French presidential election, 2017

[Etienne]

French presidential election, 2017

I guess that it's a combination of that and the number of candidates competing for centre and left votes - Macron, Hamon, Melenchon and Jadot.

[ursus arctos]

French presidential election, 2017

They haven't broken out of the single digits in all of the First Round polling that I've seen so far, so yes, they are. Recall that Hollande's popularity rating has been as low as 4 (FOUR) percent.

[Diable Rouge]

French presidential election, 2017

Macron and Fillon in an effecttive dead heat, behind Le Pen.

[Pérou Flaquettes]

French presidential election, 2017

Tubby Isaacs wrote:

I can see that Hollande's annoyed lots of supporters, but disastrous?

Small but consistent wage growth over Hollande's tenure.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/france/wage-growth

The growth rate is only one of many indicators used to measure a government’s performance. And it hasn’t been exactly flamboyant anyhow: 0.3% growth in 2013, 0.6% in 2014, 1.2% in 2015, 1.3% in 2016.

The reason of Hollande’s deep unpopularity is that he has spectacularly failed to live up to many of his promises and pledges delivered with stirring passion in political rallies/speeches (Le changement c’est maintenant ! here and here) and that were enshrined in his political programme, a platform strongly imbued with hope and encapsulated in the now-infamous three-minute long “Moi président de la République” anaphora delivered so masterfully by Hollande in a TV presidential debate during the two rounds.

It is precisely the breaking of these promises and the brutal abandonment of these ideals (“repudiation” might be a more apposite term here), who many hoped would herald a new, more ethical era in French politics, that have hurt the most. If “Hell has no fury like a women scorned” (as Hollande has found to his expense with his ex-wife…) then, in this instance, Hell has no fury like a Hollande’s voter scorned. Little wonder his approval ratings were down to a record low of 4% by November 2016. 4 fucking per cent… (of whom only 1% were very satisfied. Damning).



In the eyes of many voters of all hues, his main failing is perhaps more of an “ideological” and a moral nature than purely economy-based; Hollande was partly elected on an anti-Sarkozy ticket and relatively few people anyway really believed in his promises to turn round the economy, cut unemployment (the number of unemployed people has gone up by over 1 million since 2012, boost growth etc. and they were right as much of his “bilan économique” (his record) has disappointed to say the least.

Even worse, far from boosting anything, there is a growing body of evidence to suggest that Hollande’s pro-growth key measures may have benefitted the already well-off, eg his flagshig plan meant to boost employment, the “Pacte de Responsabilité” and the CICE (Crédit d’Impôt Compétitivité Emploi – tax-credit reductions in taxes and other incentives for businesses) that have cost a conservative €50 billion. This CICE has given €billions to multinationals such as Sanofi, Total, Engie, Orange, Société Genérale, BNP Paribas, etc. who have then laid off thousands of employees while rewarding shareholders and CEOs handsomely. The CICE pot (“manna from heaven”, several big bosses have commented in private) came on top of €40 billion of public money generously dispatched each year, without anything in return from these companies (it was made clear in this strange deal that there would be no control, no checks whatsoever on the actual use of the state hand-outs).This has led to a few ministers and 50-odd MPs strongly voicing their disagreement circa 2014 (they were dubbed “Les Frondeurs”, the Rebels). They were not opposed to the CICE per se but wanted a more targeted approach and more accountability from CICE beneficiaries (chief among the rebels is none other than the winner of today’s PS primary, Benoît Hamon, as well as posh maverick – too posh for his own good – Arnaud Montebourg, who both resigned from the Hollande government).

€50 billion euros of CICE... And for what? At best, it has created or preserved a piffling 100,000 jobs in 3-4 years, whereas when it was being mooted the MEDEF – the main French business confederation – vowed to create 1 million jobs if taxation was reduced and more employment flexibility introduced. 1 million jobs! The MEDEF famously even manufactured a pin to celebrate this landmark announcement (very patriotically marketed in capital letters as a “CREATION FRANÇAISE” “de FABRICATION FRANÇAISE”
– when if fact, the Canard Enchaîné later revealed, it was made in the Czech Republic…).



In the meantime, Hollande’s comprehensive austerity programme – cuts, less public investment, more taxes for workers and small businesses – stunted growth, affected the more vulnerable social groups and and dented morale.

