Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

[Janik]

Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

Tony C wrote:

Poor old Murray. Looks too much like an ostrich to be a top top player. Apart from that, is there a more self-destructive player that's got this far? To this casual observer, unforced errors when he should be putting the match to bed seems the way he rolls.

There are lots of players who fancy themselves as being more clinical who would love to have Murray's career record.

True, but both Murray and Federer (even at his peak) have a particular thing where chances for a quick kill are passed up and it becomes a little more fraught. But that is part of the nature of both men; the attacking instinct in Federer's case and the competitive fire in Murray's. That shouting at himself isn't necessarily a sign of mental weakness, it's how he fires himself up to play his best.

As for today, it wasn't that unexpected, at least to the experts. Two out of three Eurosport pundits tipped Muguruza pre-match (Greg Rusedski and Leon Smith, Jo Durie going for Serena).

It was definitely a case of Muguruza being good enough to beat 95% Serena, at least initially. Serena has played better than today for sure, but I feel not enough credit is being given to Muguruza for not allowing her to do so. Serena wants to overwhelm opponents, but for that she has to be on her baseline and Muguruza's own power didn't allow that. That made it an even scrap, which lead to errors from Serena as she really didn't want the match to go down that route.

Also, thinking of Serena in the context of Federer, there are some parallels between when he stopped winning slams and where she appears to currently be. It's not like Roger suddenly fell off a cliff in terms of performance, he was still going close repeatedly but just not getting over the line. Just like Serena (Semi, Runner-up, Runner-up).
There are differences as well, it should be acknowledged. Federer found himself playing second fiddle to one man in particular, who had clearly overtaken him. Serena meanwhile has lost to three different players. She is still regarded as the best, but like Federer the aura is rapidly going and that is a key part of the dominance.

[Janik]

Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

gérontophile wrote: 14 out of the last [strike]21[/strike] 23 men's winners have been Spanish. (and 6 runners-up for good measure)

Nadal 9 of course. Bruguera (2), Ferrero, Costa, and Moya.

(I just added this elsewhere, so I knew without looking. Arantxa won 3 times.)

Bruguera may have been the first ever male Spanish winner, mind. I vaguely recall something along those lines being said at the time. Spain was not a major tennis nation until the 90s, which is easy to forget.

[Jimski]

Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

Nah, Manuel Santana won it twice in the pre-Open era, and some guy called Andres Gimeno won it in the early 70s, just into the Open era. I confess I'd never heard of the latter before.

[Janik]

Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

New one on me too, but Santana I should have known. And god knows why I can hear a commentator describing Bruguera as the first ever winner.

Prediction time.

