes on to become one of the all-time greats, or just another Crenshaw or Couples.

    That all begins at Augusta, of course, where for the third time Rory arrives knowing that a victory would automatically elevate him into "all-time" status by completing his career grand slam. He's proven already in the past that he's got the game to conquer Augusta (and the rest of the field), but can he cope with that added weight of expectation? If McIlroy wins at Augusta, I wouldn't be surprised if he goes on to enjoy an extraordinary season. Two, possibly three majors.

    Jordan Spieth would be foolish to rule out at Augusta (he's yet to finish lower than second there) but the player I'll be rooting for is Japan's Hideki Matsuyama. He's finished 5th and 7th the last two Masters, and ended 2016 on a blaze of form that's taken him up to 6th in the world. Japan's first major winner would be long overdue, too.

    The US Open is going to a new course, Erin Hills, so no pointers from past events there as to who might do well. So I'll stick to my perennial favourites Sergio Garcia, Rickie Fowler and Branden Grace, with a nod towards anyone who wins the Memorial Tournament, and Phil Mickelson. Will THIS be the year that Lefty finally completes a career Grand Slam of his own?

    The Open returns to Birkdale, where Padraig Harrington won in 2008. Harrington is ... unlikely to feature next year, but defending champion Henrik Stenson might just be worth a punt - he was third in 2008. If not McIlroy, I have a gut feeling one of the young English lads - Andy Sullivan, Matt Fitzpatrick, or Chris Wood - might have a breakthrough moment next year. It's been a long time since we had an English Open champion (Faldo in 1992 - and that was in ~Scotland) and it just feels about time the home crowd was cheering someone on again.

    The PGA Championship will be played at Quail Hollow, the course that hosts the Wells Fargo event on the PGA tour. Rory McIlroy's won there twice, and been second (in a playoff) to Rickie Fowler. Another recent winner there was J.B. Holmes. The course is famous for its "Green Mile" finish of 3 very long finishing holes so in August will be as much a test of stamina as skill. Very hard to predict. Dustin Johnson and Martin Kaymer will both be in with a shout, it's their sort of test.

    One of the big off-course battles in 2017 will be around ball technology. Almost everyone now agrees privately that it's got out of hand, when rank amateurs are hitting the thing 320 yards off the tee, and that for the sake of the game's integrity - not to mention for reasons like being able to shorten courses again, saving on land and watering, amongst other things - we should go back to the core designs of the 1980s, where even Jack Nicklaus was only smiting the thing about 270 yards. We'll see where that debate goes. Golf's rules change at about the same speed as oil tankers (it took them four years to ban "anchored" putting) but here's hoping.

    #2
    Rogin's 2017 golf predictions

    Rogin the Armchair fan wrote:
    One of the big off-course battles in 2017 will be around ball technology. Almost everyone now agrees privately that it's got out of hand, when rank amateurs are hitting the thing 320 yards off the tee, and that for the sake of the game's integrity - not to mention for reasons like being able to shorten courses again, saving on land and watering, amongst other things - we should go back to the core designs of the 1980s, where even Jack Nicklaus was only smiting the thing about 270 yards. We'll see where that debate goes. Golf's rules change at about the same speed as oil tankers (it took them four years to ban "anchored" putting) but here's hoping.
    As a really rank amateur, who is happy to hit the ball 220 yards, I really hope they try and make the ball shorter and straighter. I get driven mad by macho asshole bros and dudes who wait on the tips for the group in front to clear the green before teeing off, and then smash the ball 300 odd yards into the trees, or the canyon, and then spend 5 minutes driving around in circles in their carts unable to find the damned thing. And they should force everyone with a handicap higher than 15 to play forward tees.

    As for the pros, I don't really know much but I really hope to see less of Jordan Spieth's horrible slow play. And I feel like Rickie Fowler is going down the Sergio Garcia route of mercurial youth never quite capitalised on.

    I do know they're growing the rough out, ready for the Farmers Insurance tournament at Torrey Pines in a month, because my arms were tired for three days after playing last week, and if I tried to hit the ball more than 100 yards out of the rough it wouldn't go anywhere - a short lofted club out to the fairway is the only shot for us mortals. I haven't got to play the rebuilt north course yet, which they use for the first two days of the tournament.

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      #3
      Rogin's 2017 golf predictions

      I haven't played for decades, but had thought that the real change in terms of length was primarily due to club technology and strength training, rather than changes in the ball.

      Is that wrong?

      Or is is just that it is thought that altering the ball is the best way to counter the other developments?

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        #4
        Rogin's 2017 golf predictions

        To be honest, I thought it was club technology, too. All sorts of fancy composite materials. It's not just strength training, though, because otherwise to golf-bros wouldn't be able to hit their wild, wild 320 yard drives into course adjacent executive housing complexes.

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          #5
          Rogin's 2017 golf predictions

          Club technology has made some of the difference, yes - thinner, whippier shafts - but the ball itself now flies lower, and further, than anyone imagined was possible ten years ago. The guys at Nike and Titleist and the like have devoted NASA level research into the dimple patterns and internal composites that keep the thing in the air flying longer, even after the same initial clubhead speed at contact. All very clever stuff about reducing drag and minimising spin. The old balls were basically a wound ball of elastic bands (like you used to make as a kid) covered in a soft plastic shell. If you hit one askew with an iron you could break it open.

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            #6
            Rogin's 2017 golf predictions

            Well I don't know who this Justin Thomas fellow is, but starting 2017 with a tournament win and then rounds of 59, 64 and 65 is just taking the piss, really. He should have a word with himself and calm down a bit, he's making the others look a bit shit.

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