Trump's Card

[Tubby Isaacs]

So anybody else going to suggest anything, or is it just laugh at me time?

I don't think I'm being blythly optimistic really. I think circumstances are reasonably favourable, and they need to worry a lot if they win by a small margin.

[San Bernardhinault]

I didn't do that though, did I? I offered a reason why the particular Democratic areas ought to turnout better than they usually do in odd number years.

I could offer you a reason why Democratic turnout will be low, and why Republican turn-out will be high.

You could argue that Northam is a blank face, he doesn't get the hardcore motivated because he's basically a centrist while the activists are now all Sandernistas. That there's no real reason for anyone to come out and vote, that the gerrymandered districts are all happy still. The Loudoun and Fauquier county environs of Virginia are still living it large out of the thoroughly undrained swamp, happy in particular at the proposed new defence spending.

Meanwhile, the good ol' boys from South and Western Virginia are massively pissed off at the Libtards who're trying to destroy their heritage. Gillespie is going to stand up for them, and remind everyone that Robert E Lee was one of the greatest Virginians. They all have a reason to vote, and these are the guys who turn out election after election, unlike the lazy Democrats who only get motivated when Barack Obama is top of the ticket.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I for one was just playing around in a spirit of pessimism. Democrats are feeling pretty nervous about it.

Laugh at me any time you like.

[San Bernardhinault]

If I were predicting, I'd predict a moderate turnout across the state for Democrats, nothing spectacular. I'd predict that the few Republicans left in NOVA and Richmond and even Norfolk will stay home, but that the ones in the low population density counties in the Appalachians will still show up. And that there'll be a relatively unimpressive Democrat win which largely reflects the polling.

(But I don't want to predict, and I don't want to claim that it should be a big Democratic win, because we have no idea what the paradigm is now).

[Tubby Isaacs]

I could offer you a reason why Democratic turnout will be low, and why Republican turn-out will be high.

You could argue that Northam is a blank face, he doesn't get the hardcore motivated because he's basically a centrist while the activists are now all Sandernistas. That there's no real reason for anyone to come out and vote, that the gerrymandered districts are all happy still. The Loudoun and Fauquier county environs of Virginia are still living it large out of the thoroughly undrained swamp, happy in particular at the proposed new defence spending.

Meanwhile, the good ol' boys from South and Western Virginia are massively pissed off at the Libtards who're trying to destroy their heritage. Gillespie is going to stand up for them, and remind everyone that Robert E Lee was one of the greatest Virginians. They all have a reason to vote, and these are the guys who turn out election after election, unlike the lazy Democrats who only get motivated when Barack Obama is top of the ticket.

Interesting theory. Would they come out much more than normal because of the Confederacy stuff?

The gerrymandering was there in 2013 though, wasn't it? And the Republicans aren't bothering in lots of places.

[Tubby Isaacs]

If I were predicting, I'd predict a moderate turnout across the state for Democrats, nothing spectacular. I'd predict that the few Republicans left in NOVA and Richmond and even Norfolk will stay home, but that the ones in the low population density counties in the Appalachians will still show up. And that there'll be a relatively unimpressive Democrat win which largely reflects the polling.

(But I don't want to predict, and I don't want to claim that it should be a big Democratic win, because we have no idea what the paradigm is now).

Northam won the Lieutenant Governor election pretty handily. But I suppose there could be all sorts of reasons for that.

That's another thing I don't get. Lieutenant Governors, and elections for them.

[San Bernardhinault]

Interesting theory. Would they come out much more than normal because of the Confederacy stuff?

They'll come out as much as normal. The Republican turnout won't be as depressed as many are suggesting. There's an argument doing the rounds that the failures on healthcare and the fact that not a single thing has got passed in the last 12 months will demoralise Republicans and they'll stay at home. I don't think so, and what might get them voting out is because the Republicans are painting a Democratic win, and a Democratic Virginia, as being a place that tears down statues and will trample their culture. Gillespie has explicitly gone after this in his campaigning.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Yeah, I've seen bits about the campaign, looks appalling. I suppose it makes sense for Gillespie to run on statues rather than Obamacare or whatever.