Novak Djokovic Srb [1] vs Andy Murray GBr [2]
Well now, who do we have here??
Just the seventh Slam final between these two, who with the fading of Federer and Nadal are now a Big Two rather than half of the Big Four. Of those previous meetings in the big shows, Murray won the one at Wimbledon. And Djokovic has won all but one of the others. The last one was in... the last Slam played. Which Djokovic won. That was their first meeting of 2016. This will be their fourth. The seven meetings in 2015 was their most ever in a single year, but they may well be on course to beat that.
Meeting no.4 of 2015 was also at this venue, and Djokovic won that. Just. He raced out to a 2-0 lead, Murray came back to 2-2 but Djokovic edged home. However the closeness of that match, which is their only previous meeting at Roland Garros, and recent results at other clay court events give a reason for optimism for Murray. Clay might be his least favoured surface, but that is also true of his great rival. He might actually be closer in standard on this than he is on the more neutral surface of hard.
It is imperative that Murray starts well. He may have finally won a match against his great rival from one set all in Montreal, but that is one statistic that is just lopsided in Djokovic’s favour but a landslide; he is 10 from 11 against Murray from a score of one set all. Or even more horrendously its 23/24 when Nole wins either of the opening two sets (though this does count quite a few 2-0s in best-of-three matches). Murray is not necessarily the best at hitting the ground running, but he simply has to here.
How does he do it? I can’t see him keeping up Wawrinka’s successful tactics from last years final of going all out on the hitting for a whole match. He doesn’t have Stan’s power, so will be forced to play with too fine margins if he tries to bludegeon his way to victory. But even if he is not quite playing as thunderously, Andy must hit heavy regularly. Purely playing on the defensive surely can’t work, Djokovic is too consistent in his own power (or he is when focused, at least). However playing occasional rallies from further back and asking Djokovic to make his own power might have value. Mix it up, break Nole’s rhythm, make him think about what he is doing.
Because the head is the biggest factor in Murray’s favour here. It is hardly a shot to nothing for the Scot, losing an 8th slam final from 10 would be a pretty painful experience, but the pressure is mostly on Djokovic’s shoulders. Whilst a French Open crown would be a massive bonus for Murray, it has been the raison d’être of Djokovic’s season for the past two years. And he has shown signs of nerves previously in this tournament, and definitely in last year’s final.
As for Djokovic, he needs to stay calm, stay focused, not get complacent and execute what he knows works. Counter-punch Murray into conniptions. Get inside his head. Seize opportunities when they arise. Deliver a Djokovic performance, essentially.
I didn’t change my pre-tournament tip for the Ladies, and I won’t for the Men’s either. I go with Nole having learned from last year, and being too good from the beginning. In three.

[Janik]

Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

Hmm, I meant to include the word dreich in there somewhere, but it slipped my mind. There would be something massively appropriate in a Scottish winner happening as Paris gets hit by two weeks of Scottish summer weather.

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

I hope it goes beyond three, only because I want some excitement. If Murray was playing literally anyone else tomorrow I'd be supporting him wholeheartedly, but there's something about the narrative of Djokovic completing both the career and wrap-around slam in one match that appeals to me. We could be watching something happen tomorrow that's not occurred in my lifetime, and may never again, in the men's game.

Having brought up the subject of Spanish players at Roland Garros, does anyone else remember Jose Higueras? He beat Vilas, and then lost to Wilander, two of my favourite ever players, in possibly the first French Open I remember watching highlights of on Grandstand (in 1983), the one Yannick Noah eventually won, which is why I remember him.

[Janik]

Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

Two weeks of a slam are hard on the feet:-

[Janik]

Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

Doubles update..

Men's Doubles final was yesterday. Feliciano Lopez/Marc Lopez (not related) beat Bob Bryan/Mike Bryan (definitely related) in three sets.
That was the Bryans first Slam Final since the French last year. Their last title was the 2014 US Open. Back in the summer of 2013 they held all four Slams, but fell two matches short of defending their 2012 US Open crown to complete the calendar year Slam. That now seems quite a long while ago.
As for the winners, it represents a first Slam title for Feliciano Lopez; his previous best in both Singles and Doubles had been a QF showing. He also kost the Bronze medal match in the London Olympic Men's Dubs. It was also a first Slam for Marc Lopez, although he had been in Men's Doubles Slam Finals previously (losing to the Bryans the last time they won one, in fact) and had won the Tour Champs as part of his old partnership with Marcel Granollers.

The Mixed Doubles also concluded with a win for Martina Hingis/Leander Paes over Sania Mirza/Ivan Dodig, the deciding factor being a 10-8 match breaker. I guess the Indian TV audience for this was quite decent...
Hingis/Paes won three of the four Mixed Doubles titles last year, all but the French. So their win means they have completed the set as a pairing. I believe the first time they paired up was the 2015 Aussie Open, so their title hit rate is 4/6.

Hingis and Mirza could concentrate on knocking spots off each other in the Mixed as their attempt to hold all four Slam Women's Doubles titles at once time was ended in R3. An omen for Djokovic tomorrow?
In their absence, the final will match up two other established pairs; Ekaterina Makarova/Elena Vesnina vs Caroline Garcia/Kristina Mladenovic. First ever Slam final for Garcia, though partner Mladenovic has been in one before (w/ Babos, beating Makarova/Vesnina in the Semi with me in Row 1 of the crowd). Mladenovic also has Mixed titles to her name. Makarova/Vesnina are previous champions of Roland Garros, have another Slam title together and have both won a Slam Mixed partnering Bruno Soares. Yes, both of them. No, not at the same time.

