World Cup qualification : Africa

[N est à?]

World Cup qualification : Africa

Yeah, that would be my solution. Maybe winnow down to the top 15 in concacaf, all ten conmebol, five groups of five, top two of each go through?

[Satchmo Distel]

World Cup qualification : Africa

I think the financial cost would be prohibitive: Trinidad & Tobago v Peru, Canada v Venezuela...

Unfortunately, in this 32 team format, you can't guarantee that the best 32 will be there, because even if you could somehow get the best 32 through as of Nov 2017, they might not be the best 32 as of June 2018, due to player disputes, coach changes, economic turmoil etc.

Some teams are repeatedly strong in qualifying but then turn up shit for the finals, England being the obvious example.

The bottom line is that 5 or 6 teams will stink the place out, one of whom will be Cameroon*, at least one from Asia, and maybe another two will be from UEFA (England and France in 2010, of course). CONMEBOL and CONCACAF have commendably avoided doing this more often than not, but CONCACAF did supply the awful Honduras last time, and there have been some plodding Bolivian sides (1994?).

*Why are Cameroon repeatedly able to qualify when they are such a mess? Is the opposition intimidated by reputation? Do they have a huge home advantage such as heat, humidity or altitude? Are the players on bigger bonuses than their rivals?

[Borracho]

World Cup qualification : Africa

Since Cameroon broke the mould at Italia 90, Africa has had 28 teams at the finals, and seven have made it out of the group stage.

The overall finals record in that period is 19 wins from 93 games.

[N est à?]

World Cup qualification : Africa

Are the players on bigger bonuses than their rivals?

Heh, that might have something to do with it- promises of enormous bonuses spur the players on in the qualifiers, then the promised riches fail to materialize, which destroys morale.

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

World Cup qualification : Africa

Green Calx wrote:

Since Cameroon broke the mould at Italia 90, Africa has had 28 teams at the finals, and seven have made it out of the group stage.

The overall finals record in that period is 19 wins from 93 games.

Since Ireland broke the mould at Euro 88, Ireland has sent three teams to the finals, but none have beaten an African side.

Their overall World Cup finals record is 2 wins out of 13 games.

[Borracho]

World Cup qualification : Africa

If Ireland were a continent, your point might make some vague kind of half-sense.

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

World Cup qualification : Africa

Well, okay then, since 1978, Algeria, Ghana, Cameroon, Nigeria and the Ivory Coast have all won more games at the World Cup Finals than Ireland. Morocco, Senegal and South Africa have won just as many.

Which of these countries does not deserve a chance at adding to its footballing heritage, and are you going to go and tell them?

[N est à?]

World Cup qualification : Africa

I'd say Cameroon. It'd be doing them a favour.

[Borracho]

World Cup qualification : Africa

Rogin the Armchair Fan wrote: Well, okay then, since 1978, Algeria, Ghana, Cameroon, Nigeria and the Ivory Coast have all won more games at the World Cup Finals than Ireland. Morocco, Senegal and South Africa have won just as many.

Which of these countries does not deserve a chance at adding to its footballing heritage, and are you going to go and tell them?

What on earth do Ireland have to do with it? We don't qualify for most World Cups anyway.

And what are you going on about with this "doesn't deserve a chance" emotive nonsense? We're not talking about kicking them out of the competition. They'll still have a chance if they qualify. And if they're good enough, they will qualify.

19 wins out of 93 really isn't very good for a continent that gets the same number of places as South America.

[Borracho]

World Cup qualification : Africa

Asia's record in the same period of time is 13 wins out of 53, which is considerably better. If anyone should get an extra place it's them.

For CONCACAF, it's 17 wins out of 70.

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

World Cup qualification : Africa

How you are adding that up?

Asian teams have won 10 matches in the last 4 World Cups, totalling 55 games. 5 of those came in 2002, when South Korea and Japan (who won 5 games between them) were the hosts.

Since then they've won 5 out of 38. All of these wins have been by South Korea, Japan or Australia (since they became "Asian" in 2010).

[Kevin S]

World Cup qualification : Africa

'Number of different teams who have actually won a game' might be a good measure of depth, actually.

[Satchmo Distel]

World Cup qualification : Africa

Asia has to be the weakest in terms of "likelihood of winning games." From memory, CONCACAF have 3 sides you'd fancy to win a game or two at the finals (Mexico, Costa Rica, USA), Africa have two (Ivory Coast, Ghana, maybe Nigeria), Asia might plausibly expect one win from Australia and/or South Korea, but you wouldn't be surprised if they didn't win any.

"Likelihood of reaching last 16" is even more skewed. Mexico have reached that round consistently, USA and Costa Rica occasionally, Ghana usually has a 50/50 chance, as does Ivory Coast given a decent draw. I think many fancied South Korea to get out of the group in Brazil but it didn't happen, and perhaps that was the worst Asian representation since the tournament went to 32 teams. There seems to be a pattern of Asian teams holding a lot of possession but having no final ball into the box, very few meaningful chances, then conceding a soft goal.

