Housing crisis watch

[Lucia Lanigan]

So, Right to Buy 2. The tories' shark-jump election promise to force private companies to sell off their assets, on the principle that they should then use the money to build new flats under the sea, looks like it's about to come to a head. The proposed policy has been panned for being a disaster during our housing crisis, not to mention unworkable, by left and right alike. But in the media at large the "magic swap" principle (sell one, build one) has been reported uncritically. If housing associations were reclassified as being part of the public sector it's estimated that the taxpayer would take on £60bn of debt.

They quietly proposed a backroom deal with housing associations this week - basically "accept a slightly diluted version so we don't have to take it to Parliament" - which they have a few days to accept or reject. I know that London councils have got together to fight it this week too.

In this piece it's left to a housing consultant and blogger to say what matters:

We all know that one for one replacement has been a dismal failure so far - the true figure is more like one built for eight sold. What’s more, a report from the Commons’ public accounts committee shows that the government has thoroughly mismanaged its sale of public land. And yet the National Housing Federation appears to be willing to accept the government’s commitment to one- for-one replacement without any second thoughts.

Anyway, this is a thread to keep an eye on such fuckery.

[Lucia Lanigan]

Housing crisis watch

This is actually looking worse than I thought. The government could well have quietly begun the end of social housing here.

http://www.citymetric.com/politics/housing-associations-deal-over-right-buy-could-lead-social-cleansing-rich-british-cities

[E10 Rifle]

Housing crisis watch

This could be one of those threads like Tubby's schools one that don't require loads of comments but just need to be read and kept appraised of. Good stuff LL.

[N est à?]

Housing crisis watch

The rumour is that investment bank Goldman Sachs has been appointed, to model how a nationalisation and privatisation of housing associations could be carried out.

Ah yes, nationalise in order to privatise, the old TSB trick from the eighties.

[Lucia Lanigan]

Housing crisis watch

It's completely crackers.

I'm convinced this wouldn't make it through Parliament (Lib Dems and lots of Tories are against) but it looks as if London housing associations could be willing to fuck it up for everyone if they get to keep their nice expensive blocks, which they built and own privately anyway.

[E10 Rifle]

Housing crisis watch

They've long been unreliable defenders of progressive housing policies. Even a decade ago, when I was living in a Peabody flat, there were plans to hive off more and more of their estates to 'market renters' and such.

[Lucia Lanigan]

Housing crisis watch

Yeah, but at least the rationale there is to plough the money back into social housing (and keep up the original council housing principle of 'mixed communities', nominally at least) which you surely wouldn't get from a nationalised-then-privatised entity rather than a non-profit one.

They're pussying out when they don't have to. Worse than the BBC, this lot.

[Bored Of Education]

Housing crisis watch

Yeah, well done, LL. I know that it is a huge issue but I am fucked if I know that well how to solve. Well, other than building at least 100,000 council houses a year or commandeering the 700,000 empty homes we have.

What I do know is that my niece - a comprehensive teacher and head of music department - and her fiancee - an IT something or another - can't afford a one bedroom flat in London. Teachers used to be able to afford houses in London on one salary. There aren't going to be any teachers or nurses in London soon. I have just checked and the flat we sold in London has doubled in value in the last 10 years. It's not just London as well. We have just sold my mother in law's flat in Bath - which was is smaller than the one we sold in London 10 years ago - for the same price as we sold that flat for. I know that these are the two most expensive areas in Britain to buy but this pattern is going on all over the place.

[Lucia Lanigan]

Housing crisis watch

What's changed in the last five years is that, whereas back in 2010 the likes of them couldn't afford to buy a flat, now they may struggle to rent one. Rents have pretty much doubled in this time, because so many of us are locked out of the home ownership game and have to pay whatever's on offer. The last figures I saw suggested that 70% of Londoners were homeowners in 2005 but in 2015 that's down to 60%. That's why if you distract yourself from impending doom by watching pop videos on YouTube today you'll be interrupted by a Rightmove advert that cajoles, "Looking for a place to rent?" - the successor to property porn is survival porn.

Labour making the right noises but admitting to not being hopeful on this one

[Lucia Lanigan]

Housing crisis watch

Some more, from a 'no' voting housing association.

This appears to have inserted another wave of government policy into a voluntary deal that has not been subjected to a democratic process. It is expressed in vague terms that are impossible to review properly and receive relevant advice with which to gauge the implications and risks.

[Bizarre Löw Triangle]

Housing crisis watch

Depressing to think in the space of about one lifetime we'll have gone from slums to universal housing back to slums.

[Lucia Lanigan]

Housing crisis watch

This is going to be such a mess, which is probably the aim. Get councils and housing associations at loggerheads, then give contracts to private developers and consultants.

I should also highlight a passage from Camden leader Sarah Hayward’s letter to her local HAs:

"I regrettably feel that Camden will have to reconsider our strategic relationship with housing associations that voluntarily sign up to this deal. Before any proposal is adopted there must be proper consultation, parliamentary scrutiny and discussion of alternative courses of action that safeguard both housing association and council housing stock, now and for future generations – just as many of your founders envisaged. I therefore urge you to reject the NHF deal and to work alongside LB Camden and other local authorities to defend both council and housing association housing.

