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    It's a pretty big deal for Raytheon shareholders.

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      talking of Raytheon...

      https://twitter.com/SolHughesWriter/status/1052207415574388736

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        Originally posted by Antepli Ejderha View Post
        Is pulling out of the nuclear deal with Russia more than a symbolic big deal?
        Leaving it in would be a lot more painful, but yet, enjoyable.

        OK, as you were.

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          https://twitter.com/igorvolsky/status/1054006833986355201?s=21

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            Bindel and linehan types will no doubt be applauding that.

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              The Trumpy strategy is getting more and more Trumpy. It seems to have literally only become about appealing to people on right wing message boards who can shout about Libtards Getting Triggered. The administration seems to care about nothing else at all, now. It's a super-narrow turnout game.

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                See also the rallies. It is all designed to feed his insatiable ego.

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                  it's also about appealing to their armed violent and dangerous base and ensuring a gerrymandered majority in House and Senate protected by an already gerrymandered Supreme Court

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                    On the plus side, no obvious bounce for the godawful Rick Scott from the hurricane. I suppose he and Bill Nelson have been around long enough that most people will have made up their minds. All in the turnout.

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                      The even more godawful Kris Kobach looks to be leading but not by all that much. Doubtless he's pulled a few more Dodge City-type strokes that haven't been spotted yet.

                      If he wins, he can't follow through on Brownback tax cuts, can he? Even the Republicans in the statehouse have seen the clusterfuck that this would bring.
                      Last edited by Tubby Isaacs; 21-10-2018, 15:54.

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                        Originally posted by Tubby Isaacs View Post
                        On the plus side, no obvious bounce for the godawful Rick Scott from the hurricane. I suppose he and Bill Nelson have been around long enough that most people will have made up their minds. All in the turnout.
                        Stop focusing on polls.

                        And if you do look at them, at least check the dates on the polling. There's only been one FL poll released that actually did the polling post hurricane, which did show a slight bounce for Scott. But it's a single poll so is probably worth very little.

                        Remember, also, that it's going to be very hard to poll the panhandle right now, and that is generally a more Republican leaning part of the state, so take everything coming out of Florida with pinches of salt.

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                          I'm not just looking at polls, predictions etc. If I were, I'd be less pessimistic.

                          I'll take a small bounce for Scott as less bad than I expected though. I had a vision of him being all over the television in the whole state, but fair point about the pan handle.

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                            Immediately after saying that, I see that there is a very good poll for Democrats in Florida from CNN released today. Still, usual caveats - one poll, and inevitably untrustworthy polling.

                            I know you're excited about the Senate race here, Tubbs, but arguably the gubernatorial race is more important. There's a big story this week about Scott's plan to replace three Florida Supreme Court justices after his term expires (they are forced out of office because of their age on the same day that the new governor gets sworn in). This plan has now been declared illegal, so Scott doesn't get to pack the court. If DeSantis wins, he'll just put Scott's guys on the court. But if Gillum wins, basically, we'll probably have justices in office who won't reinforce illegal gerrymanders over the next decade.
                            Last edited by San Bernardhinault; 21-10-2018, 16:56.

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                              Oh my Christ, there's always something appalling one doesn't know, is there?

                              I had a look earlier and saw that even if Gillum wins, it's hard to get Medicaid expanded, and sort of shrugged. I'm now giving the governorship due attention.

                              The ballot iniative on felon disenfranchisement is also very important, of course.

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                                For some reason this opened on the first page ion the thread instead of the last

                                it has a check list- I thought it would be worth seeing How Trump is doing

                                1) Tank the economy by starting trade wars

                                Well in hand

                                2) Destroy the environment - poison the water, blacken the sky, cut down all the trees, cook the planet. Sell off all the public lands in the west to resource strippers (not on there, but it's going to happen).

                                Well in Hand

                                3) Deport everyone

                                Well In Hand

                                4) Appoint a fascist to the supreme court. End RvW, bring back Jim Crow
                                Part one DONE
                                5) Privatize medicare - so, eliminate it, basically. And social security.


                                6) Let 20m+ people rot without insurance

                                7) Cut taxes for your friends

                                DONE

                                8) Balloon the debt

                                9) Drive up interest rates

                                10) Hand out tons of pork-barrel infrastructure and military projects to Republicans

                                DONE

                                11) Make sure none of our former allies or enemies want to talk to us. Except maybe Putin

                                FORGOT SAUDIS ISRAEL AND UK
                                12) Tell Mexico they have to pay for a wall, which they won't.

                                DONE

                                13) So...invade Mexico?

