Trump's Card

[Gerontophile]

Baby steps. Fuckit. I need more champagne.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Yep. Something that I read online: Clinton spent a shit ton of money in "swing stage" Ohio and lost by 8.1%. She spent not a single penny in "Republican state" Texas and lost by a similar margin: 8.9%. That tells you that things are more fluid than they would seem. Trump demonstrated as much when he broke through the "blue wall".

Texas has been ignored for a long time, but what people forget is that in 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 2000 and 2004 there was a former governor of Texas on the Republican ticket. And in 1996 Ross Perot was running. So any electoral models that incorporate those elections when predicting where to spend advertising money may be biased against Democrats: that's probably why Obama didn't bother competing there either. The last time the Democrats really competed on the ground in Texas was 1976, when it was a much, much less diverse state than it is now. And Carter won it.

edit: Texans love people from their own state. I would even go so far as to say that if the Democrats ran a Texan Democrat against Trump in 2020 that they'd take the state easily.

Romney won Texas by nearly 16 points, so not surprising they didn't go for it this time.

There are promising demographics, not just the Hispanic voters but educated whites whose employers have been attracted there from other states. There aren't really any Texan Democrats they could stick on a ticket, barring a Lazarus performance from Ann Richards.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Crikey. Clinton won Harris County (which has Houston in) by 160,000. Obama won it by less than 1,000.

[ursus arctos]

Rapidly changing demographics

As of the 2015 Texas Population Estimate Program, the population of the county was 4,530,268, non-Hispanic whites 1,323,437 (29.2%). Black Americans 817,096 (18.0%). Other non-Hispanic 395,206 (8.7%). Hispanics and Latinos (of any race) 1,994,529 (44.0%).

As of the 2010 Census, the population of the county was 4,092,459, White Americans made up 56.6% of Harris County's population; non-Hispanic whites represented 33.0% of the population. Black Americans made up 18.9% of the population. Native Americans made up 0.7% of Harris County's population. Asian Americans made up 6.2% of the population (2.0% Vietnamese, 1.2% Indian, 1.1% Chinese, 0.6% Filipino, 0.3% Korean, 0.1% Japanese, 1.0% Other). Pacific Islander Americans made up just 0.1% of the population. Individuals from other races made up 14.3% of the population; people from two or more races made up 3.2% of the county's population. Hispanics and Latinos (of any race) made up 40.8% of Harris County's population.

[Flynnie]

Democrats need to focus on energizing and turning out their base and at least casting doubt in the minds of educated suburban Republicans, particularly women.

Didn't this strategy completely fail to work in 2016?

It seems like a much better strategy would be to get the working class people who *don't* vote (which is most of them) out to the polls by getting a candidate who isn't totally milquetoast.

[Satchmo Distel]

Trump is blaming postal votes for the loss. Someone "hacked" Anderson Cooper's twitter top troll him.

[ursus arctos]

Flynnie, I have to run, but I don't think the first part was really tried in 2016, particularly as regards people of colour.

As to non-voters, it would be great if we could get them out, but I don't think it is wise to change the message in what is likely to be an unsuccessful quest.

[Sean of the Shed]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/940955920967880704




Or at least ones that haven't got form for being a predatory pervert and racist.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Pennsylvania. Good chance of a redrawn map for 2018?

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/pe...-20171211.html

[Gerontophile]

... particularly as regards people of colour.

Not only are the 'collective', wonderful, they think of others with their spelling.

I apologise for my 'white women' comment, earlier. It's pretty much white people. We vote, and lose. And when we dont get to vote, we try to empathise. And you know, send the troops in.

I put a couple of love songs up here, earlier, because I thought I was being ironic. I'm fucking not. CNN right now, is fucking crazy. And yes, it's what you think it is.

[Gerontophile]

Rosenstein is saying "Mueller stays", and I cannot run away fast enough from this.... hounding.

ARRRRRRRRROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Mr Smith is kicking ass.

[Gerontophile]

I don't normally do CNN, etc... but fucking hell, this is AU.

[Tubby Isaacs]

We watch Wolf in our house.

[ad hoc]

The real bafflingly incomprehensible Gero is back! Shoots right back to the top of the "Poster most likely to write something which you have no idea what it means" league table

(Current top 4:

1. Gero
2. Lang Spoon
3. Guy Profumo
4. Duncan Gardner )

[Gerontophile]

Mr Squirrell Chabot. Redirect, please.

[Gerontophile]

Mr hoc, I refer your good self to my previous form in the house of Idiot.

(I am watching ... stuff, and it just got turned back to the squirrel... and AU is gold)

[Gerontophile]

Anyone live in Ohio? Fuck this Chabot cunt.

[WOM]

1. Lang Spoon (although I'm getting it lately...)
2. Diable Rouge (content, not lingo...)
3. Gero (substance, see use and abuse of...)
3. Guy Profumo (?)
4. Duncan Gardner (dialect...possibly regional or political)

[Gerontophile]

Ma'am, this is not helpful, until you suggest a point.

I'm watching CNN. And it's fascinating. It's about Mueller, and whether he shouldbe fired. It's almost hilarious.

[Incandenza]

Morals voters

[Gerontophile]

OHMYGOD.... YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEES.

[Gerontophile]

Which form of Christian would you describe yourself (Rosenstein is really good.)

[Gerontophile]

Ursus: if you know any lawyer, or person about to be, you should make them see this guy saying "it might walk like a duck, it might quack like a duck, but until it's an AMERICAN duck, you can all have a tax squirrel."

Fucking Shylock. And, I mean Al Pacino's version.

*For Issa, see Farb.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Morals voters

Cheers. Any numbers for white who aren't born again Christians?

[Gerontophile]

No. They won.