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    Nevada is such a strange place.

    It has been “right to work” for generations, but has some of the strongest and most politically active unions in the country. And it’s population is so small that the impact of demographic changes is accelerated.

    And that’s before you get to the Adelson Effect.

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      The Heller machine is in total overdrive. We are getting glossy (overhead projector type) transparency adverts through the mail every day now for 2 weeks. There are at least 20 Heller commercials every day (and yes, about the same for Rosen). Heller has the backing of the Governor (who seems to be ok for a Republican), who hasn't backed Laxalt for Attorney General.

      It's going to be very close, and I can't see Rosen winning.

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        And re: the population. I thought it was pretty liberal, but recently I am coming across more ouvert right-wing nutbaggery, even by one (ex) friend, who turned out to be a racist fuckwit. If it goes by numbers of votes, Rosen has a chance, but if it's by number of counties won, Heller will clean up. (Not sure which.)

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          Non-Vegas Nevada is really, really weird. Almost all the towns are really shitty - what towns there are - and the population seems to be half from the scary-end-of-mormonism; the other half are genuine loner libertarian anti-government, off-gridders (there's obviously quite a lot of overlap between these groups). It's enough to make the electorate and population (and, indeed, city) of Las Vegas seem relatively normal and sane.

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            I wonder if the hurricane damage might affect turnout for GOP in those very conservative FL counties whose big turnout in 2016 gave the state to Trump.

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              There's some argument that the hurricane is a godsend to Rick Scott, who's been down in lots of recent polling, because it allows a Governor to look important and busy while not campaigning; which is something not available to a senator.

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                I tend to doubt that will happen to a significant extent, and that if it does, it would be at best breakeven with the new registrations that were lost in the few days preceding the storm. There is a definite reason why the state government is fighting all attempts to extend the registration deadline.

                SB, you forgot the Basque ranchers and Reno/the NV side of Lake Tahoe (which remind me of New Hampshire in some ways).

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                  Basque ranchers? Wow.

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                    Wonder if the originalist Supreme Court will find a way to argue against States rights on that one.

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                      Death penalty in Washington state has been ruled as breaching the state's own constitution, meaning that the SCOTUS cannot overturn the ruling, I think.

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                        There are some really good traditional Basque restaurants in rural Nevada, Spoony.

                        Satchmo is right. The Washington ruling means capital punishment is no longer available for any state crimes and that the death sentences of everyone on death row there (less than a dozen) have been commuted to life in prison.

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                          Originally posted by San Bernardhinault View Post
                          There's some argument that the hurricane is a godsend to Rick Scott, who's been down in lots of recent polling, because it allows a Governor to look important and busy while not campaigning; which is something not available to a senator.
                          Nelson had a tiny lead in some recent polls.

                          Is anybody going to change their opinion of Scott or be reminded of him because there's a hurricane?

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                            Originally posted by Tubby Isaacs View Post
                            Particularly neat when you can purge the voters yourself for the election you're running in.

                            I mean, I don't think it makes any difference which particular "conservative Republican" is in charge of elections, but I would have expected that they'd at least want to give the appearance there wasn't an egregious conflict of interest.

                            This is rather depressing. Any chance of a shift in these numbers, especially in Nevada?

                            https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1050342864062955520
                            what do you mean?

                            even though he's called Cruz, he's two to one down amongst Hispanics

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                              I was thinking more of Nevada and Heller, not that I know anything about Nevada- not had time to read Ursus' link, but I will.

                              I am a bit surprised Cruz could be on even as many as 37% too.

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                                I suspect that Tubby is surprised the Republicans' numbers aren't lower among hispanics, down where they are among African Americans in the 10% range. I doubt they'd ever get that low, given how conservative certain US hispanic populations are - particularly, but not exclusively, Cuban-Americans. But it really is a bit weird that it's not down below 30% consider that the administration and its enablers have spent the last two years attacking hispanic people as a group.

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                                  Exactly that.

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                                    it could be based on likely voters or registered voters

                                    hispanic turnout in texas is only 40% or something like that

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                                      Heller won by 1.2 points in 2012. If he's getting 38% of any number at all, I'm scared.

