Trump's Card

[Eggchaser]

Mr Burns following in the rear.

[San Bernardhinault]

Sinema now up 28,700 votes. But (always a but) there's a feeling that these votes may have come from Sinema's district today; tomorrow's vote is expected - at least by Republicans - to favour McSally.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Sinema up by 1.5%.

[ursus arctos]

And the Democratic candidate for Secretary of State is now within 3,000 votes.

[San Bernardhinault]

They estimate about 270k ballots left to count in AZ. 200k in Maricopa (Phoenix), 40k in Pima (Tucson), 20k in Pinal (Phoenix Southern 'burbs), 10k in Coconino (Flagstaff).

McSally needs to win the overall remaining votes by something like 9% to even trigger a recount.

Coconino is very Democrat (62-35 so far). Pinal is Republican (55-42) which should balance the outstanding Coconino votes. Pima is pretty Democrat (56-42), so McSally needs to do very well in the remaining Maricopa votes to win.

[San Bernardhinault]

I should point out to the non-US-ers here that AZ and FL are massive deals, which is why we're focusing on them. It won't make much difference until 2020 (well, perhaps a 52-48 Senate with Murkowski, Collins and Romney showing maverick tendencies could make a tiny difference). But a 53-47 or (unlikely) 52-48 balance now would make a Democratic senate in 2020 much less of a reach into really red states. You wouldn't be hoping against hope for Beto to defeat John Cornyn.

[Satchmo Distel]

"Murkowski, Collins and Romney showing maverick tendencies" will never happen.

FL governorship is also crucial because of gerrymandering, implementation of Amendment 4, trying to save our environment from total catastrophe, and just to give the Dems "a place at the table" ( i.e. leverage) as Gillum stated in his premature concession speech. I think a clean sweep for the GOP would dishearten lukewarm volunteers and voters to the extent that they may not try as hard in future, thinking it's too rigged, especially the Latino and black vote that has to be gotten out in 2020.

[Tubby Isaacs]

1.3% and 28,000 lead for Sinema.

[anton pulisov]

Mittens already said that he'd have voted for Kavanaugh

[Satchmo Distel]

MSNBC right now: 72% of GOP voters said before midterms that there would be voter fraud so Trump is preaching to a choir not just insanely ranting.

[ursus arctos]

The Fox universe is such a bubble that many of them cannot comprehend that they lose in places like AZ, GA and FLA without fraud.

Juventus supporters are paragons of reason by comparison.

[San Bernardhinault]

Well, given that we knew what was happening in Georgia, I think we all thought there'd be voter fraud.

One interesting thing I've spotted is that the entire southern border of the US - apart from Will Hurd's Texas seat which hasn't been called and which he's leading by 0.5% - is now represented by Democrats. It's almost as if the people who have the most direct interaction with Mexico are not actually scared of Mexicans.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

In fairness, even Luciano Moggi looks like a paragon of transparency, fairness and virtue beside the GOP. They're pretty far out there at this stage.

[Satchmo Distel]

Moggi's a pussycat.

[anton pulisov]

Well, given that we knew what was happening in Georgia, I think we all thought there'd be voter fraud.

One interesting thing I've spotted is that the entire southern border of the US - apart from Will Hurd's Texas seat which hasn't been called and which he's leading by 0.5% - is now represented by Democrats. It's almost as if the people who have the most direct interaction with Mexico are not actually scared of Mexicans.

That's cause they're all Mexicans man

[Nefertiti2]

The WWE taught Trump how to fuse the interests of big business with a mass of people coagulated around shared rage.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Sinema 32,640 ahead.

[G-Man]

You wouldn't be hoping against hope for Beto to defeat John Cornyn.

That's the conundrum, isn't it? Which ardent supporter of Israeli warcrimes is the lesser shit.

[G-Man]

I think, today, this thread will get to 500 pages, marking my first, and probably only, half-ton. Unfortunately, I'm out, and won't be here to mark it.
Can I just say that I'm so very very proud to be a part of it, and I think Donald would be too.
I thank you all.

President Trump has mentioned this thread today at a rally in Kuntzville: "No thread in history has made it to 500 pages, they tell me, people can't stop talking about Donald Trump and this great, great administration. We are doing very well, very well. Obama tried to get 500 pages, couldn't get there, folks, just couldn't make it. People like to talk about me, good people, 500 pages, never done before, folks, it's a first. But, you tell me, folks, I'm not saying, but people say, in only two years, so many things, good things, the fake news will say it's not 500 pages but there it is in print for all to see."

Make OTF Great Again!

[Sits]

That's good G-Man.

[Tactical Genius]

So, has the voting patterns of the Hispanic community in Florida and Georgia been discussed yet?

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank...2018-midterms/

[Satchmo Distel]

Lots of conservative Cubans in Florida

[Tactical Genius]

Lots of conservative Cubans in Florida

I have been to Florida and from my experience, all Hispanic communities are well represented. Are you suggesting that other Hispanic populations didn't vote Republican in significant numbers?

[ursus arctos]

Florida Cubans have an outsized impact on state and national politics for my entire life, but while it is true that they still are more conservative on the whole than other Latinos in the state, that is no longer enough on its own to explain statewide results. This article from 2016 is useful on the demographic changes to the Latino population in Florida; Cubans now only represent less than a third of the total (and I would expect that proportion to have gone down since 2016 due to the influx of Puerto Ricans after the hurricanes).

There is more "Latino" flight capital in Florida (and especially Miami) than in other states, as it remains the favourite "safe" destination of wealthy Latin Americans and their money, but I would suggest that this year's results also reflect the long-standing importance of race in Latin culture (particularly among the better off). That said, the Latino vote for Gillum was only one percentage point below that for Nelson (who is white) and only two points below that for HRC in 2016. One thing that is very obvious is that Democratic hopes for a massive boost from Puerto Ricans livid with the Administration's mismanagement of hurricane relief didn't meet expectations.

[anton pulisov]

It might, when it comes to actually voting Trump out of office.