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    SB, as to Mnuchin



    As to Ryan, he has been drinking at the fountain of voodoo economics so deeply, and for so long, that he may have actually convinced himself of its validity, but surely that requires setting aside the very real world experiences of Kansas, Louisiana and his home state as being somehow irrelevant.

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      Yeah, the Mnuchin report in the NYT was what convinced me that he believes the whole thing is bollocks, and won't work. That he just uses the Randian language and Laffer bollocks as a fig leaf but in reality knows it's just a handout to the rich based on government borrowing, almost literally a kleptocracy.

      I was just wondering if anyone actually genuinely believes it works. You seem to think that Ryan does, in the face of all the evidence. I know his wonkish genius is more than overplayed in the media, but is he really so immensely stupid that he actually believes it?

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        I think that Ryan believes that it is possible, in much the same way that he believes the rapture is possible.

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          As to Ryan, he has been drinking at the fountain of voodoo economics so deeply, and for so long, that he may have actually convinced himself of its validity, but surely that requires setting aside the very real world experiences of Kansas, Louisiana and his home state as being somehow irrelevant.
          This is one thing I don't get. Wisconsin had plenty of real world Trumpist shit already, and it voted for more of it?

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            You live in a Brexit bit of Wales, no?

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              Yeah, but it's not like they had people in office already tearing up trade agreements and chucking away jobs. There wasn't all that much to compare with it directly.

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                Low turnout dominated by zealots and culture warriors

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                  And gerrymandering. Lots of gerrymandering.

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                    Yeah, I know about the state elections. I meant the relatively ungerrymandered federal election for Trump. They got a load more people to vote for that.

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                      Yeah, but Scott Walker keeps winning gubernatorial elections which can't be gerrymandered. That means the Wisconsinites who vote are voting for more Randian bullshit, despite living in a place that's evidence that it doesn't work.

                      edit: so slow to post, was replying to Nef.

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                        Originally posted by Tubby Isaacs View Post
                        Yeah, but it's not like they had people in office already tearing up trade agreements and chucking away jobs. There wasn't all that much to compare with it directly.

                        Tory Austerity since 2010, and still Wales in large parts voted against its class interests again and again. I’m not sure Wisconsin and Welsh politics are that far apart.

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                          Except of course for the regional level dominance of progressives in the Welsh Parliament.
                          Last edited by Lang Spoon; 30-11-2017, 23:39.

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                            You can exclude people who you don't like from voting in a gubernatorial election too.

                            voter ID laws disproportionately reduced turnout among voters of color, young voters, and newly registered voters, who were more likely to support Democrats.
                            The burdens of voter ID fell disproportionately on low-income and minority populations,” writes Mayer. More than 20 percent of registrants coming from homes with incomes less than $25,000 say they were kept from voting by the law; 8.3 percent of white voters surveyed were deterred, compared with 27.5 percent of African Americans.

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                              Just looked up who the Democratic candidate was in the last Wisconsin governor election.

                              Mary Burke. She holds an MBA from the Harvard Business School. She is also the daughter of the owner of the Trek Bicycle Corporation, where she was parachuted into a management role.

                              Wikipedia:
                              99% of Trek bicycles are manufactured outside the United States, in countries including the Netherlands, Germany, and China
                              These people became obscenely rich by outsourcing bicycle production to China. There you have the problem with the Democratic party in a nutshell. The people of Wisconsin are perhaps not as stupid as they are made out to be.
                              Last edited by anton pulisov; 30-11-2017, 23:47.

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                                Originally posted by Lang Spoon View Post
                                Tory Austerity since 2010, and still Wales in large parts voted against its class interests again and again. I’m not sure Wisconsin and Welsh politics are that far apart.
                                The bus didn't say "Tory austerity" on it.

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                                  The bus essentially said, "blame external factor X for your problems here at home".

                                  Tories make life shit for people. Then dog whistle that it is the fault of brown people, the EU, the Irish, whatever... and then they pick up votes from the very people whose lives they are making shit.

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                                    Originally posted by antoine polus View Post
                                    Just looked up who the Democratic candidate was in the last Wisconsin governor election.

                                    Mary Burke. She holds an MBA from the Harvard Business School. She is also the daughter of the owner of the Trek Bicycle Corporation, where she was parachuted into a management role.

                                    Wikipedia:


                                    These people became obscenely rich by outsourcing bicycle production to China. There you have the problem with the Democratic party in a nutshell. The people of Wisconsin are perhaps not as stupid as they are made out to be.
                                    How do I get "obscenely rich by outsourcing to China"? Don't I have to build a business up or anything?

                                    You missed out the bit on Wiki where it said she worked for McKinsey. So she's likely not been "parachuted" in.

                                    They're a Wisconsin-based company with 1,800 employees. That's a fairly serious company. But it's bad because they import the bikes?

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                                      http://www.politifact.com/wisconsin/...icycles-overs/

                                      "The bottom line is there is no major bicycle production in the U.S.," said Marc Sani, writer and former publisher of Bicycle Retailer & Industry News. "It left when Schwinn went to China in the 1980s. That was the beginning of the end."