During the whole 2012 campaign (and months after the election), he vowed to be “Monsieur Normal” (Mister Ordinary) and was elected on a message of change and renewal. By championing ordinariness, transparency and social justice with such great fervour, by positioning himself as the antithesis of Sarkozy, Hollande generated considerable hope. There was real hope that he would introduce more regulation in the banking industry, that he would call for measures to curb tax evasion and the excesses of capitalism (cf his mantra “Mon ennemi, c’est la finance”, another of his catchy, substance-free, soundbites). There was real hope that he would inject, at the very least, a modicum of morality, decorum, decency into presidential life and politics in general. There was real hope that he would try, Heaven forfend, to be more in touch with reality and radically different from his predecessor – the sinister Sarkozy, “the president of bling” whose outrageously ostentatious lifestyle was more reminiscent of Louis XIV's. All these hopes and aspirations were quickly dashed, crushed.

Hollande has conducted himself just as sickeningly as Sarko. Contrary to what he promised, he lives like a monarch (the Élysée Palace has a budget of €100 million and employs 828 staff) and his reign has been marked by unseemly scandals of all sorts, the last straw being his hiring a “personal hair stylist”, courtesy of the taxpayer of course, who visits him once a fortnight for a modest salary of… 10 grand a month (+ a housing allowance + benefits for his family!). A hair stylist FFS, the man’s practically bald!

Hollande's legacy will no doubt be viewed more positively one day by a greater number of people (there's been a few positives) but it is now in tatters. Beside weakening the Parti Socialiste, he has failed economically and betrayed the very beliefs and ideals that he impassionedly defended (see the two YT clips at the beginning of my post) and stood for not so long ago. That's the reason why he chose not to run for a second term and the reason why he is so reviled in France.

[Pérou Flaquettes]

French presidential election, 2017

Diable Rouge wrote: Strange there haven't been any polls since the story broke, almost too convenient for Fillon.

The first post-Fillon scandal poll is just out.

[anton pulisov]

French presidential election, 2017

So if the left could only unite behind one candidate they'd ambush Fillon and likely win the election.

[ursus arctos]

French presidential election, 2017

Kev7 has been an absolutely invaluable addition to this thread.

Merci bien

15% in the first round is the highest a PS candidate has been by a large margin (almost double polls from early January), but the huge wild card heere remains what will happen to Fillon's candidacy. The Potential Electoral figures which measure the number of people who can see themselves voting for a particular candidate (even if they aren't their first choice) are very interesting. They favour Macron quite significantly, while also demonstrating that Le Pen continues to be unable to expand her vote much beyond her base (25% in First Round, but only 33% Potential, compared to Macron's 21/43).

[Belhaven]

French presidential election, 2017

Great stuff from Kev7 here. How come you follow it so closely?

[Tubby Isaacs]

French presidential election, 2017

In the meantime, Hollande’s comprehensive austerity programme – cuts, less public investment, more taxes for workers and small businesses – stunted growth, affected the more vulnerable social groups and and dented morale.

I can't speak for the incidence of the consolidation, but unless it's stepped up a lot since 2014, there hasn't been much of it and they tried to do most of it with tax rises rather than cuts.



Can I add my thanks to you, Kev.

[Etienne]

French presidential election, 2017

Kev7 is French, Belhaven (or at least lives in France)

[Flynnie]

French presidential election, 2017

Hi Kev, first time long time.

People talk about France's unemployment and how it's impossible to fire people blah blah blah. Is this true, or is it just neoliberalism hiding under a cloak?

I'll hang up and listen.

[Geoffrey de Ste. Croix]

French presidential election, 2017

Ha ha ha, despite the President who comes from their wing of the party polling in at 4% approval, les jouets are out the pram in a massive stroppy tantrum. Sensibles of all nationalities find it easier to contemplate the end of the world than to contemplate progressive social democracy from within their own party.

[Flynnie]

French presidential election, 2017

Hard left?

Fuck off Reuters.

[Etienne]

French presidential election, 2017

That's fucking appalling. Hamon was in Hollande's cabinet, he's not from some Trotskyist sect, and none of the measures they mention are "hard" left. In fact legalisation of cannabis and universal income aren't intrinsically left at all.

[Tubby Isaacs]

French presidential election, 2017

Well they're not "just social democracy" either, are they? I support the cannabis policy but UBI of any kind looks like an election loser all by itself for anybody at all who espouses it. But if your ambition is to come fourth and look futuristic, it's probably good.

