Trump's Card

[Femme Folle]

Roger Stone thinks trump is going to perjure himself when Mueller interviews him.

Yes, Captain Obvious, it's what a pathological liar does.

[anton pulisov]

It will be like taking candy from a baby.

All Mueller has to do is get Trump to boast about how he fired people.

[Ginger Yellow]

This is why Trump's lawyers are desperately trying to avoid a face to face interview with Mueller. Frankly, even if Trump isn't personally involved in any collusion, he'd probably lie to Mueller just to protect his ego over something. Though, to be fair, if you look at his deposition transcripts, he is a lot more cautious when he's under oath.

[anton pulisov]

Interesting analysis of the behind the scenes shenanigans in the Democratic party from Glenn Greenwalds' Intercept.

[Tubby Isaacs]

And those committees stacked with new centrists delivered weaker legislation than they otherwise might have. In 2009, Democrats dialed back their ambitions when it came to the size of the stimulus, the strength of Wall Street reform, and the quality and extent of coverage that would be provided by Obamacare — all in order to accommodate centrist members representing swing districts. Polls show that the ACA is not unpopular because it is too progressive; rather, its problem areas are the elements of it that are too conservative — high premiums and high deductibles.

Whatever is the right thing to do now, I think that's a bit unfair on the history there. They didn't get killed in 2010 because the stimulus was too small or Obamacare too modest. The US stimulus was easily the biggest in major economies. It was a major achievement. Passed with only 11 Democrats in the House opposing.

[Incandenza]

Wow, the Dems can still surprise me. I didn't think they would cave *this* quicky, for example:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/...n-reach-366992

Senate Democrats are willing to drop their demand that relief for Dreamers be tied to any long-term budget agreement — a potential boost for spending talks, but one that could face opposition from their House counterparts.

The shift comes in response to the deal struck between Senate leaders Monday to reopen the government and begin debate on an immigration bill next month. Meanwhile, budget negotiators are expressing optimism that a two-year agreement to lift stiff caps on defense and domestic spending is increasingly within reach.

“We’re viewing [immigration and spending] on separate terms because they are on separate paths,” Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said Tuesday.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s “procedural concession means we’ve got a deadline and a process,” Durbin added. “That to me is a significant step forward. It’s not everything I wanted, that’s for sure, but it’s a step forward.”

What a fucking chump.

[San Bernardhinault]

I normally defend them, but this is just bonkers. If they were going to do this, why have the three day shut-down at all? It makes no sense politically or strategically - it just makes the Dems look like they want to get rolled. Even if you discount the fact that they are throwing away any leverage they have on DACA, so screwing the Dreamers, it sends an absolutely shocking signal on everything else they might try and do in the future. I genuinely don't understand it.

[Incandenza]

Democrats go into every negotiation with a compromised position to hope that it will appeal to the Republicans so they can avoid a fight, then they keep caving and conceding more demands to Republicans. It happens every single time. I'm certainly not shocked that they'd do this, but like I said, I didn't think they would cave this quickly. They are milquetoast empty suits that stand for nothing. Utterly fucking useless.

They may gain a few seats here in there in November, but I see nothing right now to make me think that they'll make any difference or that they won't shoot themselves in the dick in 2020 again.

[Gerontophile]

I think someone upthread (SanB?) said the Dems will get slaughtered this year.

This is the sort of shit that will do it.

A 3 day shut down of government = a weekend. (I might have nicked that, sorry x)

They have to move to the left (and get to the centre/center), and most of all, they have to start fucking lying. Because it works for everyone else.

[Gerontophile]

AND also,

They are going to have to start some infighting to find a leader who is not Chuck (or Amy) Schumer. Which has to be timed correctly, or it will cost them this year. Also, they have to fight like fuck to win the Nevada governorship, because, that will fuck a ton of shitcunt Republicans here, and their contestants are unacceptably bad.

I am ranting a wee bit now, because I think that a certain Senator (who isn't getting grief for doing naughties) from this neck of the woods, could make a run at 2020.

[Lang Spoon]

They are so fucking shit and predictable, they still think they are dealing with rational actors instead of GOP Evil. The DNC needs to be destroyed. Fucking dicks, there will be massively reduced turnout from minorities in the mid terms and they deserve t. Sure who else would they vote for? But it’s not voting at all that fucks them even more. Why would any Hispanic voter feel like giving their vote to these cunts now? Fuck House Democrats, fuck every Bluedog cunt left standing.

