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    COP21 and preventing the end of the world...

    150 world leaders, all in Paris telling everyone else what they're doing wrong while planning to do nothing themselves.

    All touting their magnificent achievements in reducing emissions that have all been in fact achieved either by the luck of having a shitty economy or by the luck of burning less crap fossil fuels that turn out to be cheaper.

    Very few of whom have actually done anything themselves of note.

    Is anything worthwhile going to come from this (other than the fact that some work I was doing in the build up has kept me in beer money through the end of the year)?

    #2
    COP21 and preventing the end of the world...

    It looks to be better than Copenhagen.

    Though that is an admittedly low bar.

    Comment


      #3
      COP21 and preventing the end of the world...

      It probably helps that the US President actually thinks climate change is a thing.

      I still think we're going to end up with nothing much other than woolly non-binding targets - which are either going to be sufficiently distant that nobody currently in power needs to worry about them; or are so underwhelming that they're already expected to be hit because of improvements in energy efficiency and so on - and lots of nice words.

      I hope I'm wrong - and perhaps the Chinese, who seem to have grasped the nettle a little bit are going to be the ones to force the shift.

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        #4
        COP21 and preventing the end of the world...

        It does, though that was also the case at Copenhagen, and the US has already said that it can't agree to serious binding limits because it has no hope of getting them through Congress.

        It is increasingly amazing to me how out of sync with the rest of the world US public discourse on this topic has become. One can even make the argument that the denialists are stronger than they were last time 'round.

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          #5
          COP21 and preventing the end of the world...

          Things are actually going to happen on this front, because there is a lot of money to be made, with new markets and a new global tax paradigm opening up. The question is, how much the profit and taxes are actually aligned with ecological targets.

          PS: "end of the world" is a bit too alarmist, there are other things that have a greater likelihood of dooming civilization by the end of this century than a rise in a couple of degrees in global temperatures. Some countries might actually be better off with global warming, like Canada, or the American Ice Belt.

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            #6
            COP21 and preventing the end of the world...

            Yes, end of the world is ludicrous hyperbole.

            Although I think that the "weather's going to be nicer in Whitehorse and Irkutsk" line of argument is generally overplayed. Whilst it's (probably) true, the other knock on effects of climate change will put pressures on pretty much everywhere.

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              #7
              COP21 and preventing the end of the world...

              Action is desperately needed or the wave of immigrants will make the Syrian crisis look manageable.

              Good point raised in the Guardian that the decisions of India and China will determine whether an agreement is reached. The EU will back whatever is going while the US is a basket case.

              Comment


                #8
                COP21 and preventing the end of the world...

                There's been quite a lot of publicity this week about CO2 emissions declining this year.

                Superficially, this is great news - although the data is hugely unreliable, particularly given how unclear the data from China is, and that most of the slowdown appears to have come from China.

                But it's one of those things that could easily lead to complacency, when there's no room for complacency.

                First up, there's no real evidence that this is a trend, rather than an outlier year. Given that many developing countries are going to continue rapid growth, and much of that rapid growth will be on the back of dirty energy, there's a good chance that the slowdown in CO2 from Europe, North America and China won't yet balance the growth from elsewhere.

                Second, and more important, we're just hitting a flatline in the amount we're producing. The lifespan of CO2 in the atmosphere is measured in decades (and we don't know how that will change if the sinks, such as the oceans, begin to get saturated), so the amount that's in the atmosphere will continue to grow. A peak in production is not a peak in atmospheric concentration.

                And, of course, many of the reductions that are coming on-stream - particularly switch from coal to natural gas - are only going to get us a little bit of the way. Reductions could stall pretty quickly.

                So, yeah, there's going to be a lot of smugness in Paris about this from EU, US and Chinese leaders, and they'll probably try to take advantage of that to get away with less serious commitments.

                Comment


                  #9
                  COP21 and preventing the end of the world...

                  There is a dip in CO2 output due to the current global economic slump, but there is also a structural change, with for instance solar power costs plummeting. One thing that will weaken the structural reduction is the considerable decline in oil and gas prices, but in the big picture that structural change will be implemented in decades to come.

                  One problem with global warming culture is that it tends to monopolize discussions and overwhelm other environmental challenges which are just as pressing, and which are far more tangible in the short term, like the destruction of ocean ecosystems through overfishing and plastics dumping, deforestation, nuclear energy (waste disposal, depleted uranium use, catastrophic events), GMOs, toxic materials pervasive in nature and so forth.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    COP21 and preventing the end of the world...

                    linus wrote:
                    One problem with global warming culture is that it tends to monopolize discussions and overwhelm other environmental challenges which are just as pressing, and which are far more tangible in the short term, like the destruction of ocean ecosystems through overfishing and plastics dumping, deforestation, nuclear energy (waste disposal, depleted uranium use, catastrophic events), GMOs, toxic materials pervasive in nature and so forth.
                    I fundamentally disagree with this.

                    Everything you mention is a trivial problem for humanity compared to the risks from climate change. (And GMOs are a problem at all).

                    Comment


                      #11
                      COP21 and preventing the end of the world...

