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    To paraphrase Father Ted, how do these people end up writing for newspapers? Collect twelve crisp packets and become a columnist.

    Regarding income, this guy is looking at absolute numbers and saying that rich people favoured the Republican and poor people favoured the Democrat.

    But as has been pointed out before, while Clinton might have scraped home in the poorest income categories, they were also the categories that showed the biggest swing away from Obama's 2012 numbers. A 16% swing in the <$30,000 category.

    Elections are won and lost in the swing.

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      Nicholas Carnes is an assistant professor of public policy at the Sanford School of Public Policy at Duke University. He is the author of White-Collar Government: The Hidden Role of Class in Economic Policy Making (University of Chicago Press, 2013).

      Noam Lupu is an associate professor of political science at Vanderbilt University. He is the author of Party Brands in Crisis: Partisanship, Brand Dilution, and the Breakdown of Political Parties in Latin America (Cambridge University Press, 2016).
      "Columnists".

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        Frank's being ploughing this line for years, because it's true. I've been reading his stuff for 20 years and whilst he's got a streak of know-it-all ism a mile wide, he does happen to know more than, say, the entire fucking leadership of the DNC and the DLC.

        Trump hasn't, as far as I've read, said Trump won over the majority of working class former democrats. But Trump did win enough of them, in certain places, for that to make a massive difference. He did so despite people telling the fucking sensibles that they were courting a disstaer. The sensible dis nothing about it. They now seek to cover their enormous potentially civilisation-ending cock-up but acting like Donald Sutherland at the end of Invasion of the fucking body snatchers and bots. I'm sure there are some on the left who are dismissive of the Russian story as the alt-right for entirely different reason, but it would seem that the DNC-sanctioned story precludes it being the case that the Russians tried very hard to interfere, and succeeded in many ways, and also the DNC to have shot itself in the foot becasue of enough chickens coming nhome to roost to sort out KFC's supply problems isn't allowed.

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          A swing is a swing. But if you lose a group, you pretty much by definition haven't been swept into power by them.

          The extent of Trump's working class support has been exaggerated, all along.

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            "One Market Under God" was a cracking read.

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              Originally posted by NHH View Post
              Frank's being ploughing this line for years, because it's true. I've been reading his stuff for 20 years and whilst he's got a streak of know-it-all ism a mile wide, he does happen to know more than, say, the entire fucking leadership of the DNC and the DLC.

              Trump hasn't, as far as I've read, said Trump won over the majority of working class former democrats. But Trump did win enough of them, in certain places, for that to make a massive difference. He did so despite people telling the fucking sensibles that they were courting a disstaer. The sensible dis nothing about it. They now seek to cover their enormous potentially civilisation-ending cock-up but acting like Donald Sutherland at the end of Invasion of the fucking body snatchers and bots. I'm sure there are some on the left who are dismissive of the Russian story as the alt-right for entirely different reason, but it would seem that the DNC-sanctioned story precludes it being the case that the Russians tried very hard to interfere, and succeeded in many ways, and also the DNC to have shot itself in the foot becasue of enough chickens coming nhome to roost to sort out KFC's supply problems isn't allowed.
              Most people think Clinton made mistakes. But that doesn't justify the "yawn" tone of that Frank article about "Russian bots", or his implication that the media's up in arms on Clinton's behalf. It isn't. You'd see far more "hysteria" from Republicans and media if it was Trump who'd lost out. Not impossible he'd have actually called for a literal coup d'etat. You wouldn't get many people saying Trump ought to look at the mistakes he made in the campaign.

              Trump lies all the time, so what he says and doesn't say, is besides the point. But he's surely, with media connivance (the same media supposedly hysterical about Clinton losing) been able to present them as being his typical voters?

              Frank's big thing seems to be trade. But it's not clear to me that he knows anything about it. In that piece linked to from my piece, he says "all the arguments over trade that we’ve had in this country since the early 1990s, all the sweet words from our economists about the scientifically proven benevolence of free trade". Economists have a variety of views, and it's like he's proud of not reading any of them. One section on him seeing Trump talk about trade is laughable.