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                                        It is also almost exactly the percentage of Nevada Latinos who make more than USD 75K

                                        This piece talks about both parties’ pitches to Nevada Latinos

                                        As always, turnout is the single most significant wild card.

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                                          Local stuff alert...

                                          It's that time of year again where I start looking through the ballot (not that I'm allowed to vote, I'm just allowed to try and persuade the missus and friends).

                                          It is just utterly, utterly nuts. There are 15 pages just for the actual voting. Plus another 140 pages of info about what's going on. It's bonkers that we get to vote on judges. It's even more bonkers that people who have no idea about the school system and don't have kids get to vote on who becomes school board members, or on jobs that we don't even understand what they mean (State Controller, State Board of Equalization, really?)

                                          But the real madness is in the ballot measures and propositions.

                                          There are 11 California ones this year, 4 San Diego County ones, 8 San Diego City ones, and 2 school district measures. It's out of control.

                                          It's Direct Democracy gone mad.

                                          Particular horrors this year are Props 5 and 6 in California.

                                          Prop 5 allows over-55s to take their low property taxes (which they've kept since 1978 thanks to the terrible prop 13) with them if they move house to a property with higher property taxes. They're somehow doubling down on the shitness of Prop 13.

                                          And Prop 6 would repeal a small additional tax on petrol that's being used to fix the state's fucked up infrastructure. Carl DeMaio - who is probably the worst politician in California - is pushing this hard, complaining that the money isn't just used for roads, but it's used for bike lanes and public transport, too, so it's terrible for motorists. A brick almost went through my telly when I heard that yesterday, but fortunately I didn't have a brick.

                                          There are a couple of local gerrymandering ones, too, which are interesting.

                                          One is whether some local council districts should by default contain a large percentage of unincorporated areas - which basically means should we gerrymander in some automatically rural districts, thus giving a disproportionate say to the tax-hating loners who live in the hills.

                                          More interesting is a question of whether someone who wins over 50% in the primary needs to go to a November run-off. At the moment they don't, which makes for cheaper campaigns, marginally shorter ballot papers, and if they've already won over 50%, wouldn't they always get over 50% even if all the other votes consolidate. The local Democrats don't like this and want it to always go to the general election, because the turnout is much higher in the general than the primary, particularly among Democratic constituencies. I'm actually torn about where I stand on this. From a political perspective, I should back the Democrats. But from a financial and logical perspective, I can't see any reason to have the same election twice.

                                          There's also the battle over what happens to the old Qualcomm site - whether SDSU takes it over and builds a stadium, or whether a private Soccer-based consortium does the same thing, in the hope of luring the MLS to give us a team.

                                          And then there's the genuinely incomprehensible Prop 8, which is one of those things where you wonder how it's being asked of the public - it's about regulation of dialysis centers, which I'm sure is important, but it seems utterly bizarre that it's coming as a question in direct democracy rather than being sorted out in the statehouse.

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                                            The Controller is essentially the state’s CFO. The Board of Equilization is responsible for tax policy and collection.

                                            The competition for worst politician in CA is fierce.

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                                              Elected judges is one thing that gives me my "like a foreign country" feeling about America.

                                              Is there any way a state could scrap elections for judges?

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                                                One of Florida's amendments would restore the vote to felons

                                                https://www.tampabay.com/florida-pol...lot-explained/

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                                                  Different states have different rules as to which judgeships are elected, as well as whether partisan endorsements are allowed.

                                                  This is usually a matter regulated by the state constitution, so any changes would require a constitutional amendment, and the process for such amendments also differs by state (with states like California submitting them to referenda, as SB’s examples show).

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                                                    Our voting for judges is also non-political, and non-competitive. It's merely phrased "Shall Associate Justice Carol A Corrigan be elected to the office for the term" With a Yes/No response. 2 Supreme Court justices, 14 Court of Appeal justices, one superior court judge.

                                                    I don't even know what happens if we vote Yes on all or No on all. Can we end up with 14 justices or no justices at all?

                                                    I also have no idea how I'm meant to know about 17 different judges and have opinions on whether they deserve the job.

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