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    Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

    This all kicks off tomorrow (Roland Garros starts on a Sunday nowadays. The French like to be different, don't they?). So let’s have a dedicated thread for the duration.

    First up, the nominal third round draws, correct as of now I hope, i.e. assuming there have been no more seeded withdrawals since I started writing! They have been dropping like flies, so that feels possible.

    Men's Singles

    Novak Djokovic Srb [1] vs Federico Delbonis Arg [31]
    Bernard Tomic Aus [20] Borna Coric Cro vs Roberto Bautista Agut Esp [14]
    David Ferrer Rus [14] vs Feliciano Lopez Esp [21]
    Pablo Cuevas Uru [25] vs Tomas Berdych Cze [7]

    Rafael Nadal [4] vs Fabio Fognini Ita [32]
    Kevin Anderson RSA [18] vs Dominic Thiem Aut [13]
    David Goffin Bel [12] vs Phillipp Kohlschreiber Ger [24]
    Joao Sousa Por [26] vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga Fra [6]

    Milos Raonic Can [8] vs Lucas Pouille Fra [29]
    Jack Sock USA [23] vs Marin Cilic Cro [10]
    Gilles Simon Fra [16] vs Viktor Troicki Srb [22]
    Jeremy Chardy Fra [30] vs Stan Wawrinka Sui [3]

    Kei Nishikori Jpn [5] vs Steve Johnson USA [33]
    Nick Kyrgios Aus [17] vs Richard Gasquet Fra [9]
    John Isner USA [15] vs Benoit Paire Fra [19]
    Ivo Karlovic Cro [27] vs Andy Murray GBr [2]

    Women's Singles

    Serena Williams USA [1] vs Kristina Mladenovic Fra [26]
    Elina Svitolina Ukr [18] vs Ana Ivanovic Srb [14]
    Carla Suarez Navarro Esp [12] vs Dominika Cibulkova Svk [22]
    Andrea Petkovic Ger [28] vs Victoria Azarenka Blr [5]

    Angelique Kerber Ger [3] vs Daria Kasatkina Rus [29]
    Johanna Konta GBr [20] vs Madison Keys USA [15]
    Venus Williams USA [9] vs Jelena Jankovic Srb [23]
    Monica Niculescu Rou [31] vs Timea Bacsinszky Sui [8]

    Roberta Vinci Ita [7] vs Irina-Camelia Begu Rou [25]
    Karolina Pliskova Cze [17] vs Petra Kvitova Cze [10]
    Svetlana Kuznetsova Rus [13] vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova Rus [24]
    Ekaterina Makarova Rus [27] vs Garbine Muguruza Esp [4]

    Simona Halep Rou [6] vs Jelena Ostapenko Lat [32]
    Samantha Stosur Aus [21] vs Lucie Safarova Cze [11]
    Sara Errani Ita [16] vs Sloane Stephens USA [19]
    Barbora Strycova Cze [30] vs Agnieszka Radwanska Pol [2]

    Tips.

    Mens:-
    Djokovic. Has to be. He is the dominant force, and this is his central aim for the season. He must be incredibly short odds to win a seven-round knock-out tournament, with all the things that could possibly go wrong in such.
    There is then a clear gap in perception to the next three seeds. Andy Murray has the draw, and now has the clay court experience and Masters series titles to have genuine hopes of taking the crown. But it would still be rather a shock if he did. So would it be if Rafa were to claim the La Decima, which seems a strange thing to say. But not only has Djokovic seemingly got his number on his favourite surface, now even Murray is beating him on it.
    Stan Wawrinka is always a wild card as his form veers up and down. He, almost alone on the tour, seems not to be intimidated by taking on Djokovic but instead to relish it. He has the raw power off the ground to get through Nole’s defences. The question for the defending champion is whether he can get to the later stages and get the juices flowing again. Probably handy then that he has found some form this week in Geneva.
    Anyone beyond those four is a real outsider, beginning with the best of the rest both in terms of seeding and clay court results, Kei Nishikori. One can imagine him taking Murray in a QF, but seeing him manage this two or three times in a row to claim the crown? Very, very unlikely.
    Outsiders to make an impact could well be Nick Kyrgios, who seems remarkably at home on a clay court and when he is zoned in is exceptional. Or Dominic Thiem, who is another rising force and could well cause Rafa serious problems if they meet in R4. That is if Rafa gets that far, as Fabio Fognini lurks in his part of the draw, and FF has given Rafa a bloody nose on clay a few times in the past (all over best-of-three, mind). Another who may show up is David Goffin, as he is well adapted to a clay court.
    Non-seeds to look out for are Sascha Zverev, who lurks in Thiem/Anderson’s section of the draw and Borna Coric, who is in with Tomic and Bautista Agut.