                                      Trek and other U.S.-based bicycle companies have little or no choice but to build product in cheaper venues overseas in order to compete globally, Sani said.
                                      But Trek's bad, because it should make bikes in Wisconsin and it's their fault there's not a massive factory in Wisconsin now.

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                                        How do I get "obscenely rich by outsourcing to China"? Don't I have to build a business up or anything?
                                        Sure, you could start by building small computers in a garage in California. And before you know it you are selling Chinese made iPhones to the masses and funnelling the profits through Ireland.

                                        You missed out the bit on Wiki where it said she worked for McKinsey. So she's likely not been "parachuted" in.
                                        So you think she would have been a high level manager at Trek if she hadn't been the daughter of the owner? Or gone to Harvard business school? Or even started her career as a consultant at McKinsey? How does one start their career as a consultant? I thought consultants consulted based on actual experience.

                                        They're a Wisconsin-based company with 1,800 employees. That's a fairly serious company. But it's bad because they import the bikes?
                                        It's not a morality thing. Let's say you are an unemployed union factory worker in Wisconsin. On one hand you have a scumbag Republican, the type of person who you, as a union member, would never ever fucking vote for. On the other hand you have the Democratic candidate, who actually outsources factory jobs like yours to China so that they can avoid worrying about expensive shit like pensions and health and safety.

                                        It's not an easy choice, is it?

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                                          But Trek's bad, because it should make bikes in Wisconsin and it's their fault there's not a massive factory in Wisconsin now.
                                          They may have been following a global trend, yes. Indeed, they may not be the ones who actually chose to make the world the way it is today.

                                          But it is what it is, and I can understand why it wouldn't play well in the US rust belt.

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                                            Trouble in paradise. It looks like the "dynamic score"* released by the congressional committee on taxation has come in with a cost of over $1tn, and that the tax cut will not increase growth by more than 1%, which means that GDP (and therefore government receipts) are going to massively lag the growth in the debt. This was enough to bother Bob Corker, and get to questions about the "Trigger".

                                            Now, though, it looks like the Senate Parliamentarian isn't going to allow the Trigger in the bill at all under reconciliation rules (which, as I said about 3 pages ago, seemed likely all along but nobody seemed to mention). Which means that to appease Corker and Flake and the deficit hawks, they are probably going to have to put a tax rise into the bill towards the end of the 10 year window. Which... well... you know that's not going to go down well.

                                            They'll probably find a solution, but they're in a bit of a mess at this hour.


                                            * this is the score that actually takes into account the idea that growth magically happens from tax cuts, rather than just the straight up cost; I don't believe they ever do the same costing of the amount of growth that comes from increasing government spending...

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                                              Originally posted by antoine polus View Post
                                              They may have been following a global trend, yes. Indeed, they may not be the ones who actually chose to make the world the way it is today.

                                              But it is what it is, and I can understand why it wouldn't play well in the US rust belt.
                                              I agree with you there. But Republicans never get held responsible for it. I don't know how many of these jobs they still have are in Wisconsin, but not every firm keep their onshore jobs in the rust belt.
                                              Last edited by Tubby Isaacs; 01-12-2017, 00:29.

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                                                Originally posted by San Bernardhinault View Post
                                                Trouble in paradise. It looks like the "dynamic score"* released by the congressional committee on taxation has come in with a cost of over $1tn, and that the tax cut will not increase growth by more than 1%, which means that GDP (and therefore government receipts) are going to massively lag the growth in the debt. This was enough to bother Bob Corker, and get to questions about the "Trigger".

                                                Now, though, it looks like the Senate Parliamentarian isn't going to allow the Trigger in the bill at all under reconciliation rules (which, as I said about 3 pages ago, seemed likely all along but nobody seemed to mention). Which means that to appease Corker and Flake and the deficit hawks, they are probably going to have to put a tax rise into the bill towards the end of the 10 year window. Which... well... you know that's not going to go down well.

                                                They'll probably find a solution, but they're in a bit of a mess at this hour.


                                                * this is the score that actually takes into account the idea that growth magically happens from tax cuts, rather than just the straight up cost; I don't believe they ever do the same costing of the amount of growth that comes from increasing government spending...
                                                Lucky McCain's already voting for the package. Could he reconsider? Corker?

                                                Not that I put much store in Corker, but he's got a nice media career waiting for him if he sets himself up as they guy who didn't vote for this stuff. Probably not as much worth his while as supporting it and then going after lobbying work.

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                                                  Originally posted by antoine polus View Post
                                                  How does one start their career as a consultant? I thought consultants consulted based on actual experience.
                                                  Hahahaha! I know almost no consultant from McKinsey, Bain or the rest who has any real world experience. A lot of them later went on to get "proper" jobs high up the management chain in industry; but nobody goes the other way.

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                                                    Originally posted by San Bernardhinault View Post
                                                    Hahahaha! I know almost no consultant from McKinsey, Bain or the rest who has any real world experience. A lot of them later went on to get "proper" jobs high up the management chain in industry; but nobody goes the other way.
                                                    What consulting do these consultants actually consult about?

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