              Yes, Donald Trump talked about trade. In fact, to judge by how much time he spent talking about it, trade may be his single biggest concern – not white supremacy. Not even his plan to build a wall along the Mexican border, the issue that first won him political fame. He did it again during the debate on 3 March: asked about his political excommunication by Mitt Romney, he chose to pivot and talk about … trade.

              It seems to obsess him: the destructive free-trade deals our leaders have made, the many companies that have moved their production facilities to other lands, the phone calls he will make to those companies’ CEOs in order to threaten them with steep tariffs unless they move back to the US.
              "Single biggest concern"? I mean, if Frank wants to gloat at Paul Krugman about being wrong (like he did last month), he needs to fess up to this one pretty quick. Not to mention that Trump was lying, and lots of people who do know what they're talking about think that if Trump did do the full protectionism, it would be an economic disaster.
              Last edited by Tubby Isaacs; 23-02-2018, 20:31.

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                Originally posted by antoine polus View Post
                To paraphrase Father Ted, how do these people end up writing for newspapers? Collect twelve crisp packets and become a columnist.

                Regarding income, this guy is looking at absolute numbers and saying that rich people favoured the Republican and poor people favoured the Democrat.

                But as has been pointed out before, while Clinton might have scraped home in the poorest income categories, they were also the categories that showed the biggest swing away from Obama's 2012 numbers. A 16% swing in the <$30,000 category.

                Elections are won and lost in the swing.
                #It don't mean a thing, if you ain't got that swing#

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                  Been reminded Trump supported a $10 minimum wage.

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                    Originally posted by Tubby Isaacs View Post
                    "Columnists".
                    I have to explain the basic principles of statistics to professors every day.

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                      Has anyone tried to measure Trump's mental decline? He has been verbally incontinent for a while so can we say he is any worse than he was 10 years ago? Maybe his cognitive dissonance is just who he is, and the Presidency has just exposed this?

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                        See I don't know if it is mental decline, or just a case of someone having to talk about subjects that were outside of his incredibly narrow range of interests.

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                          True, It's like Roy Chubby Brown becoming Prime Minister.

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                            The frontal lobes also control speech, and over the years, Donald Trump’s fluency has regressed and his vocabulary contracted. In May of last year, the journalist Sharon Begley at Stat analyzed changes in his speech patterns during interviews over the years. She noted that in the 1980s and 1990s, Trump used phrases like “a certain innate intelligence” and “These are the only casinos in the United States that are so rated.” I would add, “I think Jesse Jackson has done himself very proud.”
                            From this Atlantic piece on his neurological health

                            The differences in his vocabulary and syntax over the last 25 years or so are very striking.

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                              that article that reed linked to the other day pointed out that a lot of it could do with him switching his news consumption from the NY times, (when he had to sound plausible to New York rich people) to Fox and friends. You're not going to know without a scan. He's one of the most extraordinarily weird people ever to walk shoe leather. I'm pretty sure that I've never met anyone remotely like him, and I've met Newt Gingrich and had pints with Jorg Haider, (who became extremely interested in Garcia, inviting him to visit him in Carinthia.)

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                                Californian Democrats have refused to back Diane Feinstein for reelection.

                                On a side note, what's with the US media pronouncing "-stein" names to rhyme with teen? Shouldn't the vowel should be like the sound in pine? It comes from German, right?

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                                    Also this, from William Safire

                                    What about steen and stine ? Is there any rhyme or reason to the chosen pronunciation? Everyone named Stein, and Stein alone, pronounces the name stine . Stein is a stein is a stein, as Gertrude used to say. Yet Andrew Stein, Borough President of Manhattan, and soon to be a candidate for Congress from the ''silk-stocking district,'' has an industrialist father named Jerry Finkles tein, who pronounces the last syllable steen . When son Andrew shortened the name, the pronunciation automatically shifted.