[Borracho]

World Cup qualification : Africa

Rogin the Armchair Fan wrote: How you are adding that up?

Since Italia 90, i.e. the same time period we were using for the African sides. In other words, the fairest way of doing a comparison.

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

World Cup qualification : Africa

Well in that period it might be 13 wins, but it's significantly more than out of 53 games. Like I said, they've played 55 in this century alone.

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

World Cup qualification : Africa

1994 to 2014 inclusive by my reckoning is 13 wins out of 74 games (73 if you forget South Korea's 3rd place playoff, which I probably would).

If 13/53 was your typo for 13/73 then fair enough but it is a very different ratio.

[Borracho]

World Cup qualification : Africa

I ballsed up my mathematics for reasons that are too boring to go into. (Short version: I"m up to my tits at work and did the adding-up in dribs and drabs.)

The true figure is played 74, won 13. So, erm, yeah.

I still don't think Africa should have five places. Not with a win rate of 20 per cent, or whatever it is. Give CONCACAF another place instead.

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

World Cup qualification : Africa

UEFA's record against teams from other confederations in the period 1994-2014 is 60 wins from 112 matches. I'm not entirely sure what that proves but having spent 15 minutes working it out I'm fucked if I'm not posting it.

[Kevin S]

World Cup qualification : Africa

I was just looking for somewhere to post my hunch that Algeria could be dark horses for 2018. There are some very high quality players in their team like Slimani, Mahrez, Ghoulam, Feghouli, Brahimi and Boudebouz.

They've also just appointed the coach behind Ghana's Suarez-ended run in 2010.

However they have been drawn in a tough qualifying group, so there is also a chance they won't even qualify.

The draw was made last Friday and the 20 teams who got through the knockout rounds have been grouped as follows.

Group A
Tunisia
Libya
DR Congo
Guinea

Group B
Zambia
Cameroon
Algeria
Nigeria

Group C
Gabon
Mali
Ivory Coast
Morocco

Group D
Senegal
South Africa
Burkina Faso
Cape Verde

Group E
Ghana
Egypt
Congo
Uganda

With five qualifying places available, this is as brutal as it looks: group winners only will qualify for the 2018 World Cup.

[N est à?]

World Cup qualification : Africa

Well, we had the same set of qualifiers in 2010 and 2014, at least that won't happen this time.

[G-Man]

World Cup qualification : Africa

Group B is a fucker. And I can look forward to another Mickey Mouse campaign by South Africa in a fairly tough group.

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

World Cup qualification : Africa

I was just thinking, Cape Verde have got a decent chance there, haven't they?

[Kevin S]

World Cup qualification : Africa

G-Man wrote: Group B is a fucker.

Yeah, I was just going to caption it "of death" rather than "B".

Here are the rankings of the African sides against each other, according to the FIFA rankings. Might be a bit self-fulfilling as the playoff results will have been moving teams up or down the rankings in themselves.

A = 6+8+9+36
B = 1+10+12+20
C = 2+13+14+22
D = 4+7+15+17
E = 3+5+11+16

Benin are the highest-ranked side, 18th in Africa, to miss out. They lost 3-2 on aggregate to Burkina Faso. The 19th side, Equatorial Guinea, went out 2-1 over two legs to Morocco.

Libya (36) are surprise qualifiers, they won through in their playoff 4-1 against Rwanda (#26 in CAF).

[Kevin S]

World Cup qualification : Africa

Game 1 of 6, results

Group A
DR Congo 4–0 Libya
Mbokani 6', 56'
Bolingi 45+2'
Mubele 69'

Tunisia 2–0 Guinea
Abdennour 58'
Ben-Hatira 80'

Group [strike]B[/strike] of death
Zambia 1–2 Nigeria
Mbesuma 71'....... Iwobi 32'
........................ Iheanacho 42'

Algeria 1–1 Cameroon
Soudani 7'.................Moukandjo 24'

Group C
Gabon 0–0 Morocco

Ivory Coast 3–1 Mali
Kodjia 26'
S. Coulibaly 31' (o.g.)
Gervinho 34'....................S. Yatabaré 18'

Group D
Burkina Faso 1–1 South Africa
Diawara 90+1'.............Furman 80'

Senegal 2–0 Cape Verde
Keita 24'
Sow 80'

Group E
Ghana 0–0 Uganda

Congo 1–2 Egypt
Doré 24'.........M. Salah 41'
..................Said 58'

Game 2 fixtures to be played 11-13 November.

[Kevin S]

World Cup qualification : Africa

Nigeria 3-1 Algeria in games 2 of 6 surprised me a bit. Because of Afcon 17, there aren't any more qualifying games in this zone until next August - and Algeria are looking in a spot of bother in the group of death with just one point to their name.

South Africa got a crucial 2-1 win at home to Senegal earlier, thanks to a couple of goals late in the first half.