    Women’s:-
    Serena was ominously good in Rome. She has been pretty strong in Paris recently. Looking past her is nigh-on impossible. Tipping the two no.1 seeds to win the titles seems dull, but how can one not when they are both so far ahead?
    After Serena, the Women’s draw gets much less predictable. There are strong caveats about many of the rest of the top 10. Aga Radwanska has never done it on clay, and surely never will. She lacks the power to get the ball away. Angie Kerber has been very up-and-down since her unexpected triumph down under. I’m not sure she even knows when it will all come together and when not, so for an outsider to say...
    Vika Azarenka has admitted to struggling with injury again since she lost in Rome. That isn’t good news, given recent problems. She says she is practicing ‘pain-free’ now, but that she was not recently makes it hard to back her to maintain the form of the rest of the season. And besides, clay is not a massively successful surface for her even when she is at full-pelt.
    Simona Halep has demons by the bucket load these days, unfortunately. Roberta Vinci and Timea Bacsinskzy are nice players with good recent results, but don’t really convince as Grand Slam champions. With Venus Williams the question is fitness, as it is with Petra Kvitova with the added dash of mental toughness. Fitness is also a doubt for last year’s runner-up Lucie Safarova.
    The perceptive amongst you will have noted that one name got skipped over; Garbine Muguruza. I rate her extremely highly, and think her path to the Final looks very navigable. She would be my tip to play second fiddle to Serena in two weeks time.
    Outsiders amongst the seeds? It would be folly to write Sveta Kuznetsova off, given her record in the event. Madison Keys looked more at home than ever on clay in Rome, but remains highly streaky. A hot streak and she could break through, though surely Wimbledon is more likely with her awesome power. Irina-Camelia Begu is moving up the rankings and posting good results (the two do tend to go hand-inhand). She could be one to watch, but the best under-the-radar player (for now) is surely Dasha Kasatkina. She is rising rapidly and looks likely to establish herself right at the very top of the game.
    Finally amongst the lesser seeds, some in the British press have been bigging up Jo Konta as capable of not just a good run but winning the whole shooting match. Ms Process wants nothing to do with such speculation, and for me her results on clay, just two wins, me it is wildly misplaced. I would be delighted if she just made the second week.
    As for the non-seeds to watch, rather than out-and-out youngsters it is more a case of young stars whose initial light has faded possibly coming again. The names that stand out are Julia Goerges, Alize Cornet, Genie Bouchard and Caroline Garcia. Goerges is tough on clay, and streaky as hell. She hasn’t shown much form this year, but with that forehand she will always be a threat. Similar sort of thoughts about Cornet, who is an emotional sort who could ride the home crowd to achieve something notable. Bouchard has been showing sparks of the play that got her to the Semis two years ago. If only her mind wouldn’t hold her back. And finally Garcia is coming off her second WTA title as of a few hours ago; if she plays with the power and accuracy she just showed, then she could well emerge from Radwanska’s section of the draw.

    Finally, the British players R1 draws, now that these are confirmed

    Laura Robson vs Andrea Petkovic [28] - oh dear
    Jo Konta [20] vs Julia Goerges - strong potential for a banana skin
    Naomi Broady vs Coco Vandeweghe - 2nd favourite
    Heather Watson vs Nicole Gibbs - definitely winnable. Apparently they are due to play the Doubles together, so it’s a meeting of if not quite friends then at least people who get on decently.

    Aljaz Bedene vs Gerald Melzer [Q] – veteran, and one has just won three straight to get here. Tricky.
    Kyle Edmund vs Nikoloz Basilashvili [Q] – don’t know a lot about him if I’m honest. Edmund if happy on clay so I would be hopeful here
    Andy Murray [2] vs Radek Stepanek [Q] – not ideal. Stepanek caused Murray proper problems in Madrid a few weeks back, and is just really... annoying. The match being over 5 sets may give Murray time to get used to the unusual looks and put it to bed. Actually the Madrid meeting helps in this regard as well.