                      I see those delightful Saudis are being obstructive as usual.

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                        #12
                        COP21 and preventing the end of the world...

                        Actually, the Saudis are going to be one of the more aggressive pushers for carbon reduction, and they will get results because of where they are starting from, being one of the most wasteful countries on earth. Their government is going to reduce domestic oil and gas consumption in order to redress the structural budget deficit created by low oil prices with massive renewable and conservation projects over the next couple of decades. They want to export a greater share of the oil they pump and reduce domestic gas subsidies.

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                          #13
                          COP21 and preventing the end of the world...

                          This is an interesting summary of things at the moment: who is being reasonable and who is being awkward. It sounds like most countries are actually being a little less shitty than you'd originally expect, which gives me grounds for a little optimism for once.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            COP21 and preventing the end of the world...

                            Some interesting developments out of Paris... It appears that something came into existence a few months ago called the "High Ambition Coalition", which includes the US (ironic, given their past stance), the EU, and a whole bunch of highly at-risk developing nations. And they are pushing for much stronger targets at COP.

                            This is broadly good news, although it looks like the Russians and Indians and Chinese are all a little pissed off at being blindsided by the existence of a secret coalition that. Despite these countries grumpiness, it seems hopeful that the targets in this years protocols will be much tighter than previously stated, and we'll get a much better outcome from Paris than most people could have hoped for when it started.

                            Which brings me to something that I find bothers me - the High Ambition Coalition is pushing for a "legally binding target" of an increase of no more than 1.5 degrees C. While that's a laudable ambition (in the context of what's come before), I find it very weird. How can something that's dependent on every party acting be legally binding? What are the - legal - consequences of failure and how can it be pinned down?

                            Also, of course, how can you even hope to be so precise in a system as complex and messy and with so many unknown or uncontrollable feedback loops as a planet?

                            Comment


                              #15
                              COP21 and preventing the end of the world...

                              It's crunch time now. The whole thing ends tomorrow.

                              Comment


                                #16
                                COP21 and preventing the end of the world...

                                Reading reports on progress up to Thursday night make it seem like there's been a little backsliding.

                                Rather than a target of 1.5C, it's now "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above preindustrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C". Which isn't bad, but isn't as good as it might have looked yesterday.

                                As far as I can tell, they've moved language out of the draft that had specific numbers in terms of reduction of emissions. That's actually quite shitty and gives countries too much leeway.

                                Finally, there's some people pissed off that a clause has been put in preventing compensation claims for earlier emissions. I'm inclined to think that this is basically OK, because this agreement really needs to focus on fixing the problem, and compensation issues would just muddy even further some already pretty muddy water. But I can see why others might disagree.

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  COP21 and preventing the end of the world...

                                  Rather than a target of 1.5C, it's now "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above preindustrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C". Which isn't bad, but isn't as good as it might have looked yesterday.
                                  Eerily similar to the ECB mantra: we will maintain temperature inflation below, but close to, 2% in the medium term.

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    COP21 and preventing the end of the world...

                                    San Bernardhinault wrote:
                                    Originally posted by linus
                                    One problem with global warming culture is that it tends to monopolize discussions and overwhelm other environmental challenges which are just as pressing, and which are far more tangible in the short term, like the destruction of ocean ecosystems through overfishing and plastics dumping, deforestation, nuclear energy (waste disposal, depleted uranium use, catastrophic events), GMOs, toxic materials pervasive in nature and so forth.
                                    I fundamentally disagree with this.

                                    Everything you mention is a trivial problem for humanity compared to the risks from climate change. (And GMOs are a problem at all).
                                    I wouldn't call the destruction of ocean eco-systems trivial. Over fishing is a huge issue which little is being done about.

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      COP21 and preventing the end of the world...

                                      I think 'trivial compared to the risks of climate change' is accurate as they are so colossal that even a major issue like the destruction of the oceans is rendered comparatively insignificant. In fact, I can't think of any issue at all that is not comparatively insignificant.

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        COP21 and preventing the end of the world...

                                        Also climate change is a major factor in destroying ocean ecosystems through acidification, coral bleaching, algal blooms etc.

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          COP21 and preventing the end of the world...

                                          Looks like final agreement is going to be pushed to tomorrow morning, rather than get published today. Lots more negotiating to get done.

                                          Good news is that Brazil becomes the first big developing nation to sign up to the High Ambition group. With a big developing nation on board, it may help influence others.

                                          China, India and oil producers: Venezuela, Malaysia, Russia, and worst of all Saudi Arabia are all pushing back hard against some of the stronger language, which seems to be part of the hold up.

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            COP21 and preventing the end of the world...

                                            They got it done. 195 nations signed up to a new climate deal.

                                            Which, whatever the content of the deal, even if it's just offering every head of state a jelly baby, is pretty bloody impressive.

                                            And I think given the inherent problems of getting 195 countries to agree to something, it looks like this document is OK. It's missing things I'd like, particularly some hard targets on emission reductions. But I think most of the extra stuff I'd like would never have been included, given that countries like Saudi Arabia had to sign up.

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