There are something like 42,000 ex-felons who were barred from voting but had rights restored and are registered to vote. Could be interesting.

[San Bernardhinault]

That's the thing. There are all kinds of dynamics at play. It's very hard to know what's going to go on. It could be a total blow-out by the Democrats. Gillespie might sneak it. As a single race which is based around local politics, it's not necessarily indicative of anything bigger than what's happening in Virginia.

[ursus arctos]

Lieutenant Governors primarily exist because it is not unusual for Governors to run for higher office while still serving, given that they are only expected to resign after being elected to their new position. As a result, you have people like Chris Christie, who spent less than a month in New Jersey in calendar 2016. They are generally elected as part of a party ticket with the Governor, though that isn’t true in all states, and it isn’t unusual for lieutenants to fall out with their former running mates.

[San Bernardhinault]

Meanwhile, a little interesting side story is Rand Paul. He was attacked by his neighbour a few days ago. Today, that neighbour's attorney said "It was a very regrettable dispute between two neighbors over a matter that most people would regard as trivial." I desperately want to know what that was.

Meanwhile, Paul has 5 broken ribs, 2 lung contusions, can hardly walk, can't fly, and certainly can't work for a few weeks.

Which means the Senate has shifted very slightly, to 51-48. Actually, it might be 50-48 because Thad Cochran keeps missing votes because he's not well.

Although on tax reform Paul was such an unreliable vote that it might not really be a problem for McConnell.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Ah, thanks.

Christie really got hurt by being out of state so much, I see.

[ursus arctos]

The Rand Paul story is bizarre.

His neighbour is a wealthy anesthesiologist, and the current story is that the dispute involved landscaping. Paul was assaulted while mowing his lawn.

[Amor de Cosmos]

Politically I'm about as far away from Wente as you can get, but she's pretty much spot on here.

[Femme Folle]

Here's what I think the Paul thing is about--I think the neighbor planted some sort of decorative plants somewhere very near the property line and Paul mowed them down with his lawn mower while listening to headphones. It probably wasn't the first time, and he probably couldn't hear the neighbor shouting at him "HEY, ASSHOLE, YOU JUST RAN OVER MY WIFE'S PRIZED FLOWERBED". The neighbor was sick and tired of Paul's attitude of entitlement, so he snapped.

I can't really say that I blame him, although I don't condone violence, even against people like Paul.

[Gerontophile]

Just out of interest, is the voting in Virginia electronic, or with a pencil? Because, the outcome depends on it.

[ursus arctos]

It differs by county, but they decertified touch screen machines in September

[Tubby Isaacs]

I'm going to be a naive bastard again, but I can't believe that you can have different rules in different counties.

[ursus arctos]

We have different consumption tax rates in different counties.

[Tubby Isaacs]

They compete on state aid too?

[ursus arctos]

Yes, usually through the mechanism of "business development districts" where extra tax revenues are devoted to allegedly "job creating" projects.

Sports stadia being the most common, but they are also used for public transport and infrastructure projects.

[Tubby Isaacs]

And that's the Trump Infrastructure Plan?

If it exists in anything like a plan form.

[Ginger Yellow]

At the moment there is no Trump infrastructure plan. To the extent it was fleshed out in the campaign, it was basically tax breaks, deregulation of procurement and privatisation/PPPs.

[San Bernardhinault]

I still find the whole different voting rules in different counties thing to be very, very bizarre. If you want a fair democracy, surely you decide what's fair and use that system. Otherwise you are, by definition, admitting that some people vote under different rules and therefore have different results. It blows my mind. (Not as much as Obamacare plans being different in different counties, of course, which is monstrously nuts).

[Amor de Cosmos]

Basically it's federalism. It's fairly similar in Canada. Mostly trivial stuff — Saskatchewan can opt out of Summer time — but other times it's rank crazy. Like not being able to import Ontario products into BC, and vice-versa.