                                14) Full scale assault on minorities, especially Muslims. Hopefully some civilized countries will take them in.

                                15) Do untold damage to our universities and high-tech companies by bringing immigration to a halt.

                                16) Nuke Iran.

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                                  On the gender issue, my understanding was that the federal government only has limited power to impose a definition and that progressive states could still have their own. However, this still leaves trans and intersex people in conservative states totally unprotected.

                                  The admin's claim that it is backed by science is simply a lie. Research on intersex is conclusive that a significant number of people are born neither male nor female. Gender OTOH is a social construction and anyone who denies that is smoking the same crack as evolution deniers.

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                                    Florida just cannot be predicted. It was supposed to be in the bag for HRC in 2016 even to the point where there was total incredulity when the early results came in. I wouldn't even trust exit polls on Florida.

                                    My gut feeling is that Florida will keep moving rightwards until Latino demographic growth reaches critical mass, which is taking longer than expected. One good thing is that the complacency which affected the Dems in 2016 won't be repeated - but this still doesn't make me confident that young blacks and Latinos will turn out. Anecdotally they seem to think the move towards fascism won't affect them so long as they have their papers and their dumbed down school qualifications.

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                                      Florida was my big "we're in trouble here" moment in 2016 too.

                                      You've scared me with your local knowledge there.

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                                        My gut feeling is that Florida will keep moving rightwards until Latino demographic growth reaches critical mass, which is taking longer than expected. One good thing is that the complacency which affected the Dems in 2016 won't be repeated - but this still doesn't make me confident that young blacks and Latinos will turn out. Anecdotally they seem to think the move towards fascism won't affect them so long as they have their papers and their dumbed down school qualifications.
                                        It could also be the case that the Dems just don't do it for them.

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                                          Ha ha. Ben Sasse.

                                          https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...rter-ben-sasse

                                          Donald Trump was being “playful” when he praised a Montana congressman who assaulted a Guardian reporter, said a Republican senator whose new book sets out to “heal” America’s glaring political divide.

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                                            The second half of that sentence might be funnier than the first. "We could totally heal America's political divide if only the Democrats were more bispartisan and stopped being so confrontational, and stopped opposing the complete destruction of the welfare and judicial safety nets. I am showing the way already, by saying a few things when Trump gets very unpleasant, but completely going along with his entire agenda."

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                                              That kind of asinine comment has caught on big-time. It's like the Left are just as bad as the Right trope. There's a guy up here called David Chilton who self-published a 'how-you-too-can-become-rich' book back in the 80s called The Wealthy Barber. It sold shed-loads and he's parlayed it in all kinds of other financial advice schemes. Interviewed on the radio last week about politics, he opined that "The trouble is everything has been pushed to extremes, either extreme left, or extreme right." At which I'm banging on the steering wheel, shrieking "What!... What!... You unscrupulous fucker! Show me an extreme left wing government... anywhere!... come on you bastard name one... just one... right now! But no one ever challenges that kind of shit. Drives me mental.

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                                                Originally posted by anton pulisov View Post
                                                It could also be the case that the Dems just don't do it for them.
                                                Certainly the Clinton version doesn't. Rugged individualism is a big thing down here and perceived Dem elites are hated. But the cities are truly multicultural and that's our best hope, that their culture keeps spreading outwards, provided the Dems can take advantage of that and get the vote out. Maybe they'll surprise us? But they were piss-poor in 2016.

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                                                  Originally posted by Satchmo Distel View Post
                                                  Certainly the Clinton version doesn't. Rugged individualism is a big thing down here and perceived Dem elites are hated. But the cities are truly multicultural and that's our best hope, that their culture keeps spreading outwards, provided the Dems can take advantage of that and get the vote out. Maybe they'll surprise us? But they were piss-poor in 2016.
                                                  Hmmmm, not sure I agree with you there.

                                                  Black people have specific issues and when they look at the Democrats all they hear is Planned parenthood and LBGT rights. Do you hear any prominent politician going on about police brutality or White Supremacists harassing people going about their daily business. As for the Latinos, they can never be relied upon to vote Democrats, especially in Florida.

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                                                    There are many black LGBT people and women who need those rights, but it is true obviously that most Democrat careerists see Black Lives Matters as to the left of where they want to "pivot". OTOH I think Obama did mention "police brutality or White Supremacists harassing people", at least in his own equivocal way, but it seems that white Democrats are reluctant to go there. It would need another Obama-like figure to emerge before we see that bridge crossed.

                                                    Although I share your pessimism for black turnout in Florida, are there not hopeful signs in Georgia and N Carolina?

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