    #2
    Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

    Presumably, the unusually early start is to give the Euros breathing space?

    Comment


      #3
      Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

      I think it's a permanent switch to accommodate an extra week in the grass court season.

      Comment


        #4
        Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

        I can barely get my head around the idea that this is going to be a Federer-less Slam event. That's the first time in, what, 16 years or thereabouts?

        Comment


          #5
          Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

          Yes, first 21st-century Slam, it was claimed earlier this week.

          Comment


            #6
            Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

            indeed

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer

            Comment


              #7
              Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

              Although a glance at his slam record table on that page will show that he won precisely 1 of the 24 majors immediately preceding this one, so his absence is not such a major factor.

              Comment


                #8
                Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

                Day 1 picks

                Starting on the Sunday is a fairly recent development at Roland Garros, and the schedule always seems a little skeleton. Only a quarter of the R1 singles matches are played, rather than about a third as one might expect. This means opening day pickings are somewhat thin on the ground.

                Matches that catch my eye are:
                Women’s
                Anna Karolina Schmiedlova vs Garbine Muguruza [4] (3rd on Chatrier)
                Simona Halep [6] vs Nao Hibino (4th on Lenglen)
                Svetlana Kuznetsova [13] vs Yaroslava Shvedova
                Men’s
                Kei Nishikori [5] vs Simone Bolelli (2nd on Chatrier)
                Milos Raonic [8] vs Janko Tipsarevic (3rd on Lenglen)
                Grigor Dimitrov vs Viktor Troicki [22] (4th on Court 2)

                Muguruza is the highest seed in action in either draw, which is part of the reason for noting her match. However there are certainly easier R1 draws out there on paper than Schmiedlova for likely contenders. A talent youngster (she got a WTA Rising Star award last year), she got her ranking inside the top 30 in October, and is still only just off a seeding her. However she is also in the middle of a horrible rut; she has suffered 8 straight first round exits and has only won one match worth rankings points all year. One of those R1 defeats was to Muguruza in Madrid within the last month. This should be a repeat, given recent form, and a h2h history that is 4-0 to the Spaniard, without dropping as much as a set.
                Halep-Hibino is selected more for the seed than the non-seed, as it is very hard to know what you are going to get from Simona these days. Hibino is a useful player, but surely not good enough to beat Halep on clay. If Halep loses, she will have beaten herself. Unfortunately this is happening rather too often recently.
                Kuznetsova should have too much for Shvedova on clay, but the Kazakh is so streaky it is hard to know exactly what she will produce – she was the player who won a golden set of Sara Errani at Wimbledon a few years ago. Shvedova has the power to do damage, and if she gets on one it could be a good match. If she is having an off day Sveta will sweep through very easily.

                As with Muguruza, Nichikori’s match is highlighted mostly because he is the leading Man for the day. However once one digs in to his h2h with Bolelli then it might be something more. They have meet twice previously, at Wimbledon 2014 and again in 2015. Nishikori won both times... in five sets on each occasion! Bolelli is a nice player, capable of good variations, and is at home on a clay court. It would be a shock if he won given his current ranking is over 100, but not a complete one based on the closeness of their past matches.
                Raonic vs Tipsarevic is the tie of the day, and would not have been possible as a R1 encounter before injuries ruined the last 30 months of Tipsy’s career, seeing as he was a top 20 and sometime top 10 player before they struck. He is in on a protected ranking and is just starting his latest comeback with a couple of challenger events prior to this. There three previous meetings were all incredibly tight, with 6 out of 8 sets needing tie-breaks prior to a Davis Cup encounter that went to 10-8 in the decider. One thing does stand out about those previous matches:- however tight they may have been, Raonic won all four. A clay court will favour Tipsarevic (though that Davis Cup one was on dirt), but the length of time out surely means Raonic comes through this time as well.
                How the mighty have fallen! Grigor Dimitrov unseeded?!? Whatever next... It’s only just (his current ranking is 36), but even he needs to steady the ship and fast. They met twice in two weeks early in the season, with one three-set win a piece. Can Dimitrov beat Troicki on clay? Well, sure. Grigor can beat anybody on any surface. Will he? Uh, maybe. I think probably not, though. Troicki in four sounds the most likely to me.