[tee rex]

Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

And ... we're hoping.

Believing will take a while yet.

[Gerontophile]

Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

ocks-boll.

[Antepli Ejderha]

Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

The bastard son of Nigel Havers and Ken Clarke is presenting the trophy.

[Janik]

Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

Murray talks all about the psychology of the game, making comparisons with Boxing but with emotional instead of physical punches. Djokovic just plays Tennis. One of these approaches has more success, I feel.

[Logan Mountstuart]

Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

I thought the same thing. An Italian Ken Clarke. Although I doubt the Tory looked as good in the 70s.

No shame for Murray here. The man is a miracle.

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

Taking the "gap" for someone achieving this all the way back to Laver is a bit disingenous, on reflection, as very few of the leading (non-Australian) players regularly bothered with the Australian Open until about 1985, many of the leading Americans were reticent about entering at Roland Garros, and Wimbledon was similarly often bereft of some the leading clay court guys in the early 80s.

However. Since 1985 or so, we're talking about the eras of Boris Becker, Stefan Edberg, Mats Wilander, Pete Sampras, Andre Agassi, Jim Courier, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and now Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray; and of all those guys, Djok is the first to ever hold all four slams at the same time.

As I said upthread, we may never see this happen again. We might not even see it repeated next month (I for one wouldn't be surprised to see Murray bounce back and win Wimbledon, now, possibly as Djok takes a bit of "phew, done that now" time).

[Lang Spoon]

Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

Arse. Too Scottish by half, the boy Murray.

[Satchmo Distel]

Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

It is probably easier than it used to be to have a game that can win on all three surfaces. Borg and Sampras could not manage it. It helps obviously that Nadal is injured, and Novak's two main rivals here met in the semi.

[ale]

Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

Rogin le fan du fauteuil wrote: Taking the "gap" for someone achieving this all the way back to Laver is a bit disingenous, on reflection, as very few of the leading (non-Australian) players regularly bothered with the Australian Open until about 1985, many of the leading Americans were reticent about entering at Roland Garros, and Wimbledon was similarly often bereft of some the leading clay court guys in the early 80s.

However. Since 1985 or so, we're talking about the eras of Boris Becker, Stefan Edberg, Mats Wilander, Pete Sampras, Andre Agassi, Jim Courier, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and now Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray; and of all those guys, Djok is the first to ever hold all four slams at the same time.

As I said upthread, we may never see this happen again. We might not even see it repeated next month (I for one wouldn't be surprised to see Murray bounce back and win Wimbledon, now, possibly as Djok takes a bit of "phew, done that now" time).

not sure how this can be used to diminish Djokovics achievement...if winning is as much about mentality as ability the failure of attendance can only mean they were not going to trouble the eventual trophy winners..

[Janik]

Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

I think Bjorn Borg would have had a very decent shot at the Aussie if he had bothered rocking up in his early 20s. Once leading players made a decision to commit they tended to do fine. Jimmy Connors went there twice, and won one and was runner-up the other time for example. Mats Wilander and Ivan Lendl contested the 1983 final having skipped 82. Etc.
Borg would never have held all four at once even if he had bothered going down there to win seeing as he didn't ever win the US, mind.

[Patrick Thistle]

Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

It is something isn't it. To hold all 4 Open Titles at once. I was making tea in the kitchen last night and the radio was on and talking about it and it just struck me 'Wow.'

[Janik]

Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

Not one to rest on his laurels, even when said laurels are pretty spectacular, Djokovic has already been talking about doing the calendar year Slam. He didn't mention the Olympics, though. Matching Steffi (the greatest season in Tennis history?) is a worthy aim, surely?