Trump's Card

[ursus arctos]

The question is whether Judge will be able to run out the clock on the FBI by going to ground or leaving the country, or whether he will just claim not to remember anything. It also is massively unclear if any investigation would include any of the other allegations.

[ursus arctos]

Here’s a list of all VP tie breaking votes

Pence set a record with six in his first year; DeVos was the first nominee to require a VP tiebreaker.

[The-Reverend]

The papers tracked him down 3 to 4 days ago, assume they will still have eyeball on him somehow. Though he would get some assistance to leave US jurisdiction I'm sure.

I wondered if the reason Flake said 'limited in time and scope to this investigation' was specifically made to not include the later allegations.

[Diable Rouge]

Yes, they only need 50 votes, as Pence will break the tie in Kavanaugh’s favour.

The usual prevarication until a mystery dip in the pork barrel restores party lines, then.

[ursus arctos]

I’m quite sure that Judge is now longer in the beach house with his Superman comics.

[Lang Spoon]

There must be so much shit on this mis-spelled Kavanagh bastard (like his drinking) even apart from sexual assault that a good muck raking tabloid could destroy the fucker even if he wriggles out of this. Would the NY Daily News send it’s attack dogs on him?

[The-Reverend]

Almost certainly not, but I'd be surprised if someone wasn't following his movements. In my experience it's quite rare to lose someone for any length of time when already under surveillance, although it can and does happen. Although maybe that's just me looking at thinks with my biased head on as I want to see Kavanaugh nixed.

[ursus arctos]

It’s worth reminding people that Flake can’t make the FBI do anything, that’s for the FBI and DOJ.

Nor is McConnnell required to wait a week. That said, he will if he doesn’t have the votes.

Judge isn’t under surveillance. Someone blabbed on him to the Washington Post.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Murkowski is "with Flake".

[Satchmo Distel]

WTF was going on here (hot mic transcription)?



I infer they don't have the votes so are waiting a week, but I don't see how Flake could morally change his vote in 7 days' time if the FBI says it needs more time. I also don't see how they can impose a timeframe on the FBI.

[Satchmo Distel]

MSNBC's Katy Tur and panel are saying this is just a figleaf to give cover to Flake, Murkowski, Manchin,* Heitkamp and Collins when they eventually vote for Kavanaugh. The FBI will have so many time constraints that the process will produce nothing - at least that's the calculus. OTOH this calculus might fail if there's a flood of new revelations and pressure from GOP voters.** It does look like these five are canvassing opinion in their states and will be swung by that rather than any nominal FBI findings.

*who has just backed Flake

**"a week is a long time in politics"

[San Bernardhinault]

I suspect that if Mitch brings it to the floor and calls Flake's bluff, Flake is voting for Kavanaugh.

Flake has only called for a one week delay so he can burnish his "maverick" credentials, but I'd be astonished if he actually voted against a conservative justice, even one who seems as intent on destroying institutional norms as Kavanaugh appeared to yesterday.

[ursus arctos]

That sounds right to me.

Rev, I realise that you are relatively new to this but "Flake" and "morally" don't really belong in the same sentence.

[Satchmo Distel]

That sounds right to me.

Rev, I realise that you are relatively new to this but "Flake" and "morally" don't really belong in the same sentence.

That was me, and I realized I'd gaffed as I typed it, which is why I now think it's pure cynical tactics by Flake.

[Nefertiti2]

Apparently even his own stupid calendar supports the dates Ford mentioned.

As so often Marcia Wheeler is the go-to person here. Also for following with informed snark on Twitter

[WOM]

So....do we know where Timmy Gaudet lived in 1982? And has the floorplan shown up on Zillow or anywhere yet?

[Satchmo Distel]

Suzanne Moore expresses the key points from yesterday well, even though the points are obvious enough. In other words it's not revelatory but well written.

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...-supreme-court

[Tubby Isaacs]

As so often Marcia Wheeler is the go-to person here. Also for following with informed snark on Twitter

Thanks. I didn't get the "never drank at weekends" thing properly before. It seemed a very odd thing to keep emphasizing at all, and very implausible for a kid. "Can't drink on a school night" is what you think when you're fed up with hangovers.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

what the hell is zillow? I mean it seems to be a internet estate agent of some sort, but what does it have to do with this disaster?

[Ginger Yellow]

But, we don’t know if Collins and Murkowkski are on board, if Flake would really vote no, nor what kind of investigation the FBI could do in a week

They investigate, say there's no basis to bring charges (lack of evidence and/or statute of limitations), and Flake et al vote yes while touting their independence.

[WOM]

what the hell is zillow? I mean it seems to be a internet estate agent of some sort, but what does it have to do with this disaster?

US real estate site that posts floorplans for resale houses (sometimes). Go-to site for "Hey, there's a narrow stairway and a guest bathroom across from the guest bedroom" type stuff.

I'm not advocating anyone do this, but...

[Sporting]

He was astonishingly unjudglike.

And the President, obviously, is astonishingly presidential!

[ursus arctos]

GY, the FBI investigation is being described as a "new background check".

"Bringing charges" isn't the standard (nor should it be, of course).

[Satchmo Distel]

They investigate, say there's no basis to bring charges (lack of evidence and/or statute of limitations), and Flake et al vote yes while touting their independence.

But many a slip between cup and lip. It's not a risk-free strategy, otherwise Kavanaugh would not have kept dodging the option when put to him yesterday (and the Dems would not have hammered on it so much).

[Ginger Yellow]

"Bringing charges" isn't the standard (nor should it be, of course).

It is as far as the GOP are concerned.