                Brits in action
                Nicole Gibbs vs Heather Watson (2nd on Court 3)
                Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Kyle Edmund (4th on Court 6)

                Comment


                  #9
                  Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

                  Kyrgios is in a tough battle , winning an opening set tie-break 8-6. He is also boiling at the umpire, who gave him a code violation midway through the breaker for asking for his towel from a ball kid in an agressive and disrespectful manner, but not involving swearing (the only word used was "towel"). Now this is something that Tennis needs to address, politeness towards ball kids costs nothing and many players fail on that front, but choosing Kyrgios to make an example of doesn't seem wise. The umpire involved, Ramos, is very experienced.

                  Kyrgios does seem to have settled at the start of set 2, and has just hit a touch winner of such impudent skill that it made me laugh out loud.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

                    Now this is something that Tennis needs to address, politeness towards ball kids costs nothing and many players fail on that front, but choosing Kyrgios to make an example of doesn't seem wise.
                    Well, yes, but the problem is other players getting away with it, not Kyrgios being called out. Well done umpire.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

                      As long as it is consistent.

                      Anyway, Kyrgios wins the second set by the same score, 8-6 in a breaker. It has been a really fine match, the question now is whether Cecchinato can maintain his level two sets down. The evidence from the opening game of set 3 was hopeful.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

                        That makes Kyrgios tie-break record so far this year an eye-catching 14-2. Remembering our discussion on tie-breaks, that would be way out in front. Kyrgios does say he gets bored during matches, so the record fits with both that and his skill level and reputation as a showman, and somewhat suggests that if Tennis was a more quick-fire sport, he would be the no.1. A 20-20 Tennis player?

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

                          Only a very slight let down by Cecchinato, but probably enough. Having saved 10 break points, Cecchinato lost the 11th with his first double fault of the match. That is the only break of serve we've had.

                          Meanwhile, on Chatrier, Kovinic has just failed to serve out at 5-4 in the third against Kvitova. Petra won the opening set and was twice a break up in set 2, so has really let this one slip.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

                            Kyrgios wins 7-6(6) 7-6(6) 6-4. The match was on Court 1, colloquially known as The Bullring (erm, in French). Very appropriate.

                            Eurosport 1 have gone straight to Heather Watson-Nicole Gibbs, the start of which dovetailed perfectly.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

                              Hmm, I appear to be wrong about ITVs rights. After Kvitova completed her escape (7-5), they have moved court to show Heather as well.

                              Comment


                                #16
                                Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

                                So Heather took set 2, but sleeps on being a break down in the third overnight.

                                As for the schedule tomorrow, all the matches I highlighted have been shifted to it. So Day 2 picks, including Day 1 hold overs are:-

                                Men's
                                Lukas Rosol vs Stan Wawrinka [3] (1st on Chatrier)
                                Kei Nishikori [5] vs Simone Bolelli (to finish, 2nd on Chatrier)
                                Radek Stepanek [Q] vs Andy Murray [2] (4th on Chatrier)
                                Milos Raonic [8] vs Janko Tipsarevic (held over, 1st on Court 2)
                                Grigor Dimitrov vs Viktor Troicki (held over, 1st on Court 3)

                                Women's
                                Anna Karolina Schmiedlova vs Garbine Muguruza [4] (held over, 1st on Lenglen)
                                Svetlana Kuznetsova [13] vs Yaroslava Shvedova (to finish, 2nd on Court 1)
                                Simona Halep [6] vs Nao Hibino (held over, 3rd on Court 2)
                                Bethanie Mattek-Sands vs Irina-Camelia Begu [25] (3rd on Court 5)
                                Samantha Stosur [21] vs Misaki Doi (4th on Court 6)

                                Wawrinka and Rosol met in the Geneva Semis on Friday and produced a high quality three set match. If Rosol can hit the same level again, he can push the defending champ. However he did lose in Switzerland in the end, as was the case in the previous three (IIRC) meetings of the two, so an actual shock doesn't seem that likely. But it could be good powerful stuff for a while.
                                Nishikori-Bolelli is mostly here out of proprieties sake. Kei is two sets up and cruising and Bolelli needed the trainer during the opening set. Seems straightforward.
                                Murray should see of Stepanek, but as in Madrid it might take him a while to get the whip hand. A dropped set wouldn't surprise much.
                                Prediction on the last two is unchanged from the previous post.