Many of you have said that the Conservative Government is holding a gun to your heads. If that’s true, it’s no way to do business. Local authorities can, and are, offering genuine partnership. Please walk away from this ‘deal’."

[Lucia Lanigan]

Housing crisis watch

Some more:

According to an analysis by estate agent Savills, commissioned by the LGA, extending right-to-buy to housing association tenants will cost £6bn over the next four years as almost 100,000 households take up the offer.

It is forecast that 24,000 housing association tenants a year will be able to afford buy their home, with an average discount of £63,271, costing a total of £1.5bn a year.

Most tenants taking up the right to buy (91%) will be purchasing their home for less than £100,000.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Housing crisis watch

What are the chances of building 100,000 council houses a year, without political consensus it needs to be done?

[Lucia Lanigan]

Housing crisis watch

Zero.

But no matter, because the pillocks have just announced a new scheme to build "starter homes" for people under 40 who earn £75k (London) or £50k (not-London) a year, because even those people can't really afford to buy the new shitty little Poundland-looking flats these days. They're going to fund this by removing the current affordable housing and community infrastructure obligations.

That's right: they're going to build unaffordable affordable housing by removing affordable housing obligations. And they're going to spend lots of public money failing to do so.

developers will be given permission to build homes which they can sell, provided that they build other homes. Which they can sell.

[Lucia Lanigan]

Housing crisis watch

A helpful map from that piece:

[Gangster Octopus]

Housing crisis watch

Call the fuckers' bluff.

[Lucia Lanigan]

Housing crisis watch

Others warned they would have no incentive to invest in maintenance if the government tried to stabilise rent.

The laughter from London tenants on reading this could not be more hollow.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Housing crisis watch

Lucia Lanigan wrote: Zero.

But no matter, because the pillocks have just announced a new scheme to build "starter homes" for people under 40 who earn £75k (London) or £50k (not-London) a year, because even those people can't really afford to buy the new shitty little Poundland-looking flats these days. They're going to fund this by removing the current affordable housing and community infrastructure obligations.

That's right: they're going to build unaffordable affordable housing by removing affordable housing obligations. And they're going to spend lots of public money failing to do so.

developers will be given permission to build homes which they can sell, provided that they build other homes. Which they can sell.

If anything, removing the infrastructure payments is even more stupid. You can't just stick a load of houses in places without adjusting the infrastructure too.

[Lucia Lanigan]

Housing crisis watch

More details of the Housing Bill are emerging, including the Right To Buy 2 stuff. It looked as if they were cutting that deal with housing associations so they could drop the Right to Buy bollocks from the bill, but now it seems not.

Naturally, it's got even worse. They want to make councils pay to sell their homes at discounted prices, to built 'starter homes' - which don't even have to be 'affordable' - in places that face nothing like the same housing crisis. And so on.

The Chartered Institute of Housing have called hogwash on it already.

Have parliamentary bills always been so vague in their phrasing? They want councils to sell off 'high value' flats - but what exactly would that mean?

[E10 Rifle]

Housing crisis watch

In layperson's short hand – "any way we can shift the proles out of the nice areas"

[delicatemoth]

Housing crisis watch

Camden council sells homeless hostel for luxury flats

Cool! Btw, this is the (Labour) borough where I am currently homeless and severely mentally ill. The council are currently working on assessing whether I'm vulnerable enough to deserve any help, and have already told me there's unlikely to be anything in the borough where I've lived for 12 years. Wish Corbyn would get around to sorting these appalling Labour councils out.

[My Name Is Ian]

Housing crisis watch

With my heart in my mouth, I tentatively had a look at the cost of renting two bedroom properties around here last night, because we're going to need one soon enough.

Kind of wish I hadn't, now.

[Vicarious Thrillseeker]

Housing crisis watch

Flintshire County Council to vote on whether to scrap Right-to-Buy. Story in the Daily Post

[François dan un fez]

Housing crisis watch

As well as RTB the bill introduces pay to stay which compels the HAs to raise the rents for 'well off' tenants. In London this is defined as over £40k and the consequence is a compulsion to move that rent to market levels.

In west London this would be a move from eg £160 pm to £350pw.

Not that I'm a fan but now that subsidy on social rented housing has been cut (from about £120k to about £30k per flat) the HAs have increasingly started to act like private developers.

The more enlightened plough the profit back into affordable rents ( now defined as 80 percent of market rent).

At current prices each £1m profit buys 9 affordable rented properties.

The HAs are between a rock and a hard place. They can either take the high moral ground and not develop or sup with the devil and build for profit.

The govt has now taken away all incentives to build affordable rented properties. All they want is numbers.

The temptation for associations to chase the profit will be very strong. In pretty mich every HA there is a big row going on.

For the opportunistic side of the argument you should look at the words of wisdom from the Notting hill CE.