                                    Here are a few stines : John Steinbeck, Albert Einstein, Gloria Steinem, Mayor Dianne Feinstein; the ''eye'' pronunciation of the ei can also be heard in the names of Dwight Eisenhower, Carl Reiner, Caspar Weinberger and Barbra (only two a 's) Streisand.

                                    Now here are a few steens : Leonard Bernstein, Carl Bernstein, Robert Brustein. Gambler Nicky Arnstein married Fanny Brice, played by Barbra Streisand, in a confusing ee-eye-o.

                                    A pattern is seen by John Algeo, professor of English at the University of Georgia. ''The German names are usually pronounced with an eye sound. Most of the Jewish names have had the American influence of the ee sound, as in the words weird or receive , particularly that ei after the letter c .'' Professor Algeo notes that, in Yiddish, a sound change occurred, with the ei pronounced as a long a , as in stain , but changed in American-influenced Yiddish to ee . ''The ending of stein , pronounced steen ,'' he concludes, ''reflects an American influence.''

                                    From this, we can formulate Stein's Rule: Although names ending in stein can be pronounced either stein or steen , names consisting exclusively of Stein are pronounced stine . (In the rare case of a person named Stein refusing to go along with the crowd, this is changed to ''Steen's Rule.'')

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                                      Joe Theisman. To rhyme w/ Heisman.

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                                        It's a trivial side-story, but the Bernie Sanders/Russia thing is quite odd right now. The Mueller indictment of the Russians added that Sanders had also benefited from the actions of Russian bots. This doesn't seem to be a particularly shocking revelation - we know that the Russians were specifically anti-Clinton, and they were generally pro-disruption and chaos, and pro outsider/disrupter candidates. Their goal was creating distrust, so creating some pro-Sanders Facebook pages seems pretty obvious.

                                        Yet Sanders started off by denying that anything happened, while at the same time hammering Trump for denying any Russian interference in the General Election. And now he appears to be fairly lighthanded with the truth about reporting on the Russian spammers to the Clinton campaign.

                                        It's all bizarre, because I don't see how it harms him to say that outside forces over which he had no control acted against the establishment. Yet he's doing it, and making himself look very shifty in the process. He's basically repeating Trump's mistakes on this, but doesn't have the cover that Trump has which is that everyone knows Trump is shifty and crooked and also a complete idiot. When Trump does something stupid or corrupt we all shrug our shoulders now because we expect it - the same is not true of Sanders, who actually has a reputation to protect.

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                                          I’m afraid that he shares 45’s complete aversion to the slightest suggestion that his “triumph” was even marginally due to forces other than the righteousness of his ideas and force of his personality.

                                          That said, he comes off as a paragon of rationality when compared to Jill Stein on this.

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                                            Meanwhile,

                                            https://twitter.com/axios/status/967903201587589120

                                            https://twitter.com/jonathanvswan/status/967904432888348677

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                                              Have we mentioned that the RNC appears to be paying Keith Schiller, Trump's former bodyguard, $15k per month for doing basically nothing. From a slush fund. In what looks to be hush money...

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                                                What about steen and stine ?
                                                That confused the hell out of me, because the Dutch language parts of my brain insist on pronouncing 'steen' as in the English word stain, while the Swedish language parts of my brain remember an ex called Stine, her name being the Swedish nickname for Christine.

                                                Weinstein is a weird one too. Because the US media pronounce the -ei sound differently in the same name. Perhaps it would be more consistent just to pronounce the name as Non-Consensual. Harvey Non-Consensual. It has a nice ring to it. Like Tyson Homosexual.
                                                Last edited by anton pulisov; 26-02-2018, 00:54.

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                                                  Understandable confusion, of course

                                                  In the media's defence, they are using Harvey's own pronunciation of his last name, as 1) no one here pronounces the W correctly, 2) the Stein/Steen marker is only used for names that end in Stein and not dipthongs appearing elsewhere, and 3) he adheres to the original 20th c convention in which the Steen pronunciation was a mark of one's Jewish heritage.

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                                                    https://twitter.com/DLeonhardt/status/968104313636753410

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