Trump's Card

[Tubby Isaacs]

What chance de-gerrying being done by the mid-terms?

[Nefertiti2]

Why it's (very) bad news for Sessions

[San Bernardhinault]

What chance de-gerrying being done by the mid-terms?

0%

Redistricting only happens - in theory - to keep the same numbers of electors in each district; so it only happens after every census; next census is in 2020, so next redistricting is 2021/22. Nothing will happen before 2018 or 2020 elections, but we're at the point that winning congressional districts, and more importantly state legislature and governor elections, will begin to impact who is in charge for the next redistricting. 2018 sees a load of governorships up for election - something like 35, or which 25 are currently Republicans, so a wave election in 2018 would be very good news in this regard.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Could in theory a federal law be passed that limited the scope of states to gerrymander? Or would that be "states rights"?

[San Bernardhinault]

The chances of a federal law being passed are 0%. It would need a veto proof majority in the senate and the president to sign it.

There's a chance that the Supreme Court might rule that Wisconsin's gerrymander is illegal and that there is a remedy. But even if it does that, at best it unwinds Wisconsin and maybe a couple of the other most extreme gerrymanders. And I don't know what the timescale is for those states to redraw their districts. It might be years.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I'm sure you're right, but this is all incredibly depressing. Not least that a law against gerrymandering could be a party political matter.

[ursus arctos]

Tell us about it . . .

[Tubby Isaacs]

I thought we were hard done by when the Tories moaned about about the boundary commissioners after the 2010 election.

Still, they managed to do the Lib Dems up like kippers, so all was well in the end.

[Nefertiti2]

in the white house....

ut Trump’s anger Monday was visible to those who interacted with him, and the mood in the corridors of the White House was one of weariness and fear of the unknown. As the president groused upstairs, many staffers — some of whom have hired lawyers to help them navigate Mueller’s investigation — privately speculated about where the special counsel might turn next.

“The walls are closing in,” said one senior Republican in close contact with top staffers who spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak candidly. “Everyone is freaking out.”

Trump is also increasingly agitated by the expansion of Mueller’s probe into financial issues beyond the 2016 campaign and about the potential damage to him and his family.

This portrait of Trump and his White House on a day of crisis is based on interviews with 20 senior administration officials, Trump friends and key outside allies, many of whom insisted on anonymity to discuss sensitive internal matters.

seems to me that the sheer unpredictability of Trump and the certainty that more will come out, and that noone knows what Mueller already has means that things may implode very quickly now. If they don't implode America is in political stasis for the next three and quarter years

[ursus arctos]

Massive tax cuts for the rich and the midterm elections are the inflection points here.

If they somehow lose the House (Which is extraordinarily difficult, given the structural advantages they have created), impeachment is close to certain.

If they can’t give the donor class what they paid for, they may lose them.

[San Bernardhinault]

But also, if they do pass the massive tax cuts, then the Republicans have no reason to keep Trump around. They'll get nothing else done with him in office, so at that point they might cut him loose. They can't throw him under the bus until after he's signed off on the tax cuts, so to an extent holding out on this might be the only leverage he has.

[Nefertiti2]

Analysis by the Lawfare Instititute

We will say this: Mueller’s opening bid is a remarkable show of strength. He has a cooperating witness from inside the campaign’s interactions with the Russians. And he is alleging not mere technical infractions of law but astonishing criminality on the part of Trump’s campaign manager, a man who also attended the Trump Tower meeting.

[Guy Profumo]

What was that?

Executive, Legislature, and Judiciary?

Oh well.

Fake constitution:


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-41848151

[ursus arctos]

He’s comprised the prosecution there.

Justice must be livid with him.

[Tubby Isaacs]

He had 33% approval with Gallup the other day.

[ursus arctos]

There’s a lot going on today.

[caja-dglh]

I think they basically leaked the Fed Chair because it was going to get plowed by the tax plan.

[Satchmo Distel]

He's comprised the prosecution there.

Typo? You mean the terrorist now has a Get Out Of Jail Free Card?

But if he walks away from this on that technicality, where does he go?

[Amor de Cosmos]

That last line about the DNC being, effectively, "owned" by the Clinton campaign explains a good deal about the non-competitive nature of their primaries.

[Lang Spoon]

Yep. A clusterfuck. Thanks again, DNC!

[Satchmo Distel]

Can Sanders take this further? He was cheated of a level playing field at the very least.

[Amor de Cosmos]

Who's financing the DNC these days? Not Bill and Hillary I hope.

[Lang Spoon]

Sweet Jesus, buying in Chelsea for the 2020 senate races. She’d be wasting her talents serving time in the House, or in State politics, obviously.

[Lang Spoon]

Do the Dems not in try in Governor/State Legislature elections anymore? Would seem more worthwhile trying to build a nationwide base than throwing everything a few swing states for DC very few years (and miserably coming up short half the time, cos the fucking Repubs have their cunty troops occupying far too many of the elected roles beneath the Federal level).

[ursus arctos]

You figure, huh?