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    Supposedly 174 MPs are publicly pro May vs 34 against. In classic Tory brewery piss-up fashion, not even all the 48 are apparently willing to stand behind their letters.

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      Secret ballot, innit. Worse than bloody Brussels et.

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        I think they are jumping the gun with any presumption of a clear victory - I'm guessing the probabilities here are:

        - most of those who are going to vote for her will have declared by now - if anyone is certain to back her they need to have piped up so they aren't suspected of disloyalty later
        - conversely apart from the real hardliners, there's little advantage in declaring against her at this stage, in case she survives
        - some of those who have declared for will vote against in the safety of a secret ballot
        - none of those who have declared against will vote for
        - there will be some convenient abstentions, from both camps

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          Originally posted by Duncan Gardner View Post
          No chance of Mr Micawber, Godzilla the Smogmonster or Eden Hazard standing- but if you offer odds some mugs will put money on them. Nice little earner for the bookies
          Indeed. You can also currently get odds on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez being the next Democratic nominee for President, even though she'll still be 6 years too young to be allowed to be President during the next election.

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            So, is anyone in the media still calling Tory MPs "the most sophisticated electorate in the world"? (see previous leadership elections)

            If this shambles finally buries that old line, it will have achieved something.

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              Originally posted by tee rex View Post
              So, is anyone in the media still calling Tory MPs "the most sophisticated electorate in the world"? (see previous leadership elections)

              If this shambles finally buries that old line, it will have achieved something.
              Whoever said that didn't see the photo of John Redwood backers.

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                Originally posted by San Bernardhinault View Post
                Indeed. You can also currently get odds on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez being the next Democratic nominee for President, even though she'll still be 6 years too young to be allowed to be President during the next election.
                Wait, is there also an upper limit? If so: how the hell is it not lower? If not: this assymmetry must be fixed forthwith.

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                  David Liddington sounds sane. He'll never get it.

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                    Originally posted by Walt Flanagans Dog View Post
                    - some of those who have declared for will vote against in the safety of a secret ballot

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                      Like.

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                        He studied the Brent Kavanaugh tapes very closely...

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                          Johnson stands.

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                            it will be Jeremy Hunt, I think.

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                              Originally posted by Nefertiti2 View Post
                              it will be Jeremy Hunt, I think.
                              God help us all.

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                                I don't think so. I can't see a former remainer (however tough he talks now) winning. Brexiteers think they've already made that mistake once.

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                                  If that's true, Johnson won't be able to win either.

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                                    Johnson won't win.

                                    I caught something on Radio 4 - bloke said "In Tory leadership elections, the final two comes down to the favourite, and the candidate who is there to stop the favourite. And the candidate to stop the favourite wins. Major was the winner because he wasn't Heseltine, Ian Duncan Smith won because he wasn't Michael Portillo and Boris will lose to Not Boris."

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                                      If Johnson gets in the final 2 he'll win by a mile. He'll only lose if the MPs can keep him out of the final 2. Which they probably would have done if they were polling at 35% but desperation outweighs judgement.

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                                        What Etienne said. Those past leadership elections can also be read as the more centrist/moderate candidate losing each time. And there is no way Johnson will be the more moderate candidate

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                                          Meanwhile, "moderate" Tory outrider Amber Rudd throws a hissy-fit against the UN over poverty. Classy.

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                                            Rumours May will resign tonight, with Lidington becoming acting PM!

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                                              Not before tomorrow's elections. Shortly afterwards though, I expect. She's clinging on with a single fingernail now.

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                                                Originally posted by Nocturnal Submission View Post
                                                Not before tomorrow's elections. Shortly afterwards though, I expect. She's clinging on with a single fingernail now.
                                                Ingrowing nail, I believe,

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                                                  Leadsom has resigned.

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                                                    Will anyone notice?

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