[San Bernardhinault]

But the thing is - even if they're dealing with rational actors, this seems to make no sense. Even if you're entire schtick is that - unlike the other side - you believe in regular order and good governance, rather than blowing the whole shit up, then having three days of shutdown screws you. Even if you're not ideological, and don't care about the Dreamers, it makes no sense to signal to your opponents that you'll cave immediately, and with nothing. There has to be a bigger picture here, but I really can't see it.

Meanwhile, I don't think the Dems are getting slaughtered this year. It's just that the Senate is exceptionally tough this year, so nobody should expect - even if there a massive Democrat wave in the House - that the Democrats will get a Senate majority.

[Gerontophile]

Well, from my limited perspective, in the main you are correct. But the individual races are important. Impetus works for a lot, but if your candidate has been a twat, locals do tend to remember.

But that's also a problem, because when you do the big Prez vote, and when you see the other names, you think "oh, that twat, fuck him" and vote against, there is absolutely no reason for you to get out of your bed for a Midterm. 45 will still be there, and your life will still be your life.

[Gerontophile]

And, as SanB just said: the people who are up for the votes, are going to be difficult to dislodge.

Let's hope that the Pennsylvania Supreme Court decision, gets into a few other states' courts before... June?

[Tubby Isaacs]

The Republicans had their tails up with the "shut down the government to protect illegal immigrants" line, so maybe somebody's read some runes. Why those runes would say something different now to a week ago, God knows. There is a huge constituency of people for whom government shutting down sums up better than anything else that "they're all the same, just fucking sort out a deal like I do in my business every fucking day".

They'll have to keep it on the agenda somehow, and that could beg a lot of "There you go again".

[ursus arctos]

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/956609359282425857

[Tubby Isaacs]

I don't know if you'd call all of them "Blue Dogs", but it was pretty transparent that most Democrat Senators up for re-election in Red states voted with McConnell the first time. They probably weren't the only ones less than keen on this issue.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Is McConnell even going to schedule a senate vote? What happens if he doesn't? I assume there's no way the minority can schedule a "binding" vote?

[anton pulisov]

Trump wants Dreamers to become citizens.

Yep. He's gonna win in 2020.

[San Bernardhinault]

The interesting thing about that is that if it does come along, it gets Schumer out of a massive hole - suddenly (a) he's not taking DACA off the table, because it's basically solved; and (b) he can present the 3 day shutdown as a win, because now the Democrats have the two things they wanted: a DACA pathway to citizenship and full renewal and funding of CHIP.

[Satchmo Distel]

But Schumer would also be endorsing a "25% cut to legal immigration into the country" if he backs that plan. Trump would wave that as a huge win, as would Miller, whose racist fingers are all over it.

It would also be the thin end of the wedge because once the Dems are locked into supporting immigration cuts, they will be expected to back other shit along similar lines.

[ursus arctos]

45 has, of course, said this before on more than one occasion.

[Satchmo Distel]

45 has, of course, said this before on more than one occasion.

But this comes from Miller as the source, so it's not simply Trump saying some brainfart to please whomever he's talking to.

[San Bernardhinault]

Schumer, of course, has to swallow some shit in order to get a DACA deal. I think this is widely accepted. The question is what he has to swallow.

Personally, I don't mind funding the wall in exchange. $25bn is not actually that much for the US over the course of a decade. And the wall is literally just a folly. It achieves nothing but does very little harm. It's just silly. Letting Trump have something expensive but harmless in exchange for creating paths to citizenship for 2 million people still looks basically like a good deal, to me.

Ending the diversity lottery completely is, on the other hand, clearly very bad.

But in theory, we now have a starting point to negotiate. And given that this is backed by Stephen Miller, it's not like other times when Trump said similar things. This is a starting point that has Trump's most racist friends on board.

[anton pulisov]

If he gets his wall then his white white base is energised.

They probably did some polling on saving the Dreamers and the white base probably doesn't mind.

What's more, he can say he saved the Dreamers and suddenly a lot of Hispanic voters don't hate him anymore. He can tell them cryin' Chuck Schumer almost fucked it up.

The man is smarter than he appears.