Supposedly 174 MPs are publicly pro May vs 34 against. In classic Tory brewery piss-up fashion, not even all the 48 are apparently willing to stand behind their letters.
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I think they are jumping the gun with any presumption of a clear victory - I'm guessing the probabilities here are:
- most of those who are going to vote for her will have declared by now - if anyone is certain to back her they need to have piped up so they aren't suspected of disloyalty later
- conversely apart from the real hardliners, there's little advantage in declaring against her at this stage, in case she survives
- some of those who have declared for will vote against in the safety of a secret ballot
- none of those who have declared against will vote for
- there will be some convenient abstentions, from both camps
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Originally posted by Duncan Gardner View PostNo chance of Mr Micawber, Godzilla the Smogmonster or Eden Hazard standing- but if you offer odds some mugs will put money on them. Nice little earner for the bookies
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Originally posted by tee rex View PostSo, is anyone in the media still calling Tory MPs "the most sophisticated electorate in the world"? (see previous leadership elections)
If this shambles finally buries that old line, it will have achieved something.
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Originally posted by San Bernardhinault View PostIndeed. You can also currently get odds on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez being the next Democratic nominee for President, even though she'll still be 6 years too young to be allowed to be President during the next election.
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Johnson won't win.
I caught something on Radio 4 - bloke said "In Tory leadership elections, the final two comes down to the favourite, and the candidate who is there to stop the favourite. And the candidate to stop the favourite wins. Major was the winner because he wasn't Heseltine, Ian Duncan Smith won because he wasn't Michael Portillo and Boris will lose to Not Boris."
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Meanwhile, "moderate" Tory outrider Amber Rudd throws a hissy-fit against the UN over poverty. Classy.
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