[ursus arctos]

French presidential election, 2017

This week's Canard reports another two years in which Fillon employed Penelope in his office, as well as fleshing out the details on his employment of his children.

The total is now up to 900,000 euro for his wife and close to 100K for the kids.

The police have also executed search warrants at the Assemblée nationale

[Tubby Isaacs]

French presidential election, 2017

If Fillon has to drop out, does the second placed conservative come in?

[Tubby Isaacs]

French presidential election, 2017

Beside weakening the Parti Socialiste, he has failed economically

I don't think he has failed as clearly as people say. The deficit just came in under target (3.3%), which seems from this distance to be a sensible speed to reduce it, instead of busting their arse to get under 3%, and they did that far more by tax rises than overall cuts. In the current climate, I think that's a decent achievement, if not exactly socialism.

He got the shitty end of lax budgets for the 30 years too.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/france/government-budget

The thing that hasn't come across to me before is the idea of him as an inspirational defier of austerity- he looked to me like a sensible bloke who got elected because people hated Sarko. Now that you've explained to me the let down from what he said to get elected, I understand the sense of "malaise" much more. But the"secularist" policies are far more of a problem for me.

[ursus arctos]

French presidential election, 2017

Tubbs, Kev looked at the alternatives in case of a Fillon withdrawal a page or so back.

Basically,
1) there isn't any established procedure in such a case (in part because the whole idea of primaries is new);
2) Juppé (who came 2d), doesn't want it;
3) they only have until March to find a candidate, which isn't enough time for a new primary;
4) which leaves senior party members having to impose a candidate, which is unlikely to go well at all.

If there was an easy answer, Fillon would be gone already. I imagine that Juppé is going to be under considerable pressure to change his mind, but it is hard to see anyone other than Macron benefiting from this.

[Diable Rouge]

French presidential election, 2017

ursus arctos wrote: Tubbs, Kev looked at the alternatives in case of a Fillon withdrawal a page or so back.

Basically,
1) there isn't any established procedure in such a case (in part because the whole idea of primaries is new);
2) Juppé (who came 2d), doesn't want it;
3) they only have until March to find a candidate, which isn't enough time for a new primary;
4) which leaves senior party members having to impose a candidate, which is unlikely to go well at all.

If there was an easy answer, Fillon would be gone already. I imagine that Juppé is going to be under considerable pressure to change his mind, but it is hard to see anyone other than Macron benefiting from this.

And, unsurprisingly, EM has now moved into second place.

[Etienne]

French presidential election, 2017

Tubby, I'm not saying the ideas are necessarily popular (though if it's time hasn't quite come yet, UBI will be non controversial in the medium term) but they aren't "hard left".

[linus]

French presidential election, 2017

Voting intentions for Macron were unchanged or up 1 point to 22-23 percent, depending on the scenario. Le Pen's first round score was up by 3 points to 26-27 percent.

Fillon's score fell by between 5 and 6 points to 19-20 percent.

If that's Fillon's number post-"Penelopegate", he can definitely catch up and pass Macron, May is still a long way from now, he's only got 3 points to make up. If he's got no other scandals he should ride this through, Macron's skeletons have yet to be exhibited.

[Diable Rouge]

French presidential election, 2017

Sadly, I presume this morning's events will add another three points to Le Pen's first round lead, even if the run-off should rally the centre.

[Etienne]

French presidential election, 2017

How did you come upon the 3% figure? Sounds quite scientific.

I can't imagine that today's attack will sway many people that the Bataclan and Nice attacks didn't.

[Pérou Flaquettes]

French presidential election, 2017

ursus arctos wrote: Kev7 has been an absolutely invaluable addition to this thread.

Merci bien

De rien...

ursus arctos wrote: The Potential Electoral figures which measure the number of people who can see themselves voting for a particular candidate (even if they aren't their first choice) are very interesting. They favour Macron quite significantly, while also demonstrating that Le Pen continues to be unable to expand her vote much beyond her base (25% in First Round, but only 33% Potential, compared to Macron's 21/43).

Yes, well observed, Macron's cross-party appeal, and consequently his reserve of voters, are much greater than Le Pen's which is why she cannot mathematically win the Presidentials ([strike]well, that's the theory anyhow![/strike] I repeat: she CANNOT win the Presidentials, fact).