                                Also unchanged is the opinion on Schmiedlova-Muguruza and Halep-Hibino, as those two are yet to get under way. Kuznetsova-Shvedova has gone the distance, but Sveta is a break up in the third overnight. However she was racing towards victory, 6-1 3-1 in sets 2 & 3, when the rain came and so will be cursing it.
                                Begu is 4-0 on Mattek-Sands, with three of those being on clay and in the last 18 months. However it has been pretty close, three sets in Charleston this year and 6-4 7-6(6) in this very round and tournament 12 months ago. Mattek-Sands is a showman who loves the big stage. She is also the Doubles champ at RG. She could buck that h2h here.
                                And finally there are lots of matches where a Women's seed looks sort of flaky, but is up against someone she really should beat. So sticking a random pin in, I've gone for former finalist Sam Stosur to be where the story hits. Misaki Doi brings form with her QF run in Rome, and is inside the top 50 at the moment. Clay is not exactly her best surface, whereas it works well for Stosur's kick serve and heavy topspin forehands, but if those shots are not firing as can happen to Sam that Doi is solid enough to take advantage.

                                The rest of the Brits on the schedule are:-

                                Heather Watson vs Nicole Gibbs (to finish, 2nd on Court 3)
                                Coco Vandeweghe vs Naomi Broady (3rd on Court 4)
                                Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Kyle Edmund (held over, 3rd on Court 6)

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

                                  Is any of this on TV in the UK?

                                  I remember in the past it has been on itv4.

                                  I'm a first time poster but viewed these forums for a few months now and a long term magazine sucscriber.

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

                                    On Eurosport I think. Certainly is outside the UK. Play's only just starting today because of rain earlier

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

                                      On terrestrial TV, ITV4 is indeed the place again, Malcs: the channel is entirely given over to it from 9:30am to 9:00pm.

                                      And welcome to the forums. Where d'you come from, who do you support, and what's your favourite biscuit?

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

                                        Eurosport for the duration and ITV4 at the moment. ITV1 will show the Finals, and may have coverage over the Bank Holiday weekend.

                                        Interesting starts in quite a few of the flagged up matches; Rosol is a set up on Wawrinka, Schmeidlova leads Muguruza 5-2 (single break) in their opening set and Dimitrov is a set up on Troicki. Raonic is a set-up, though. Of the three, I give Dimitrov by far the best chance of converting his start into victory.

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

                                          First seed has gone - Jelena Ostapenko beaten in straight sets by fellow young buck (young doe?) Naomi Osaka.

                                          Could be a much bigger shock in the offing, though. Lukas Rosol leads Stan Wawrinka two sets to one...

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

                                            Jelena Ostapenko beaten in straight sets by fellow young buck (young doe?) Naomi Osaka
                                            excellent

                                            Comment


                                              #23
                                              Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

                                              Various Artiste wrote: On terrestrial TV, ITV4 is indeed the place again, Malcs: the channel is entirely given over to it from 9:30am to 9:00pm.

                                              And welcome to the forums. Where d'you come from, who do you support, and what's your favourite biscuit?
                                              Hi Various Artiste, I originate from Sheffield. Still living here but due to move down south in a few months. My favourite biscuit is the traditional digestive and if I'm feeling fancy or celebrating I like a good dark chocolate digestive. For my sins I support Sheffield Wednesday but with this season I cant complain!

                                              Comment


                                                #24
                                                Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

                                                That's the stuff Bigmalcs. I hope you realise the next step to blend in around here is to convert your username to Grandmalcs (or perhaps Grosmalcs) for the duration of the European Championships in France...?!

                                                Good to see Wednesday in the playoff final after so long in the doldrums, by the way. And you can't knock a good dark chocolate digestive.

                                                Comment


                                                  #25
                                                  Après Roger, le déluge – French Open 2016

                                                  Various Artiste wrote: Good to see Wednesday in the playoff final
                                                  No it isn't.

                                                  Comment

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